Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips: Tony Calvin's trio of tips for Saturday at the Royal meeting

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has three tips for the final day of Royal Ascot

"Certainly, his overall profile, which incudes a Group 1 win and a second on soft ground in this race last season, suggests he should be hard to at least kick out of the frame here..."

Broome at 11/2 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook in 15:40 Royal Ascot

We've reached the final day of this year's Royal Ascot, and Tony Calvin has a trio of tips for you to consider on the afternoon...

With a risk of thunderstorms on Saturday - and if they land, we really are guessing as to the amount of rain they could cop at Ascot - it is difficult to get a handle on the going.

I am going to proceed on the basis of good to firm, and take my medicine if they get an absolute deluge which turns it on the easy side.

I will leave you to smash up Alfred Munnings at around evens on the exchange in the opening Chesham Stakes at 14:30 if you see fit - though I was very surprised to see the Betfair Sportsbook open up at 20/1 about Curragh winner Crypto Force on Thursday morning and hold the price for a good while (now 8s) - but regular readers will know that really is not my style.

And, in any case, the form of his maiden win, however impressive, is mixed and obviously there are any numbers of lurkers in here, with good words going around for the maidens Alzahir and The Foxes.

I'll pass.

Tacarib can keep Jersey Stakes rivals at Bay at a big price

My eyes also glazed over when trying to work out the Jersey Stakes at 15:05, as 15 go at it here and we have the sexy profile merchants like Samburu and Monaadah against some solid yardsticks.

I naturally gravitate to the latter in races like this and apparently there were genuine excuses for the Dewhurst runner-up Dubawi Legend's blow-out in the Guineas - I think it may have been a tooth abscess - and he sets the form bar here.

I was going to leave this race alone but then I saw Tacarib Bay was trading at 25s+ on the exchange, and I have to have a small nibble on him at 26.025/1 or bigger.

Any 20/1+ is fine (he is 20s with the Sportsbook).

Having posted both of his good efforts at two on soft ground, the sky can unleash hell through Saturday and it wouldn't bother him, and his brace of efforts this season confirm he will be fine if it stays dry.

He probably didn't achieve much when second in the Free Handicap on his return (though his jockey didn't go all out on him) but I thought he shaped really well in the Guineas for a long way in a race which strongly suggested the return to 7f here will suit.

He clearly has a lot to find, but this is only his fifth start and I will pay to find out how good he is at the price.

Take Broome to sweep past Hurricane in Hardwicke

Ideally, Broome could probably do with a bit of rain in the Hardwicke Stakes at 15:40, but then again he finished second on firm ground when a narrow second in the Breeders' Cup Turf on fast ground, so I may be getting worried over nothing.

Certainly, his overall profile, which incudes a Group 1 win and a second on soft ground in this race last season, suggests he should be hard to at least kick out of the frame here and his staying-on fifth in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on his return was very encouraging.

Apparently, he got badly injured in the stables after the Japan Cup, so his return effort over 1m2f was very much a building block for this race (go and watch the video), and I am very keen to take on the favourite Hurricane Lane on.

Sure, he is the best horse in here but we haven't seen him since the Arc, he has never raced on anything quicker than good and he is odds-on.

I wouldn't be going anywhere near him - if he is 5lb off his best then it is game on for the rest - and he makes the market for Broome at 11/2 each way with the Sportsbook.

I have played him ante-post too, and I am not deserting him now.

The supplemented Solid Stone is the other alternative at 8/1, though I fully accept betting each way into a dead-eight on possibly fraught with danger (so you may be better off getting involved in the each-way exchange market when that perks up, as original place terms stand there once it is loaded).

Royal Ascot 2022 field and screen.jpgThe racing gets very, very tricky from here on in.

I can't get involved in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at 18:10, as Trueshan would be an even-money poke if the rain made it good (or easier) ground.

If it doesn't rain he is a non-runner, and a massive Rule 4 ensues. Too messy.

The Wokingham Stakes at 17:00 is the kind of race that gives you nightmares , while the 16-runner 3yo handicap at 17:35 is contested by lightly-raced types screaming at the bit to improve by 10lb. Take your pick.

Alcohol can help us celebrate Platinum Jubilee

No, I'd rather take my chances in the oh-so-easy 27-runner Platinum Jubilee at 16:20 for my final bet of the meeting and back Alcohol Free at 25/1 each way, six places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

16/1+ is fine.

The Aussie sprinter Home Affairs could blow these away Nature Strip-stylee but I think the market is seriously underestimating Alcohol Free returning to 6f for the first time since her juvenile says (she won the Cheveley Park over the trip).

She then built up an impressive body at work over 1m at three , with Group 1 successes here in the Coronation Stakes and in the Sussex Stakes, and on those victories she is the best horse in here at these weights (she was rated 119 after Goodwood).

Now, she appears to have got very tricky as she gets older. She was a massive drifter in a first-time hood at Sandown first time up and then pulled like a train when fourth without the headgear in the Lockinge.

Looking back at the video, she did remarkably well there in the circumstances - she was actually coming back for more late on, which suggests she still has plenty of desire about her - and I just wonder whether they will let her freewheel from the front, just as she did when winning the Cheveley Park.

Of course, with 26 rivals, that could easily backfire but in terms of pure talent, then the 25s is an insult.

Let's hope for a good end to the week. It's a quiet one for me betting-wise but, as ever, I make no apologies for that. Bet as you tip, and vice-versa.

Best of luck.

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