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Ghostwriter backed to make his mark
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Merlin The Wizard looks overpriced at 20/121.00
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We have Group 1 action to look forward to this weekend on both sides of the English Channel. The ITV cameras will be based at Newmarket on Saturday with the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes taking centre stage. There are plenty of interesting contests across the card and there are good betting opportunities in amongst them.
Newmarket - 13:50: Back Ghostwriter
The first race of interest is the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (13:50). The Aidan O'Brien-trained Capulet is sure to have plenty of supporters after his excellent second to Diego Valazquez in the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown, shaping as though even better will be forthcoming with that experience under him.
I don't have anything against him bar his price and one that makes appeal at bigger odds is the Clive Cox-trained Ghostwriter.
The son of Invincible Spirit made a promising winning debut in a maiden at Newmarket in August, but the performance that really put him forward as a high-class prospect was his subsequent victory in a novice contest at Ascot earlier this month.
He jumped out to make the running that day and despite still showing signs of inexperience he ran out the comfortable winner. Aside from the visual impression, it was a performance that very much stacked up on the clock and stamped him as one that can go on to win at Group level. Conditions will suit and another improved effort from him can be expected.
Newmarket - 15:40: Back Merlin The Wizard
The Cambridgeshire (15:40) is always one of the most competitive handicaps anywhere in the racing calendar. Occasionally the race throws up the old cliché of the Group horse in a handicap such as Lord North or Wissahickon, but in the last few years it has reverted to the tendency to throw up less likely winners with the winning SPs having been 40/1, 40/1 and 25/1 in the last three years.
While he is unlikely to be quite that big of a price, the Harry & Roger Charlton-trained Merlin The Wizard should be around the 20/121.00 mark and will hopefully outrun that price. Representing the three-year-olds, the son of Camelot has proven to be progressive this year.
A strong-travelling sort, he has won three of his last four starts and seems suited by a waiting ride, with his only defeat in that sequence coming when ridden more prominently on his penultimate start at Sandown.
Merlin The Wizard produced his best effort yet when winning a handicap over a mile on the July course at Newmarket last month. He benefitted from a well-judged waiting ride that day and the form has been boosted with the runner-up going close in a competitive Racing League handicap at Wolverhampton.
This sort of race promises to suit him well, as pace and cover in front of him is what he wants and few races tend to deliver as much of that as this race. The slightly longer trip is also likely to suit, as will the prevailing ground. He looks overpriced.
Friday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin can't believe Tarawa's 12/1 at Newmarket