Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Minstrel Knight can fill the frame in Doncaster November Handicap

• Kevin Blake picks out a 14/1 E/W chance in the November Handicap

• Doncaster gets the verdict over Aintree and Wincanton

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Outlaw Peter goes in the 14:40 at Aintree this afternoon for Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls, and the consistent 8yo goes into the race on the back of being placed in all of his last five Chase starts.

The Betfair Sportsbook have boosted Outlaw Peter's price to finish in the Top 6 today from 4/61.67 to 1/12.00. To take advantage of this super-boosted price simply click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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The Virgin Bet November Handicap (15:45) is the final big handicap of the Flat season at Doncaster on Saturday and I'm here for it! It has attracted 23 runners and is just as fiercely competitive as that field size insinuates. The ground is currently soft and while there is no rain of note in the forecast, it isn't expected to dry out to a notable degree.

November Handicap Pace Map

Starting as always with the pace map. It might come as a surprise that there isn't as much pace on paper as one would expect for a race like this. Minstrel Knight (16) made all to win a valuable handicap over a mile-and-three-quarters at York last time. Valvano (12) ran well when prominent on his handicap debut over a mile-and-a-quarter last time. Lord Melbourne (8) has been racing prominently. Beamish (13) and Waxing Gibbous (15) have been racing prominently over longer trips than this. Austrian Theory (20) switched to prominent tactics when returning to winning ways over a mile-and-a-quarter last time. Three Dons (23) has been prominent in his last two starts.

With only one solid front runner in the field that is drawn wide, there isn't any guarantee that this race will be run at an average pace, and it may well be run at a steady pace. Given the size of the field, a below-average pace will place a significant emphasis on track position and luck in running for those that are covered up.

Assessing the three-year-olds

In terms of profiling, there only tends to be a handful of three-year-olds in this every year. In the last eight running's of this race that took place at Doncaster there have been a total of 26 three-year-olds that have produced two winners, and three others have hit the frame. In terms of market expectation, this represents a below-par return with a win A/E of 0.83. Notwithstanding that fact, the market is very much favouring a pair of three-year-olds in the shape of Ralph Beckett-trained Valvano and the David Menuisier-trained Master Builder.

Valvano made an excellent start to his career, making an impressive winning debut in a maiden at Nottingham in his only start as a juvenile and starting his three-year-old campaign with a fine second to Notable Speech in a conditions race at Kempton in April, a performance that now has substantial shine attached to it given the winner went on to win the 2000 Guineas and the Sussex Stakes.

Gelded after that, he was off for five months and disappointed on his return in a novice contest at Salisbury in September. He made his entry into handicap company off a mark of 97 in a 0-105 at York last month and he ran a fine race, finishing 2¾ lengths third to Bolster and Stress-free.

That form has been advertised quite well since, but the key to his chance in this race will be the suitability of this longer trip. I'm not so sure it will be ideal based on how he shaped last time, and analysis of his stride frequencies doesn't offer all that much encouragement either. I'm happy to pass over him at his price.

Stamina won't be an issue for the other three-year-old Master Builder as his last three runs have come over the longer trip of a mile-and-three-quarters.

The son of Mastercraftsman has progressed nicely since entering handicaps, finishing a fine third in the ultra-competitive Melrose Handicap at York prior to winning an only slightly less competitive handicap at Haydock in September.

Raised 7lb, he made a bold bid to follow up in another valuable three-year-old handicap at York, looking the likeliest winner having made good headway from rear to challenge only to fade late. He fared the best of those that were held up in what was a steadily run race and deserves to be marked up for that effort.

Dropping back to a mile-and-a-half should be ok for him, but he might well prove best at longer trips than this. He is very much respected, but one makes slightly more appeal than him at the prices.

Minstel Knight gets the nod with five places on offer

The one I like is one of those that got the better of Master Builder at York last time, the Ed Bethell-trained Minstrel Knight.

The son of Advertise is one of many that have revealed his sire's unlikely tendency to produce horses that stay particularly well given he was a sprinter himself and he is a particularly potent example of this as his form didn't get moving at all until he was upped to middle-distances.

Having started the season off a mark of 69, three wins have seen him improve to a mark of 88, with his most recent win in a valuable three-year-old handicap over a mile-and-three-quarters at York being by far his most notable success.

He made all in what was a steadily run race which undoubtedly put him at a tactical advantage, but he ultimately ran out the very authoritative winner and a rise of 6lb might well underestimate him. He is clearly marching forward at a rate of knots in terms of improvement and with him being the sole front runner on paper, he might well be again able to seize the tactical initiative back over this shorter trip.

The prevailing ground will hold no fears for him, and it is surprising to see him available at the odds that he is.

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