Kevin Blake

Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Lava Stream and Hanalia appeal at big prices for Oaks glory

Curragh Irish Oaks
This year's Irish Oaks looks an open renewal

The latest Big Race Verdict previews the Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Saturday and Alan Dudman is looking to utilise the four places on the Sportsbook...


Market Rasen Superboost

We have an excellent renewal of Market Rasen's highlight of the season at 15:15 today, the Summer Plate in which Daryl Carter's NAP Boombawn is a very well-backed 15/4 favourite.

However, the generous traders at Betfair has super-boosted Boombawn's price to finish in the top six from 4/91.44 to 1/12.00. If you fancy the horse to finish among the top six then simply click on the price below to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.


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No Ezeliya and this year's renewal looks open

There doesn't appear to be an outstanding filly as we head into Saturday's Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh and the betting is very much reflective of that with the top three in the market at 11/43.75, 4/15.00 and 9/25.50. Ezeliya certainly could have laid claim to that honour following her beautiful win in the Oaks at Epsom but she's already retired following a setback, and while the crossover of form comes from the third, fourth and fifth, those behind Ezeliya were firmly put in their place.

Ground conditions this week in Ireland have been on the quick side and on Friday the track description was "good", some rain is forecast, but it's wise to base any ideas on good.


Wathnan out to make presence felt

With Wathnan's spending power showing no signs of abating, I feel that if I walked to the train station two minutes quicker than normal, that they would come and buy me - a deal I would be very much open to.

Their latest big spending purchase is Lope De Lilas and a new spin on things with the gold, blue and red silks now seen in the Willie Mullins' yard.

Lope De Lilas is a 9/25.50 chance and she's priced more on connections rather than bare form, as in two starts she's got a Leopardstown Maiden win to her name. So this will require quite a jump and jolt in improvement.

It was a taking Leopardstown win for sure - and she very much appreciated the 1m2f trip from her sole start at 1m as a juvenile. She also relished the quicker ground. With her size and physique she looks made for the Classic distance, and I wouldn't be surprised further down the line to see some ambitious plans from Mullins to have a crack at something in Australia.


O'Brien pair closely matched in price

Aidan O'Brien's chances are with Content 11/43.75 and Port Fairy 4/15.00, and I think Content is a favourite there to be taken on. She promises to be better at 1m4f but has been highly tried and offers less improvement than those more unexposed.

She's also quite a hard puller - and while short of room in the Pretty Polly last time with a decent effort behind Bluestocking - stronger claims could well be with her stablemate.

Port Fairy won the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot in a good time and the visor has helped her up her game and form according to ther trainer Aidan O'Brien, who said following her Ascot victory: "She looks like she'd be a lovely Irish Oaks filly now, and she gets it well, she stays well."

The prices look wrong for me here, and I would have Port Fairy shorter than Content. Ryan Moore presumably choosing Content influences the odds and in his latest Betfair column, he said: "Content stayed on very strongly for me when third to Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn in the Pretty Polly over 1m2f here last month - that may well be the strongest piece of form on show here - and that gives you encouragement that this Galileo filly could well stay further and make her presence felt here."

Rubies Are Red, O'Brien's third runner, is highly likely in here to play "lure" duties and O'Brien never misses with tactics in this big races. James Doyle beware. Ben Coen be alert.


Assessing the French and UK challenge

Dare To Dream at 15/28.50 brings the Gallic flair, while Lava Stream, War Chimes and You Got To Me spearhead the UK deputation.

The Prix de Diane at Chantilly was Dare To Dream's latest run, and was in fifth. I can readily put a line through her as her profile suggests soft ground is needed. Plus, it will be her first try at 1m4f and the field looks to have stronger stayers - in form and in hope.

Lava Stream ran a steamer at Royal Ascot with her second in the Ribblesdale behind Port Fairy at a big price and she travelled superbly.

Indeed, she was a BSP of 30.029/1 and yet hit 1.21/5 in-running at Ascot. She is improving at a fast rate, and it's staggering to think she got turned over in a Thirsk Novice last year.

With the time such a good one in the Ribblesdale and with her improvement showing no signs of stopping (as her half-brother was a 1m4f winner), she looks good place material here at the prices.


Hanalia impressed last time for Murtagh

When Hanalia crossed the line in last month's Naas Oaks Trial, I tweeted immediately "that looks a good filly". My snap judgement will be tested here and I am pleased to see her trainer Johnny Murtagh going for this, why not?

My first impression looking at the market earlier this week was that she was a big price, and she's drifted too on the Sportsbook ahead of the weekend from 14/115.00 to 16/117.00, and that looks a knocking each-way bet considering we have four places here.

Her win at Naas was a real confident ride from Ben Coen, and clearly ridden like a good filly as he was stone last on Hanalia with three furlongs to go.

He had her on the inside then pulled her out wide, and while there was a slight bump with Greenfinch down the straight, she lost no momentum at all and I admired greatly the way she stuck her head down with a good attitude.

She obviously has to improve on that, but it looks a solid enough race and Even So was the last horse to complete the Naas Oaks Trial and Oaks back in 2020. It can be done.

As a daughter of Sea The Stars, she seems to have that lovely manner and mental ability to switch off, and she's acted on good and soft. Murtagh actually expressed some fears about soft conditions for the Curragh Maiden win, so on that alone, drying ground or quicker will not be a bother, as the Sea The Stars offspring tend to move fluently.

I am looking forward to seeing how she fares and happy to play her each-way with Lava Stream at the prices.


Now read more tips for Saturday on Betting.Betfair


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