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Boombawn 15/28.50 looks laid out for this
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Chance Rewired at 40/141.00
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ITV races covered
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Further two selections added at 17:54 on Friday
Market Rasen Superboost
We have an excellent renewal of Market Rasen's highlight of the season at 15:15 today, the Summer Plate in which Daryl Carter's NAP Boombawn is a very well-backed 15/44.75 favourite.
However, the generous traders at Betfair has super-boosted Boombawn's price to finish in the top six from 4/91.44 to 1/12.00. If you fancy the horse to finish among the top six then simply click on the price below to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.
Back Boombawn to finish Top 6 in 15:15 Market Rasen (was 4/9)
Listen to Racing Only Bettor...
Last year's winner, Al Asay 10/34.33, makes his seasonal return and looks like a tempting price to overturn his owner-mate and three-year-old Alyanaabi 4/51.80. First, Al Aasy has a record of 5115 when returning from a break, with the latest easily forgiven, having been off the track for 420 days. He is 2/3 over today's 1m2f distance and is undoubtedly the race's class act and form horse.
It is a bit mystifying why his owner-mate Alyanaabi is such a short-price favourite. On his return, he was shaped in need of the run in the 2,000 Guineas and performed much better in the St James's Palace Stakes without threatening the principals. I need help to see where the form comes from to make him such a short price in this field, and perhaps that is reliant on improvement for the extra two furlongs or the market, knowing Al Asay is not straight for today. After all, it is unusual that the two run under the same ownership, and perhaps there is another target for the William Haggas horse down the line (they have won this for the last two years).
I am not as confident in Jim Crowley's choices these days, so I wouldn't favour one over the other on jockey bookings. Still, perhaps the Owen Burrows horse Alyanaabi will favour this small field, which may emphasize speed.
A tactical race wouldn't suit Savvy Victory or Sons And Lovers, so they are passed over. Phantom Flight is interesting at 9/110.00. He has moved yards and proven no match for an on-song Al Asay in his last two outings, but he is the probable pace angle in the race on this seasonal debut.
If Al Aasy is fit, he must be the call, but playing Phantom Flight in the W/O market may be the niche angle if you want to take on Alyanaabi. It will be interesting to see what the market makes of the pair, but there is no bet for now.
I won't waste your time here. I've had no bet, and I have zero interest in the race, effectively a 0-125 branded as a Class 3--woeful stuff. However, Dan Barber made solid cases for two on the Racing Only Bettor Podcast--check those out. Best of luck if you're playing.
Kyle Of Lochalsh - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - ran a quite remarkable race to finish third at Royal Ascot, and that is the best form on offer, with the front three pulling well clear of Temporize in fourth.
He is a four-year-old who is firmly on the up and is fancied to appreciate this return to Newbury, in which he scored in good style on his only visit.
He remains unexposed on the turf after just five starts, and he is very lightly raced beyond 1m6f with Royal Ascot (2m4f), his only real attempt with the other on the back of a seasonal break.
Hollie Doyle gets on well with him, and the negatives are tough to find, with his stamina a great asset. Naqeeb continues to be favoured by the market, but his sole claim to this race is that he won a slowly run affair at Haydock over 1m6f in which he clung on at the finish - his stamina is far from confirmed. He has hardly been pulling up trees this season, either.
That same angle is used against Shagpyle, who won when stepping up in trip in a Class four at Ffos Las, but the time was pedestrian, and he looked to cling on there.
Prydwen looks held by the handicapper for now so it's Dancing In Paris fancied to give the selection most to think about.
Back Kyle Of Lochalsh at 7/24.50 or bigger.
14:25 Newbury - Back Kyle Of Lochalsh
I will take a very small each-way chance on Rewired - 40/141.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who was a consistent, steady improver last season and left the impression he had more to offer. This race has been won in recent years by horses at the top of the weights, and Luke Scott is a good value for his five-pound claim to help ease the burden of 11st8lb.
The six-year-old remains unexposed in this sphere and relishes a sound surface. He arrives off a short 99-day break, having shaped very well from well off the gallop in an Apprentice race at Aintree in April, but the ground there and in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso in March both went against him.
Still, he outran his 50/151.00 odds at Aintree and was only a 12/113.00 chance for the race at Kelso. He is better judged on his excellent performance at Taunton on a sound surface when recording a good circuit time figure when trouncing his rivals by six widening lengths.
Before his two easily forgivable recent runs, he had been in the first three on 12 of his last 14 starts, and in his career, he has finished in the first three on 13 of his 16 starts over hurdles. Today, he has optimum conditions - a sharp 2m on good ground - and further improvement will come.
Back him at 20/121.00 or bigger.
14:40 Market Rasen - Back Rewired E/W
The money came for Lake Forest - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot when making his seasonal return, and he ran a race full of promise, considering he was conceding racecourse fitness to all his rivals. That's why the Betfair Sportsbook is looking to duck him at 4/15.00.
According to reports, he is having trouble getting fit at home. Connections said last season that he is "fat and lazy," which is why he made his seasonal return at the same time last term. Although he was a winner the first time out at Haydock last season and only second on his next outing at Newmarket, I am not convinced he likes the HQ venue. Away from Newmarket, his record reads 211, and I expect a bigger performance today than Ascot.
He is potentially very smart indeed, and he is entitled to come on for Ascot. This looks like an excellent spot. He will stay further than this, but he has a sharp turn of foot and arrives on an upward curve.
There are doubts about a few of his rivals, enhancing his claims. Regional has an excellent record at 5f, and although he won the Betfair Sprint Cup over six furlongs last term, he is 3-3 at the Haydock track and has not run here. At the same time, Mitbaahy left him standing still at the Curragh on his last crack at this trip, and he was 0-7 before that, going back to his Haydock win in 2021.
Elite Status has had knee issues, which ruled him out of Royal Ascot, so he must prove he is over that. He went downhill following the same problem last term. James's Delight needs soft ground, and the remainder is opposable.
Back Lake Forest at 3/14.00 or bigger.
15:00 Newbury - Back Lake Forest
A smashing renewal of the Summer Plate, but firm preference is for Boombawn - 15/28.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who looks to have been lined up for this by the Skelton yard, and there isn't a better pairing than Dan and Harry to target a handicap. This would be a large notch on Skelton's bedpost in the 2024/25 Champion Trainer title race, even at this early stage. With Skelton already the best part of £200,000 ahead of Paul Nicholls, he will surely have this firmly in his sight.
After three runs over fences, Boombawn looks to have been laid out for this race. He secured a very easy and cosy victory over a good field in a Beginners Chase at Warwick back in May before being given a tender ride behind today's rival, Al Zaraqaan, at Cartmel. Harry Skelton did not pick up the stick despite his mount jumping fluently down the back, bringing him into contention easily.
He was given a bump ride finish and allowed the eventual winner to scoot on by. It was a similar story at Worcester when Boombawn finished a well-held second to Paul Nicholls' Matterhorn when Skelton lacked the urgency to pick up the winner.
Interestingly, his last two chase runs have come over 2m - a trip too short. Today, he steps back up in distance, and his career record over 2m4f plus reads 10119. Four of those five runs have come in Class 2 /Grade 3 company, and when tackling his favoured good ground, the record reads 1119. He is unexposed over fences, a brilliant jumper, needs good ground, and is handicapped to have a say, considering he is only five pounds higher than when landing a good race at Kempton on his seasonal debut last term (apologies, I said Lanzarote Handicap on the podcast).
There's lots to like in this company, and I firmly expect Boombawn to play a strong hand in the finish. Back the selection at 6/17.00 or bigger.
15:15 Market Rasen - Back Boombawn E/W
There's no bet in this race for me, with any amount open to further improvement. I felt Miss Collada had been given a fair opening mark on the balance of her form. She was three lengths behind Mountain Breeze at Newmarket earlier this year and has improved leaps and bounds in two starts since, and with three runs in quick succession, it looks as though connections have had this - a race they have won four times - since.
Larchill Lass was another one on the shortlist, but this is a minefield for me.
A strong case can be made for one or two of these, but on the whole, they are relatively exposed. That is not the case with Shadow Dance--11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook--who shaped as though he would be much better for the run at Royal Ascot when given an impossible task.
The four-year-old is entirely unexposed at staying distances and finished his seasonal last term with an excellent second to the now 111-rated Group 3 winner Alsakib in the Old Rowley Cup. That form is clear as day, but the market has taken his down-the-field Royal Ascot run literally when, in fact, he was shaped like a horse who retained plenty of ability and would improve for fitness. He had an impossible task from a wide draw at the rear of the field, but he caught the eye.
Today's easier surface will suit him much better, and he is a potential group horse in the making, having clocked a good time figure at Newmarket last year--one of the reasons this column kept persisting with Alsakib. A recent gelding operation, now with a run under his belt and sure to be suited by this smaller field scenario, he can get back on the upgrade.
Back the selection at 11/43.75 or bigger.
15:55 Ripon - Back Shadow Dance
Jungle Mac - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was given a good mention via collateral form in a recent column as one to watch.
The three-year-old looks very well handicapped on his recent form, and despite being a seven-raced Maiden on turf, he is fancied to go in today.
He kicked off the season on turf with an eye-catching fourth at Newmarket at the Guineas meeting when sticking on at the death to grab fourth behind Key To Cotai. The winner is 11 lb higher in the handicap, the runner-up is six pounds higher, and numerous winners have been down the field.
He improved at Doncaster to reverse the Newmarket form with the runner-up and finished third but bumped into the subsequent Britannia winner when attempting to make all the running. The runner-up looks like a winner in waiting (yet to run).
He improved again in defeat when narrowly denied by the useful Treasure Time at this Newmarket July venue when beaten a head as he attempted to rally back on the line. Treasure Time is ten pounds higher (and will rate higher) in the handicap after an excellent neck second to the useful First Conquest over the same course and distance at the July meeting. The fourth and sixth both won next time out.
Finally, on his latest outing, he found only Al Shabab Storm to be too good at Chester, who subsequently won a listed event over the same course and distance the next time out. The track didn't suit him, and the figures produced from major platforms doubted the worth of the form, but he stuck to the task well and finished a strong second, which they underestimated clearly. In four starts this term, he has risen just three pounds in the handicap and today returns to Newmarket's July course, which recorded his best RPR of 90 and drops back into Class 4 company.
The biggest danger is Dutch Decoy, who has an excellent 3-3 record at this venue and is dropped in grade for the first time out of Class 2 company into the lowest grade race he has contested since winning at Hamilton in 2022. There is a case to back them both, but I will stick with the improving youngster.
18:00 Newmarket - Back Jungle Mac