Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Kinross can fend off the July Cup youngsters

• Money for Vandeek after glorious Friday for Crisford

• Add Jasour to the mix at double figures for Cox

• Champions Full Gallop: Six-part docuseries coming soon to ITV

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Ryan Moore Superboost

Ryan rides the 7/24.50 favourite Qirat in the 14:50 at Newmarket this afternoon, and with the 3yo finishing in the frame in four of his five career starts to date he is a strong contender to be at least placed again today.

He was initially put in at 1/21.50 to finish in the top four but the Betfair Sportsbook have kindly super-boosted his price to 4/51.80 to be in the first four. To place the bet you can click on the price in the below banner to go directly to a pre-loaded betslip.

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Listen to Racing Only Bettor Saturday Tips...

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Inisherin out to prove himself in top company

We're still playing games with the weather ahead of the July Cup on Saturday. Friday's opening race at Newmarket on times indicated good ground, with conditions drying out, but some rain is forecast for early Saturday morning up to midday.

One salient point to note is the return to form for the Crisfords - who started off with two winners on Friday and their big hope is Vandeek for Group 1 honours. He missed Royal Ascot and he was cut on the Sportsbook on Friday afternoon into 15/44.75.

I penned the antepost column at the start of the week and wasn't totally in love with the idea of backing Inisherin at 2/13.00 on Monday, and not a lot has changed since then despite the small drift to 9/43.25. He finished sixth in the 2,000 Guineas behind Notable Speech but has been a revelation dropped down to sprinting with wins at Haydock and the Commonwealth Cup.

Ground wise, he has wins on soft and quick conditions, so there isn't a problem there. My only nagging doubt with such a short price for a Group 1 is that I didn't think it was a particularly strong Commonwealth Cup. There's a line from the Classic novel "A man is not to be condemned by his class," so I am there to be proved wrong.

He is one of four three year-olds in receipt from their elders and that age bracket has a decent record in the race with five winners since 2014. The sprinting division at this level is there to be shaken up.

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Money for Vandeek

The more Simon Crisford won and hit the target on Friday (ably assisted by Crisford junior), the more Vandeek's price contracted.

Following the yard's second winner of the day, thus taking two of the first two, Vandeek was cut on the Sportsbook into 15/44.75 and clear second favourite.

I've missed the price from the start of the week as he was nearly double that, and Crisford gave an update on ITV on Friday admitting his horses weren't quite right going into Ascot - hence why Vandeek missed an engagement there due to his bloods that were unsatisfactory.

One telling nugget came out of the interview as Crisford said Vandeek is a horse that needs to race. How will he fare after missing Ascot?

He has 4L to make up with Inisherin on the run in the Sandy Lane back at the start of the season, and one has to think he wasn't quite right there. Maybe it was the bloods? Maybe it was the soft conditions? Maybe he didn't train on?

There was no doubt he was a brilliant juvenile and was pure speed - a real rocket. But there are enough question marks to let him go, especially now the price keeps disappearing in front of my eyes.

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Kinross can build on return at Newcastle

Kinross was third in the race 12 months ago behind Shaquille and went on to have a good season with placed efforts in the Prix De La Foret over 7f and runner-up on Champions Day in the big sprint. He did win the Ascot sprint in October in 2022 with a smooth success assisted by soft ground, and we are pinning our hopes on some ease in the going to get the very best out of him.

His return in the Group 3 Chipchase was a perfectly fine effort last time, and that should put him spot on here. He's a proven older horse in the race, goes 6f and 7f and is a multiple Group 1 winner and holds his form well.

He was held up in the race last term, and with that 7f ability, he'll be played late I am sure. He travelled very strongly in the Lennox at Goodwood last term and was in touch with the leaders, and that's the sort of ride I envisage for Saturday.

I still make him the bet at 6s.

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Tiber still has questions to answer

Mill Stream was one at a double figure price on Friday that attracted interest and movement - as the 16s went and he was into 12/113.00.

The 4yo broke through at Group 2 level to win the Duke Of York earlier in the season and ran a fair enough race at Royal Ascot Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 6f behind Khaadem - and on that piece of form, Khaadem is massive at 25/126.00.

One thing we know with Khaadem is that he will certainly be played late. Jamie Spencer delivered him with more cunning than Agrippa at Royal Ascot in 2022, and it was Oisin Murphy that took charge to win in this year's race. It's a big ride for Billy Loughnane, and Khaadem finished fifth in 2023 behind Shaquille.

River Tiber is held on two runs with Vandeek from last year and he's trying sprinting for the first time this season following efforts over 1m and 7f.

He was very disappointing at Royal Ascot in the 7f Jersey Stakes, so he has something to prove, especially with a return to sprinting.

His 2yo form was quite something with a massive win on debut and a Coventry Stakes victory, but he had a setback after Royal Ascot last year, and if I am assessing him on that flurry of wins early on in his career, he's been disappointing. In terms of ground, I had him down as one that needs soft to bring out the very best in him.

He's at a crossroads in terms of the trip and that's not enough to promote an attachment here.

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Jasour the one who looks overpriced at 14/115.00

Jasour is the headscratcher - as on two runs against Vandeek last year at Deauville and Newmarket he has no chance, but he was hard puller and there were excuses in both.

I don't think the testing conditions suited in France at all, and he gave himself no chance by refusing to settle in the Middle Park - and he might have been over the top by then.

However, Clive Cox can nurture these sprinters well and I still don't think we've seen the best of his abilities.

In two runs this term he landed the money easily in the Commonwealth Cup Trial and was third with a return at Royal Ascot behind Inisherin.

It wasn't a strong edition as I've outlined previously, but he's one to monitor if the ground dries out and he might be able to get closer or indeed turn the tables on Inisherin, and at 14/115.00, that looks too big, especially as there are four places on the Sportsbook. Plus, Newmarket suits him and he really looked the part in winning the July Stakes here in 2023.

With plenty of pace too, they've had to remodel him in terms of holding him up, and that suits.

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Now read more racing tips for Saturday

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