Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Hoping for a Dreamy result in Fillies' Mile

• O'Brien runners can dictate average pace

• Desert Flower a worthy fav and can uphold May Hill form

• Dreamy's form can be upgraded and she's worth chancing

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It is fair to say that that the Fillies' Mile (15:35) at Newmarket is one of the most impactful two-year-old races in the British racing calendar. Not only does it have a long history of producing future champions such as Minding, Laurens, Iridessa and Inspiral, it has just as impressive a record of producing world-class broodmares.

In the last 10 years alone the race has produced some spectacular broodmares of the future. Remarkably, the 1-2-3 in the 2014 renewal have gone on to produce the likes of City Of Troy, Fallen Angel, Shadow Of Light and Earthlight. The next two renewals of the race after that have produced Henry Longfellow and Auguste Rodin. That is just a taste, but you get the idea.

This is a race with serious Classic implications for the following year, but also a far wider long-term impact on the breed.

This year's renewal looks to be a fascinating one on paper that will see many of the most powerful sets of colours in European racing go to battle.

Ballydoyle can control average pace

In terms of pace, Ballet Slippers (5) has made the running in her last two starts in novice company and is down the pecking order of her stable's runners, so she looks the likeliest leader. Desert Flower (2) and Dreamy (4) have been prominent in recent starts. Tabiti (1) has made much of the running in both her starts to date including a Group over six furlongs last time. However, she steps up in trip here and her connections might not want to be as forward with her at this higher level.

Anna Swan (7) made all to win a novice contest over seven furlongs last time, but she set a below-par pace in what was a small field and is far from sure to be as forward at this much higher level at this longer trip.

My read of the above is that the three Ballydoyle fillies, which are drawn beside each other, might well look to control the race with Ballet Slippers and Dreamy setting the fractions and January following them in cover. I don't expect they'll want to go much quicker than an average pace.

Desert Flower likely to confirm form with January

Where else can we start here but with the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, as the form of the race is dominating the top of this market.

On that occasion Desert Flower got the better of January by 1½ lengths and the obvious question is whether it is likely to play out any differently this time? My view is that it is unlikely to be all that different.

Desert Flower came into that race with less experience than January and while she got first run on her to an extent, she was well on top of January at the line. In mechanical terms, they are different types with Desert Flower being a notably longer, slower strider than January. If the rematch was taking place over seven furlongs I would give January more of a shot, but over this course and distance I think Desert Flower will uphold the form.

Dreamy fancied to birdge gap to May Hill form horses

However, Desert Flower isn't my selection. That burden will be placed on Aidan O'Brien's second string contender Dreamy.

Being a daughter of American Pharoah out of the Yorkshire Oaks winner Tapestry, she is very much bred to be best as a three-year-old over middle-distances which is what makes her form thus far so encouraging.

Having made a winning debut in a valuable fillies' maiden over seven furlongs at Goodwood, she was sent straight into stakes company to contest a Group 3 over a mile at the Curragh in August. Bucked into a prominent position, she took an enthusiastic grip early, but was still green when coming under pressure. Ridden considerately under just hands-and-heels until entering the final furlong, she responded very generously to stronger pressure and powered on inside the final furlong to beat Fiery Lucy by 1½ lengths.

The data very much backs up the visual impression, as Dreamy did something a little bit unusual in the final furlong. Her furlong-by-furlong average stride frequency was at its highest in the final furlong. Most horses will peak earlier in the race in this regard and their stride frequency will drop in the final furlong. That she was able to increase her average stride frequency in the final furlong speaks for just how strong she was in the closing stages.

This entitles her effort to be upgraded and one doesn't have to upgrade it all that far to put her on the tails of those representing the May Hill form.

The fact that Tom Marquand rides Dreamy rather than Ryan Moore will be seen as a negative by many as Ryan rarely finds himself on the wrong one. However, he can only ride one of them and I suspect there was very little between them in considerations.

The tightness between them isn't reflected in their prices at the time of writing, so my preference is very much for Dreamy in what promises to be a brilliant and informative race.

Now read Ryan Moore on his Friday rides at Newmarket here.