Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Fortune can Favour the brave in Morebattle Hurdle

• Morebattle Hurdle gets this week's Big Race Verdict treatment

• Favourite makes little appeal at her price given hike in weights

• Alan King runner will be suited by ground and likely strong pace

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Grey Dawning is the 4/61.67 favourite to win Kelso's 13:45 today and his trainer Dan Skelton has a very  impressive 37.5% strike rate at the Scottish venue. However, if you fancy Grey Dawning to win then you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00!

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The Morebattle Hurdle (15:30) at Kelso heads up a card that Kelso has really pushed to make relevant in the traditionally quiet slot just before the storm that is the Cheltenham Festival.

All concerned have to be commended for pumping up prize money levels to give themselves the very best chance of attracting competitive fields and pulling at least some sets of connections away from the bright lights of Cheltenham. Their efforts have certainly been rewarded in the feature race, as attracting 18 runners to any handicap hurdle outside of the biggest spring festivals is a rare feat and it promises to produce a very competitive contest.

Above average tempo extremely likely

In terms of the likely shape of the race with regard to pace, there are plenty of candidates to push the pace and this can be expected to be run at an above-par tempo.

Alnilam made the running in his last two starts, including when winning a valuable handicap hurdle last time. Wilful is a regular pace pusher. Slugger has made all in two of his last three starts. Milldam made all to win his latest start in a handicap hurdle. N'Golo tends to make the running or race prominently. 

Weight hike means Vischio makes little appeal at a short pirce

The Emmet Mullins-trained Vischio is at the top of the market and it is easy to see why. She had been a wonderful servant for his previous connections in no less than 59 starts under both codes, but was sold for €52,000 in November to Jack Cantillon of Syndicates.Racing with a view to aiming her at the valuable mares' handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Switched to Mullins, he duly sweetened her up and delivered her to the long-term target in great form to produce a career-best effort in victory. 

Mind, for all the style and value of the win, the quality of the race perhaps didn't match the prize money pot it offered. The form has taken some knocks since then, but the biggest blow that Vischio has taken was dealt out by the handicapper. Raised 10lb in Ireland, the British handicapper has gone 4lb higher than that leaving her substantially more burdened in what is a much stronger race.

The likely pace of the race is sure to suit her and history has shown that Emmet Mullins can pull great improvement from his new recruits, but on balance she doesn't make appeal at her short price.

Fortune to Favour the brave

The one that does make appeal is the Alan King-trained Favour And Fortune.

The seven-year-old has the right sort of profile for a race like this, competing at Grade 1 level as a novice prior to finishing his first campaign over hurdles with a flourish by winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Similar to this, that was a fiercely-competitive race and Favour And Fortune seemed to relish the test that it presented, travelling well and perhaps hitting the front earlier than ideal on his way to beating Bialystok by ½-length.

In contrast with the treatment dished out to Vischio for winning a weaker race, Favour And Fortune was only raised 3lb for that win.

Fast forward to this season and Favour And Fortune gives every impression of having been brought along steadily with a view to spring targets. An unremarkable return to action at Ascot was followed by a much more encouraging effort when fourth in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury. That run should put him spot on for this race and the less testing ground is also sure to suit.

The promised strong pace will also play to his strengths. The one little concern about his prospects on paper is that Alan King has been a bit quiet in recent weeks, but his horses have been knocking on the door and it isn't enough to put me off the chance of Favour And Fortune. He looks to have a really solid chance.

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