Irish Grand National Tips: Kevin Blake has wan to consider at 10/1

• Irish National gets Kev's Big Race Verdict treatment

• Decent pace likely with plenty of front-runners

• Mullins 'second string' has natural improvement to come

The Irish Grand National takes centre stage at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday.

It is well established as one of the most prestigious and historic races in the entire Irish National Hunt calendar, though much comment has been made about the fact that this year's renewal has failed to fill and the rating of the top weight is the lowest it has been for over a decade.

Considering the race is worth a staggering €500,000, this is disappointing, but the race remains a fiercely difficult puzzle to decipher even with just 21 runners.

Evidence to suggest a decent pace

It is far from unusual for people to assume that very competitive handicaps with big fields like this will be run at a solid pace, but that is far from always the case, so it is always worth putting together a pace map to get a feel for how it might pan out.

Intense Raffles has made all to win both his starts in Ireland thus far, albeit in much less competitive races than this. Royal Thief has helped push the pace in his last two starts in handicap chases.

Favori De Champdou has tended to race prominently or make the running over fences so far and will be helped by returning to this right-handed track given his tendency to jump a bit to his right. Daily Present helped push the pace when winning his penultimate start. Frontal Assault ran better when helping to push the pace last time.

To summarise, there looks to be enough pace candidates on paper to ensure that the race is run at least at an average pace and quite possibly stronger than that.

So, what is going to win?

More needed for Jonny to have a Good Time

Good Time Jonny is a horse that has attracted plenty of column inches this season.

With him having won the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 142 last year, many suspected he was being lined up for a bid for the Kim Muir Handicap Chase back at that meeting this year.

However, despite him having not at all impressed with his jumping since returned to fences this season, the British handicapping team took a very aggressive view of his form over fences and gave him a mark 10lb higher than his already harsh-looking mark in Ireland.

Unsurprisingly, his connections elected not to run on such poor terms and this is the target they have picked for him.

While he is sure to popular given he looks well handicapped relative to his form over hurdles, what he has actually achieved over fences so far is very much open to question and vast improvement will be needed for him to be competitive in a race this deep.

Mullins 'second string' weighted to go well

The one I find myself drawn to is the Willie Mullins-trained We'llhavewan.

The nine-year-old has made relentless progress since joining Mullins in 2022, primarily over hurdles.

Having advanced to a mark of 136 over hurdles, he was heavily fancied to capitalise on a much lower mark of 120 over fences on just his fourth start over fences in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Punchestown in February. Ridden positively, he looked set to prevail on the home turn, but he was ultimately outstayed by the winner Where It All Began.

However, there is plenty of hope that he will still be able to capitalise on his mark over fences if returned to the more patient riding tactics that showed him to such good effect until his recent switch to more forward tactics.

Given that he has had just four runs over fences, he may well have some natural improvement in him too as his jumping was as good as it's been on his latest start.

The fact that Paul Townend doesn't ride will result in him going off a longer price than he would otherwise, but having sweated down to his minimum of 10-2 to ride him in the Grand National Trial back in February, there is every chance that Townend wasn't able to do the weight of 10-1 to ride him in this contest.

Kieran Callaghan takes over the ride and given that his two biggest successes have come in the Mayo National and the Cork National on lightly-weighted runners trained by Willie Mullins, having him claiming 5lb off him is far from a negative. He looks to have a big chance.

Now read Rachael Blackmore on her Easter Monday rides here.