Epsom Derby Big Race Verdict: Dante winner can defy the drift for a Classic 9/2 win

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Cellini's claims and form excellent

With Charlie Appleby and Godolphin "in absentia" for Saturday's Derby at 16:00, the sage of Epsom Aidan O'Brien has four players to claim his 12th Epsom Classic.

And let us begin with Ballydoyle, as the operation are peerless in terms of tactics executed for a big race and current 2/13.00 on the Sportsbook Benvenuto Cellini will have his chums around him, and maybe plotting to make the path to glory as complicated as can be for the others.

He was a strong juvenile, and took the unusual route of a Killarney Maiden win, to Leopardstown and then a third in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster in heavy - a race that perhaps now has lost some its sheen with Action in second, but the winner Hawk Mountain nabbed a runner-up spot in the French Derby last week.

Benvenuto Cellini's reappearance this term was far from a disaster, winning the Chester Vase by 4L at a price of 2/91.22 with thin opposition, but the Vase on the Roodee is a good route for Epsom, and many forget the great Shergar won at Chester in 1981.

Lambourn won the Vase and Derby double last term and Benvenuto Cellini will have zero issue staying. His sire Frankel has had 32 runners over 1m4f at Epsom with five winners and 11 places at fair numbers 16% win and 34%.

Timeform handed Benvenuto Cellini a rating of 117p after that, calling him "every inch a potential Derby winner."

His Chester victory showcased his extravagant action with a stride length of over 26 feet.

The main rival - a collector's item?

No, it's not Poker, who cost 4.3million and looks the biggest waste of money since another Amo horse and officially rated 80, equates to £53,750 per BHA point and could be the most expensive front-runner in the history of horse racing on Saturday.

The atmosphere in Amo headquarters after Poker's Haydock defeat must have resembled a waiting room in a dentist. Although the team do have Ancient Egypt here, and presumably Poker is in to play the role of hare with Ancient Egypt stepping up in trip from 1m2f at Newmarket shoyuld stay on pedigree as another Frankel.

But the main rival here is Item, Dante winner and yet another son of Frankel, so becomes the de facto real deal and main challenger, and he too was awarded a figure of 117p from Timeform after his win at York - the key trial and most valid.

He still looked inexperienced at times across the Knavesmire, but with the first two racing on perhaps too early, Item's stamina was drawn out well, although he will need to relax a little better. He is a Frankel after all, and they do show exuberant and headstrong signs.

Item was officially rated just 93 ahead of York, so he's fast improving and he looks a pure stayer for me, my only doubt is a nagging one about the going but I do like an improving stayer on the up for the race.

Colin Keane has ridden around Epsom six times prior to the Oaks and Friday and at that stage, hadn't had a winner. His trainer Andrew Balding saddled Bonfire to Dante success in 2012 but hated every second in Camelot's 2012 Derby. Item looks positively chilled compared to Bonfire.

Maltese connections cross with the forecast?

It's been far too long since William Haggas had a Derby winner, and I don't know which irks Haggas more? Being called Willie or having Shaamit as his only colts' Classic win.

Maltese Cross has a lot to offer. A son of 'The Greatest' in Sea The Stars, and a Lingfield Derby Trial winner on good to firm going. I do not doubt one bit his stamina, and a slog will draw him firmly into the picture, but I worry the ground is softer than ideal.

Marquand said post Lingfield: "He's had to battle a couple of times, and the pleasing thing is where I thought the ceiling might be after Newbury, it wasn't there, and I still don't think I quite found out where it is today which is the bit I'm most happy about.

"I'm sure William (Haggas) will say the same and he's an extremely exciting horse. He's won a trial and is an interesting horse now. He'll relish the trip in the Derby, as he did here, the track won't be a problem as he's shown today and he likes fast ground. He's every bit ready to go and we'll find out if he's good enough on the day."

I do worry about the last bit "he likes fast ground". His Hollywood film producer owner George Waud has echoed the same about the going, and the draw and having Waud in the race against Brant makes for an interesting side story.

The enigma

Pierre Bonnard fascinates me - a horse with million dollar looks and potentially million lira battling qualities judged on Leopardstown last time.

He lost out to James J Braddock, although remains shorter in the Derby betting with 5/16.00 playing 17/29.50, but it was the head carriage of Pierre Bonnard that completely put me off and took an age to go by Endorsement down the straight.

Bare ratings and a second in a Derby Trial obviously is form not to be ignored, but I did come away from Leopardstown thinking he was a shirker. I hope not, as he possesses dreamy looks. However determination ranks above dash, and he needs to display the former.

"He's a lot better," Aidan O'Brien said to Sky Sports recently. "He's improved a lot since Leopardstown. We thought he would - and he has. He's a different horse now."

"Because he was so big we needed to let him thrive over the winter at his own pace. We didn't need to stop him or force him. Then when we started him back, we had to start him back very gently because he's such a big frame of a horse and we didn't want to have him too light early on.

"He was just about ready to start the first time, and nothing went right for him in the race but he came forward great. Then the next time he obviously came forward again and ran a very good race.

O'Brien's quotes can sometimes be treated with a pinch of salt, ie the fastest ever, parachute, blah blah blah, but quirky horses take to Epsom.

Draw details and pace map

Stall 10 has been the stall exemplar for a Derby winner, with 12 winners supplied since 1967 and Lambourn came from 10 last year and that position also has the highest expected winners (xW anyone?). Next door stall nine has given five winners and it is 15 winners from stalls nine to 12 since 1988.

Stalls two and 11 have had no luck and no wins since the gates were introduced and Adayar and City of Troy were winners and were able to score from stall 1, previously long regarded as the draw no-one wanted.

Maltese Cross has stall one on Saturday, and Tom Marquand will be tested from there to the max.

FRONT RUNNERS: Action (11), A Taste Of Glory (7), Poker? (4),

PROMINENT: Pierre Bonnard (8), Ancient Egypt (10), Maltese Cross (1), Christmas Day (5), Benvenuto Cellini (12), Bay Of Brilliance (9).

MID-DIVISION: Maltese Cross (1), James J Braddock (13).

HOLD-UP: Item (3), Rebel Rocker (14).

Alan Dudman's Derby 1-2-3 Verdict

I've long been a fan of Item, and while I have a nagging doubt about the going, I think the way he races and his balanced style, I can see him taking to the course well and with stamina, he might have a little more class than Maltese Cross

Maltese Cross has the stamina chops for sure, but maybe not the soft ground chops, so I want to give Pierre Bonnard a chance to finally delver what his physique and imposing looks tell us.

Benvenuto Cellini's stride length and Chester win make him a tough cookie and will stay, but Item is improving and still could improve further and he gets my vote despite the drift in the betting from Thursday to Friday.

1) Item

2) Benvenuto Cellini

3) Pierre Bonnard

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