Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: King runner looks overpriced in Challow Novices' Hurdle

• Promising Wilmount faces toughest test yet

• Nicholls pair could have big say in the race

• Lookaway is the form pick and may be overpriced

The bonanza of racing action over the Christmas period continues on Saturday and the 15:00 Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury is the race of most interest on the day.

The Grade 1 has attracted a competitive field of domestic novices. It is slightly surprising that no Irish trainer chanced their arm with a runner in it given the relative strength of the novice hurdle divisions in Ireland, but that will prove to be a small mercy for the British trainers looking to claim this valuable prize for themselves.

Nicholls' Farnoge could disrupt lead

In terms of the likely pace setup of the race, the clearest candidate to lead is without doubt the Neil King-trained Lookaway. He has made the running in each of his last four starts over hurdles including against hardened handicappers in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham last time.

The one potential fly in his prospects of an uncontested lead is the Paul Nicholls-trained Farnoge. The five-year-old has made all to win both his starts over hurdles. Those wins came in calmer waters than Lookaway has been contesting, but given Nicholls also has the well fancied Captain Teague in this race, it wouldn't be a surprise if he sends Farnoge forward to ensure that Lookaway doesn't have it all his own way.

The Jukebox Man is another that made all to win a five-runner novice hurdle at Ffos Las last time, but may be content to take a lead in this much deeper company.

Can favourite Willmount deliver on his promise?

At the time of writing the favourite is the Nicky Henderson-trained Willmount. The son of Blue Bresil impressed when winning a point-to-point at Comea prior to changing hands for £340,000 and joining Neil Mulholland. He didn't reappear for a almost a year after that, but did so in impressive style when winning a bumper at Doncaster and winning another bumper at that track under a penalty in March.

Switched to Nicky Henderson over the summer, he made his hurdling debut over an extended two miles at Newbury in November. The lack of quality in his opposition was summed up by his starting price of 1/3, but the style of his wide-margin victory was pleasing.

Making the running, he showed a very good appetite for jumping, exhibiting a fluent and measured technique. He stretched the field from before the third-last flight and soon had them in trouble, winning easily by 13 lengths. The level of what he achieved was unspectacular, but his powerful trainer holds him in high regard and there is obvious promise of much better to come.

Though, it goes without saying, whether one is willing to back him as the favourite in this much deeper company based on promise rather than product is a pertinent question for all to consider.

One with a similarly unexposed profile is the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Johnnywho. He is unbeaten in a point-to-point, a bumper and a novice hurdle, with his winning hurdling debut at Carlisle having impressed many with its style.

Mind you, there was plenty of room for improvement in that performance. His jumping was only ok, with him ballooning a couple of hurdles and in general jumping more like a chaser in the making. Of course, he might flatten out with that experience under his belt, but he'll need to.

One thing that will suit Johnnywho is a switch to this left-handed track as he showed a tendency to adjust to his left at Carlisle. Again, he is another that is priced more so on promise than product and it will be fascinating to see how the market assesses his chance.

Captain Teague is a solid proposition

One of those we know more about at this stage is the Paul Nicholls-trained Captain Teague. A smart performer in bumpers, he proved much the best of the British-trained contingent when third in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

He was thrown into deeper waters than usual for his hurdling debut in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Chepstow in October, but he proved more than equal to the task, winning by just shy of 10 lengths.

For all that end product was pleasing, there was scope for improvement in his jumping technique as he gave many of his hurdles superfluous air and didn't show much grace on two occasions that he got in too close to his obstacles.

Captain Teague's second start over hurdles came under a penalty in a Grade 2 novices' hurdle at Cheltenham's November meeting. His jumping was a bit better on that occasion, for all that it was still more solid than slick and he again got himself in a muddle when getting too tight to the fourth-last hurdle.

Interestingly, his rider elected to take a wide passage around the home turn and challenge widest, a tactic that often works well at that meeting, but didn't seem as effective this year. His main rival Minella Missile elected to take a much more ground-saving route and proved to be 1½ lengths too strong for Captain Teague on the day. Though, considering his 5lb penalty and the route he took, that appealed as being a good effort from Captain Teague.

His stamina for this trip is proven and he represents a very solid proposition.

Lookaway may be too good for rivals

An even more solid proposition is the Neil King-trained Lookaway. The six-year-old made the perfect start to his career in 2021/22, winning a point-to-point at Kildorrery prior to changing hands for £170,000 and joining King. A winning debut in a bumper at Newbury was followed by a successful step up in class to win a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree.

At that point, Lookaway looked a very exciting novice hurdle prospect for 2022/23, but it proved to be a disastrous campaign. His trainer had a below-par season in form terms and Lookaway disappointed in his first two starts over hurdles. Given a mid-season break, he shaped well in a Grade 2 novice hurdle prior to going to war after the new season had begun, winning two moderate hurdle races at Uttoxeter in May prior to going on a summer break.

With his trainer back in better form, Lookaway returned to action in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in October. Making all the running, he showed a slick jumping technique and was always in control to beat the subsequent Grade 2 novice hurdle winner Kamsinas by 2¾ lengths.

Raised 10lb to 132, he then contested the very competitive Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham's November meeting. Again setting out to make the running, he fought off all challengers until Iberico Lord struck late and got the better of him. The form of that race has been working out particularly well already, with the third, fourth and sixth all having won their next starts in valuable handicap hurdles.

Having been raised another 4lb to 136, Lookaway still isn't the highest-rated runner in this field, but his mark appeals to be the most robust rating on offer. While there is a chance that he could be taken on for the lead, he might just be too quick and sharp over this longer trip for any of his rivals to be able to hang with him without cutting their own throats.

Lookaway has already won over this trip, albeit in uncompetitive company, and this might well prove to be a distance that suits him well. In conclusion, Lookaway appeals as being the form pick in the race and looks overpriced at 13/27.50.

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