York Day Four Racing Tips: Alan Dudman has three fancies on Saturday including 11/1 selection

Saturday, York, 14:25, Sky Bet Melrose Handicap Tip: Back Mythical Bay EW five places @ 9/110.00

5 (3)

Mythical Bay (Ire)

• J: Oisin Murphy
• T: Andrew Balding
• F: 472-12311

• SBK 8/1
• EXC 11.5

The staying breed comes into its own for the Melrose, one of the top three-year-old staying handicaps on the calendar, and Mythical Bay's sire New Bay is the most represented here with four runners.

New Bay's record over 1m6f on turf is 17% win and 43% placed from 53 runners, but at York he must like the air in the north as from seven runners here over 1m6f he is 2-7, win rated 27% and placed 57%.

Mythical Bay is also trained by Andrew Balding, a Melrose man par excellence and the horse is progressing well over 1m4f and 1m6f and there is a lot more to come, and Balding this week at York is training like a man possessed.

A win at Newcastle earlier in the season sparked the interest for this race with a handsome victory in a canter against a bit of a motley bunch.

The form wasn't anything special but up in class and trip next time at Newmarket he took care of a 90 horse by a nose to win.

I thought he wasn't given a massively hard race and a further 5lbs puts him to 92 for Saturday, and is clearly a player with form on both good to soft and good to firm.

Expect him to be ridden handy from stall three on the inside, but he looks the type with a slightly weird head carriage at the end of a race that needs cover until the last couple of furlongs.

Saturday, 15:00, Bet City Of York Stakes Tip: Back Rogue Diplomat EW four places @ 11/112.00

7 (12)

Rogue Diplomat (Ire)

• J: Harry Davies
• T: James Owen
• F: 111-25712

• SBK 11/1
• EXC 16

Notable Speech is the class act here, but a class act usually on much quicker ground and with the four places on offer, Rogue Diplomat along with a few others to run a big race at a double-figure price is the way I am going.

James Owen's last three runners at the time of writing were at Stratford and Worcester, and trooping down those jumping meadows isn't quite as exciting as taking on one of the highest-rated Flat horses in Notable Speech (at 124).

He was a bit of a flying machine last term (Rogue Diplomate) progressing through the ranks with four handicap successes straight off the bat, but crucially with how the ground is at York, he has form in heavy and soft.

His final win of 2025 at Doncaster was in brutal autumn ground but showed guts and grim determination to scrape home, but it was evident how much of a big old loping stride he possesses.

This year has been an even better vintage in terms of quality; with a massive pot landed in the Hunt Cup at Ascot on good to firm albeit aided by the sweetest of draws over the far side, and some trainers and their sad hearts have never quite recovered from the stall set up that day.

He was a neck behind Lake Forest in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood on his most recent run but I don't think the track suited him particularly well that day.

Rogue Diplomat was also in a right old muck sweat but finished the best from his stone last position into the straight off a steady pace and he can gain revenge - as he ran 10.85 and 11.73, the two fastest sectionals at the end, which took some doing considering his poor position.

York, Saturday, 17:20, Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap Tip: Back Diego El Queso @ 9/25.50

4 (16)

Diego El Queso (Ire)

• J: G. F. Carroll
• T: G. M. Lyons, Ireland
• F: 1283-2126

• SBK 4/1
• EXC 5.9

I've gone with Love Me Tender for the Ebor both in my Antepost column and Big Race Verdict previews so there's no point adding a third instalment.

Two at the top of the market for the 17:20 are two I like, as Raammee netted us a 53/154.00 winning double at York in June for the Saturday multiple column, but also there is a lot of admiration for Diego El Queso, a class handicapper who acts with cut, and that has swayed me.

Sorry my old chum Raammee, you won't be forgotten.

Diego El Queso came from a long way back to get up late at Leopardstown right on the line under a sensational ride from Colin Keane as a few times in the past he hasn't quite gone through with his effort.

He was ahead of Britannia third Jamestown when he was runner-up in a Premier Handicap at Leopardstown again subsequently, so he's good in these big field races.

Goodwood last time was a disaster. As good as Keane was winning at Leopardstown, he was in a hopeless position and had no chance, but as Hemmingway once said: "A man can be destroyed but not defeated".

Keane has come back at York brilliantly this week.

Another chance for you too Diego.

Now read Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict on Saturday's Ebor Handicap here!