Ebor Big Race Verdict: Back Mullins and Buick for York triumph in Saturday's feature

Can Mullins pull off Ebor success again?

22 (15)

Love Me Tender (Ger)

• J: William Buick
• T: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
• F: 114-

• SBK 6/1
• EXC 7.6

Willie Mullins has scooped Europe's richest handicap - York's Ebor Handicap at 15:35 - twice in the last three years and three altogether with Sesenta's win in 2009 and the market likes him.

The Sportsbook, paying six places for each-way bets, has Love Me Tender included as one of the top trio in the market at 13/27.50. He's just snuck in as number 22 on the list, with a low weight and supremely attractive mark of 96.

Mullins also has Mr Hollywood, rated 105 and more towards the top of the weights, a six-year-old who holds an entry int he stayers' race on Champions Day and while not the most natural of jumpers, did win over the sticks at the Galway Festival recently and is priced at 11/112.00.

Out of the pair, Love Me Tender's three runs in France and Germany included an effort when fourth amongst horses that have all posted hefty three-figure ratings since as outlined in my latest antepost preview.

With the rain this week too - Mullins and the HOS Syndicate must be feeling a little more than confident, and goodness me this operation buy well.

Balding's red letter day on Thursday keeps him in touch for the title

6 (12)

Tarriance

• J: C. T. Keane
• T: Andrew Balding
• F: 2117-3854

• SBK 13/2
• EXC 11

Before Friday's action, Andrew Balding's week on the Knavesmire proved to be extremely lucrative.

Big prizes secured with Item and Kalapana, handicap successes were also forthcoming and the win money alone before Friday with five from 13 Knavesmire trotters sent out amassed £1.5million alone.

Balding's best chance according to the betting lies with the son of Frankel and Juddmonte four-year-old Tarriance.

He won the Melrose 12 months ago on quick ground and off a slightly steady pace, but a disastrous run in the St Leger has kept him on the backfoot since and hasn't quite looked the same horse this term.

Two runs in the spring at Group level failed to ignite him into action, and a try in a handicap last time out at Goodwood saw him get back on track with a good fourth. Small Fry was second in that and he bolted up in the stayers' race this week.

His mark to me looks tough from 105 and I suspect he wants quicker ground. But who can stop Balding out the moment?

Sportsbook market movers

10 (11)

Emit (Ire)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien, Ireland
• F: 122-43544

• SBK 11/2
• EXC 8.4

There will be plenty of turbulence in this market, with six places to boot, to come, but all I can do is merely delver the message like faithful Hermes.

Joseph O'Brien's Emit was cut on Friday from 8/19.00 into 11/26.50 and was the Sportsbook favourite prior to luncheon.

O'Brien's had a good week, Emit's season less so without a win but he was fourth in the Ebor qualifier at the Curragh and the rain this week will help his chances.

He was well beaten in fourth in the Duke Of Edinburgh last time at Royal Ascot and didn't look totally in love with the rapid surface. He stayed as he looked outpaced into the turn and reverting to a more suitable trip also looks in his favour.

Ryan Moore is on, a race that has eluded him so far.

Poetic Sound for Ger Lyons was weak out to 20/121.00 on Friday morning, and Opportunity for William Haggas also going the other way to 14/115.00.

Historical trends and draw

Delving into the data for the most favourable profile, between the ages of four and six have provided 11 of the last 12 winners, although with three-year-olds non-existent in the race, it's not the most informative.

Since 2000, when three-year-olds ran in it, five-year-olds have landed the Ebor on 11 occasions.

More telling is that 18 of the last 24 winners have carried 9-5 or less and 12 of the last 24 have carried 9-1 or less.

If you think a double figure is bad news in the race - you're wrong. Nineteen of the last 24 have been housed that way.

In fact those winning draws are: 2025 Ethical Diamond (21), 2024 Magical Zoe (1), 2023 Absurde (24), 2022 Trawlerman (20), 2021 Sonnyboyliston (14) and 2020 Fujaira Prince (12).

The best of the outsiders

While not exactly a wild price at 11/112.00, Square Necker is progressive and two from three this term. He scored at Ayr last time, on ground described as soft. Prior to that he overcame a steady pace to win at Hamilton and the third that day was Mountain Road (who placed second at York on Wednesday).

He'll not mind the going at all and is drawn in 23. He is a strong traveller too and I can see him running a big race as a four-year-old from 97.

I've always had a soft spot for Circus Of Rome but it's been a puzzling season. Well beaten in the Northumberland Plate when tenth last time when six lengths down, his previous two runs were over 1m and 1m2f.

He is still unexposed at this sort of trip and looked a horse with staying potential winning in 2025 at Newbury, and Newcastle in the much-missed Racing League - both over 1m4f.

At 33/134.00 he could outrun those odds and Jamie Spencer, the old master, is a two-time Ebor winner.

Alan Dudman's Ebor Verdict

Love Me Tender has so much going for him and this could be the plan of all masterplans to pull this off on seasonal debut.

His last outing was in October 2025, a Listed race in France when trained by the legendary Peter Schiergen. Since then, moving to another legend, connections must have felt that handicap mark for a race of this nature needs protecting, and from 96 and 8-12, the owners have got their wish to sneak in.

What bravery.

Square Necker's profile excites me too, and he won so easily at Ayr last time, he potentially could be a 100+ handicapper.

Another from a low weight and a mark of 97, he travelled so well in softer conditions at Ayr, and conditions could be perfect for him, ergo, left-handed with a bit of cut on a nice flat track.

While the pace was steady at Ayr, his ability to quicken up sharply at 11f and 12f in that race will stand him in good stead here, as it was steady too winning at Hamilton on good ground.

The stats with the draw do not rule him out either.

Now read more tips and previews here!