Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Pretty Crystal screams out to be backed at 20/1

• 20/121.00 tip is too big to ignore

• Little reason to oppose Royal Rhyme

• TC to be bolder with bets for rest of Flat season

I dealt with the Ayr Gold Cup in yesterday's column and the Betfair Sportsbook have priced up seven of the other eight races due to be screened on ITV on Saturday (the obvious exception being the Silver Cup, which you cannot).

On the subject of bookmakers pricing up weekend ante-post markets, it is becoming increasingly clear that some have little interest in doing so. One or two don't look to even have bothered outside of the meeting's flagship 6f handicap on Saturday.

Rain forecast before and during Ayr Festival

I may as well stay with Ayr to begin with, where I am very surprised that the ground is only good, good to soft in places, after they got another 12mm overnight into Tuesday to add to the 15mm that hit them on Sunday.

One to keep an eye on there though, as another 38mm is currently scheduled to drop, up to and including into Saturday.

And around 20mm of that is set to arrive before the three-day meeting starts on Thursday.

Ayr - Saturday 13:15: No bet

The 1m handicap on Saturday at 13:15 has attracted 25 entries, for a maximum field of 14, and it has been priced up very defensively, with the Sportsbook having five horses ranged between 5/16.00 and 7/18.00, although they are playing very fair by offering four places (the standard each-way terms on the day will be just three).

We have the last two winners of the race in here, in Gweedore and Revich, but it is no surprise to see Kathab head the betting at 5/16.00 given his progressive profile, though the fact he has never raced on anything worse than good ground has to be a red flag to ante-post punters should all that rain land.

Ayr - Saturday 13:50: No bet

Next up is the Listed 1m2f Doonside Cup at 13:50, a race that has attracted 18 entries for another maximum field of 14 on the day.

I know Royal Champion and My Prospero, priced at 2/13.00 and 3/14.00 respectively, are the form horses - along with 16/117.00 chance Sir Busker, who handles soft perfectly well but is probably much better on quicker ground - but I wouldn't be in a mad rush to oppose Royal Rhyme here.

He has a fair bit ratings-wise to find for a 7/24.50 chance but the manner in which he took apart that Goodwood handicap off 95 was something else, and I suspect he is at least Group 2 material when he encounters soft ground (on which he is three from three).

Ayr - Saturday 15:00: Back Pretty Crystal

I certainly wasn't expecting to see Raqiya anywhere near as short as 8/131.61 when looking at the 6f fillies' 2yo Group 3 Firth Of Clyde, for all she was very impressive under a penalty at Haydock recently.

Timeform called the ground good to firm that day, so how she handles soft ground (at a minimum, I am anticipating} is anyone's guess and it is not as if she has a dominating chance on form or on the clock anyway.

Far from it.

I wouldn't back her at 13/82.63 let alone 8/131.61.

The one that screams out at me at the Betfair Sportsbook prices is Pretty Crystal at 20/121.00, with the only doubt in my mind that Richard Fahey also has fellow 20/121.00 poke Tropical Island, also in the same ownership, in the race, too.

However, Tropical Island is also in the nursery on Friday, for which she is 3lb well-in under a 6lb penalty for her recent York win, whereas Pretty Crystal has no other options this week.

For all the owner may decide to let just Tropical Island take her chance in this Listed race - and they may run both given the black-type opportunities - I just don't see how Pretty Crystal has been put in at 20/121.00 here. She has excellent claims at it stands, and she is an each-way bet at that price.

Fahey has won two of the last three runnings of this race, and Pretty Crystal shaped very well in both the Group 3 Albany and Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot (particularly on the latter occasion when not ideally positioned on the track and meeting a little trouble, too).

She looked for all the world like a step back to this trip would suit when fourth to subsequent May Hill winner Darnation over 7f on soft ground (it was heavy) at Goodwood last time.

She travelled powerfully in the ground for 5f of that contest , hitting evens in running, before tiring to finish a respectable fourth and 6f in testing conditions could be her ideal bag.

Her dam handled quick ground very well (as did Pretty Crystal in those two Ascot runs) but she also won a Group 3 on soft.

Now, I appreciate the 20/121.00 is likely to go very quickly, and each-way is arguably not the way to go given the trainer and owner have two in the race, as I have explained, but it just looks far, far too big to ignore, so I am taking the chance with the Fahey filly who looks a perfect fit for the race.

In fact, the owner has three in here, as Karl Burke's Beautiful Diamond is also Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum's, though she also has an entry at Ayr on Friday over a possibly more suitable 5f.

Other double-entries in the race include Bellarchi, Dorothy Lawrence, Queen's Guard and Serene Seraph.

I still wouldn't go any lower than 12/113.00 about Pretty Crystal though - that'd be a very strict guideline - as we may not even get a run for our money, and you have to be aware of the no-show possibility.

But, having looked at my poor run of results in the last couple of months, I have come to the conclusion that I have been too defensive in my betting and tipping, missing out on some good-priced winners, so I am going to trust in my judgement and instinct that have served me well enough in this column for the past 10 years.

So, while I am hardly going to suddenly go gung-ho and will always be highly selective (a visible profit and loss put on every column - and I am very conscious I went into negative territory for the Flat season after Saturday's racing - keeps you honest, which is why I'll never over-celebrate winners, while ignoring all the losers) - I am going to be a bit bolder, for rest of the Flat at least, then I'll regroup in early November for the jumps season.

If I am betting three horses in a big-field handicap myself, then I am going to be tipping three, and making no apologies for it.

Take it easy and keep Newbury powder dry

Newbury is currently good to soft after getting 17mm combined on Sunday and Monday, and the main site I use has possibly another 11mm coming before Saturday, so the forecast has actually improved a bit in the last 24 hours.

However, having looked at the four ITV races there, I am happy to come at those afresh on Saturday when I have a better handle on the ground and, when I obviously have the final fields. I just hope the fields hold up there as they look a bit precarious at the five-day stage.

After looking after the 2yo grandson for five hours on Tuesday morning, I was intending to go for a lie down after writing this.

Maximum respect for stay-at-home parents who have young 'uns 24 hours a day. I know I am an old man at 54, but I am genuinely shattered.

Instead of a grandad afternoon nap, a sit down and a bottle of white (could be a buyer at one), and an Endeavour re-run at 3.55pm on ITV3 is my final decision, and probably bed by 8pm. The local Chinese takeaway opens at 4:30pm, so that isn't a big price, either.

Life in the fast lane. Go well.

Watch Tony on this week's Weighed-In