Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Catch Camacho's Pendleton at 33/1 for Ayr Gold Cup

• Wet forecast could mean heavy ground at Ayr

• Keep an eye on plans for Juan Les Pins

• Camacho horses appeal but only one gets TC's money

Ayr's three-day Gold Cup meeting starts on Thursday and it is likely to do so on soft ground if the forecast is correct. And on maybe even borderline heavy going for the Gold Cup itself at 15:35 on Saturday, as rain is due every day this week.

It is good job that the ground is currently good (after 15mm on Sunday) as the forecast really is poor, as it looks to be for most of the country this week.

The main site I use (which tends to be more pessimistic than most, admittedly - which is why I probably use it, I hear you jest) currently has 22m alone falling on Tuesday, and another 28mm on the other days leading into the weekend.

The other ITV track on Saturday is Newbury and it is currently good to soft there for their two-day fixture starting on Friday after they got 15mm in Sunday night's thunderstorms. They could get another 30mm from Wednesday into Friday night.

There were only two long range ante-post markets up for Saturday, the Goffs Million at the Curragh (four-day decs for that are out on Tuesday) and the aforementioned Ayr Gold Cup. The Mill Reef was an early-closer at Newbury but no-one priced that up, understandably.

Juan Les Pins is one to watch

Prior to Monday's five-day decs, there was the small matter of 186 entries for Ayr's 6f handicap. Six horses were still priced up at 10/111.00 or less though, with Orazio and Dark Trooper the 8/19.00 joint favourites, with winning Saturday gamble Annaf a 9/110.00 poke.

Two of those have already gone by the wayside, as I will explain shortly, along with another prominent horse in the betting. Such are the risks with ante-post punting.

Of course, the layers had to bet defensively as there is a maximum field of 25 on Saturday, and there will be a lot of money due back on horses balloted out on Thursday morning, and relegated to the Bronze and Silver Cups. We are now down to a mere 146 entries.

There is one horse officially well-in for Saturday's race.

The handicapper would have liked to give Wokingham third Juan Les Pins 8lb more after his excellent recent placings in Listed company at Newbury and York on his last two starts (Shouldhavebeenaring would have been 5lb well-in after his excellent second in the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup but he hasn't been confirmed).

Surprisingly perhaps, Juan Les Pins was as big as 16/117.00 if you shopped around first thing on Monday morning.

Though perhaps not surprisingly, as his best efforts have come on a decent surface, which they look unlikely to get unless the forecasts are spectacularly wrong (which they pretty much were at Donny last week, to be fair).

But maybe his stablemate Annaf can teach us a lesson not to be too quick to rush to judgment.

Annaf landed a fair old punt when just edging home in the Portland on Saturday and it initially seemed that he and the short-head runner-up, Significantly, could turn out again quickly here.

That Doncaster win maybe was proof that we shouldn't be so quick to pigeon-hole horses as regards the ground, as that was the first time Annaf had run on officially soft ground and he obviously handled it fine. It could well be deeper still at Ayr though, and he has not been confirmed for the race on Monday.

Likewise, Dark Trooper. The wildly progressive (83 to 101 in winning his last four starts, on fast as well as on heavy) would have actually been 1lb badly-in under his 5lb penalty, but even so his absence is something of a surprise.

Juan Les Pins is owned by master racing punter Matthew Taylor and he will obviously be aware that all of his horse's best efforts have come on the all-weather, or good or quicker on turf. He also finished third in this race on good ground last year.

Two forays on official soft and heavy weren't disastrous but they were not too clever, most recently his 10th in the Stewards' Cup on heavy, though he did stick on well enough there to be fair to the horse and four of his siblings handled soft and heavy very well.

However, the ex-Timeform man will be aware that organisation actually have his horse as having raced on soft or heavy four times, and he has not done well on every occasion.

He is so well-in he may even get away with soft ground on the day, but it seems sensible to wait instead of backing him now at 14/115.00.

Obviously, that price will have shortened if he is confirmed on Thursday - and even more so if the rain hasn't arrived in the expected quantities at the time of writing - but at least it will be money back if a non-runner from thereon in.

He'll be a single-digit favourite on the day if it is good to soft or better.

Significantly is better bet than Orazio

Significantly has been given the green light (at this stage anyway), and he will be also well-in when re-assessed for the Doncaster second.

He won the Palace Of Holyroodhouse handicap on heavy at Royal Ascot in 2021 and he ran well here earlier in the season, his only start at the track. He is 10/111.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook, who are paying five places.

That Doncaster run was particularly meritorious as the Julie Camacho stable has been under a cloud in the last month or so. They are still winless for a while but, as well as Significantly, Raatea and Titian also ran well for them at Donny and they also had a second at Chester.

Significantly was just denied off a mark of 94 on Saturday (which he can race off here) and he has been as high as 105 in the past. I imagine he will be 2lb or so well-in here, so connections would have been hoping and praying he gets in, especially as he has backed up similarly quickly in the past.

He duly has after Monday's withdrawals and he is now guaranteed a run as he is 25th in the list, up from 42nd on Sunday.

Indeed, as regards the quick back-up after Doncaster, one can argue his career-best was a fourth in a Group 3 at Newbury in September 2021, and that came just six days after he ran above himself in the Group 1 Flying Five at the Curragh.

The one slight doubt I have about him is whether 6f in very deep ground are his optimum conditions, but he ran well enough when sixth on heavy in the Stewards' Cup in August and I'd have him as my favourite at this stage, in front of 8/19.00 Orazio.

Orazio needs to go out and do it now after failing when favourite for the Wokingham and Stewards' Cup.

The Wokingham sixth was fine but the Goodwood run on heavy was very disappointing. All the talk before Goodwood was that he couldn't have it too deep and he was a Group-race sprinter running off 102, but connections apparently thought it was too testing for him there.

If that is accurate, then they would seem likely to be encountering similar conditions on Saturday.

Fresh, whose last traded priced on the Betfair Exchange's ante-post market was 11.010/1 before it was suspended early on Monday morning, was another surprise withdrawal at midday.

Last year's winner Summerghand, 10/111.00 with the Sportsbook, is 3lb wrong under his 5lb penalty for his dead-heat at York with Albasheer. He subsequently ran well when fourth at the Curragh, in which Albasheer shaped considerably better than his eighth suggests in the same race.

Like his fellow York dead-heater, 14/115.00 chance Albasheer, is also 3lb badly-in off a mark of 100 under his 5lb penalty, but he was rated 112 as a juvenile and it is fair to say his Curragh effort has to be be marked up considerably given the run/ride he encountered there.

Does he want it as soft as it could be at Ayr? That would be my main question about him, for all he has form on the surface.

The complexion of the race changed a fair amount at midday on Monday, with the top four in the weights.

I don't propose to go through every likely runner in this piece (though the above may suggest that) so it is time to cut straight to the chase.

Am I having a bet?

The answer is yes, and it is a Camacho horse. But not Significantly.

Ayr - Saturday 15:35: Back Pendleton

It is actually their most recent winner, and it is Pendleton. Back him at 33/134.00 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook. He is 25/126.00 across the board, and I wouldn;t lay him at 16/117.00 myself.

The 33/134.00 and 25/126.00 simply seems far too generous.

The horse was set to be retired last season after finishing last in this very race, but he has been nursed back to good health and form by new connections (and Sophie Armstrong). He landed a 16/117.00 to 11/112.00 punt after a near year lay-off at Thirsk at the start of the month.

He won very well there too, travelling supremely well in behind throughout, and winning convincingly after getting a run on the rail. After the race, Julie Camacho said this race was the plan, and here we are. He now looks to set to get a run, being 27th in the list.

He is handicap neutral, having gone up 5lb for Thirsk and running under a 5lb penalty here, but he was rated 8lb higher at his peak when Michael Dods had him and arguably his best run came when winning on soft at York in 2021.

He has loads of big handicap form and, while he has been found wanting in this race in the last two years, he has a fifth in a Bronze Cup to his name and that doesn't overly concern me.

And that Thirsk form looks strong. The second won next time, as did the fifth (that was Gulliver, who absolutely bolted up at Southwell - he would be very dangerous here if getting in but he is currently 43^rd on the list), and none of the others in that 12-runner handicap have raced since.

I just hope we get a run for our money, and we aren't talking about the dreaded bounce factor, real or imagined.

Good luck. I'll be back tomorrow with a look at the other weekend races once they have been priced up.

Watch Tony on this week's Weighed-In