Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Honeyball's 16/1 shot could put backers in the money

• TC starts 2024 antepost focus at Sandown

• 16/117.00 Sam Brown runs off attractive mark

• Veterans' Handicap is opportunity for Honeyball horse

No Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle this season, but Sandown headlined the Veterans' Chase last year in their marketing and literature for this meeting and there are a healthy 18 entries for Saturday's big race.

All 18 can be accommodated on the day should they so wish.

The going on the chase course at Sandown is currently soft, good to soft in places, and the hurdles circuit is heavy, soft in places, after 12.4mm overnight up to 10am on Tuesday.

It is due to rain throughout Tuesday (not much, but spits and spots), and we are also forecast 12mm on Thursday, so it'll probably be heavy over hurdles and soft over fences if that lands.

We are also due to have three races from Wincanton on ITV on Saturday. However, it is currently heavy, waterlogged in places, and there is rain due throughout Tuesday (a yellow rain warning of 14mm due to the BHA site) and more until Thursday.

Presumably, they'll need a bit of luck for that meeting to survive, though the end-of-week forecast looks okay.

Betting on very deep ground has its challenges and, to be honest, I am increasingly wary of it, especially from an ante-post perspective when connections may decide to wait and look for a better surface for their horses down the line.

Everyone knows how attritional that Sandown hurdles track gets, and the races over the smaller obstacles have attracted very few entries on Saturday. There are just eight and nine in the two ITV hurdle races, in fact.

All seven ITV races on Saturday have been priced up by the Sportsbook.

Sandown Saturday 15:00 - Back Sam Brown

I am going to concentrate on just the 100k 3m veterans' handicap chase at 15:00 in this piece though, and it wouldn't be a massive surprise if all 18 stood their ground. None of those hold an alternative engagement this week.

After all, it's a big pot for the oldies, and the trainers will have entered them all on Monday, knowing full well it was probably going to be soft on the chase track.

My thought when looking at this race was: "How have they got Cap Du Nord to a mark of 121 so quickly?" Especially as he shaped very well under a quiet one at Newbury last time.

However, connections may have been too cute and the handicapper may have been too lenient as he is currently 6lb out of the handicap here, and the top weight Two For Gold on 12 stone is already jocked up.

Off his correct mark, Cap Du Nord would have been something to go at here - he is a course winner and two of his best efforts have come on soft ground (in my mind I always viewed him as wanting a decent surface) - but that looks about as likely as my growing an Afro.

They may run him anyway, as we know he can win off an effective mark of 127 if primed (you know exactly what I mean), but Sportsbook are 12/113.00 and that is fully factoring in the "this could be his day scenario" in such a competitive handicap.

The Sportsbook are offering three places at the moment, so I would strongly urge people to bet win-only at this stage (I imagine you will get four or five places on the day), so I went hunting for a punt on the nose.

And, while I would only suggest a small bet, I do think there is juice in Sam Brown's Sportsbook price of 16/117.00.

Now, clearly this three-time heavy ground winner wouldn't mind if it rained all week. But, by the same token, he wouldn't be bothered too much if it dried out to good to soft.

After all, it was good to soft when he was third in the 2022 Charlie Hall and when he won at Aintree by 15 lengths off a mark of 147 that year.

And he runs off that very mark here.

I am not totally sold on whether this Sandown track will be his optimum bag but his attractive mark is there for all to see and he shaped well enough over an inadequate 2m4f+ at Cheltenham last time, for which he was dropped 3lb.

I appreciate that 2022 form is a distant memory but he was going great guns, in the lead at Punchestown three starts ago in April 2023 - he was in front and trading at 1.564/7 when coming down 2 out - and this surely represents an excellent opportunity for him.

Trainer Anthony Honeyball won this race with Jepeck in 2020 and he is having an excellent season (28 winners at a 21 per cent strike rate) and I wouldn't have his horse at any bigger than 12s here.

Good luck.

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