Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says Ardera Cross's price is too big to ignore

The expected rain on some forecasts earlier in the week has so far failed to materialise, so much so that Ayr were actually watering to maintain good to soft (good in places) going into their Friday fixture.

Good to soft it is then - hopefully the spits and spots that are due do not get any heavier than that - and I am happy to stick up a horse who is racing from 19lb out of the handicap in the opener at 13:15.

And that is for the simple reason that he is overpriced in a race which I don't think is particularly strong, especially if Dubai Days and Coach Carter take up their intended engagements on Friday afternoon and don't rock up again (expect a Rule 4 obviously, if so).

Of course, they could do - Theinval regularly backed up at this meeting - but we are guessing at the moment.

So back Ardera Cross, who is generally 66s across the board, at 65.064/1 or bigger on the Exchange. Any 50/1 and bigger there, or on the fixed-odds front, would be fine with me. That's the base price.

Of course, it's a wild old swing, and he could easily be tailed off, but it is not as stupid a play as it seems.

Price is too big to ignore

The course stalwart comes here in good form for starters, having won comfortably on his penultimate start, and he again ran very well when third here last time considering the extended 2m4f in soft ground would not be his optimum.

I like the angle of him stepping down in trip on better ground (a lot of his best form has come on soft/heavy, but he has fair runs on good and good to soft) but let's get back to the fact he effectively races off 119 here, instead of his current mark of 100.

Clearly, that is a major ballache for his winning chances, but this is a horse who has been rated 130 at his peak and who recorded a success off 125 in February 2020, so we are not needing a Barney Curley time-machine here. Indeed, he won off 114 over course and distance here last March.

I am all about the long-term when it comes to betting and his price is simply too big to ignore. You could back him each-way, but I will play win-only. There is even a possibility he could get on the front end on his lonesome too, though Gold Des Bois may have something to say about that.

Henderson's Dusart is tempting

I thought Dusart ran really well in ground much softer than he liked at Cheltenham - the 3m novice was run on Wet Wednesday - and he seems to be growing up now. He has always been regarded as potentially top-notch in his yard, and off 147 on the expected better ground, I would be hopeful he can outclass these.

I couldn't put you off if you can get around 3s on the Exchange in the 13:50, but on the downside he must have had a hard race at the Festival and this is clearly no gimme. I can just about sit him out, with his current odds around 11/4 on the Exchange and 5/2 on the Sportsbook.

Voix De Reve cannot go unbacked

Dusart's trainer Nicky Henderson has declined to load up his County Hurdle runner-up First Street in the same box for the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 14:25 but it is still a very warm handicap.

West Cork and Onemorefortheroad are obvious players here, as are last year's 1-2 of Milkwood and Anna Bunina.

The latter tempted me yet again now she has dropped to a mark on 130 - that is 5lb lower than last year and she has a 13lb pulled with Milkwood for the 3 ¾ lengths she was beaten there - but I wanted to see a touch more from her this season. I may chuck a score at her just in case, admittedly.

I regularly fall for an oldie (see Ardera Cross) though, and I cannot let the 10yo Voix De Reve go unbacked at 26.025/1 or better on the Exchange. He is also 25/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook, so take your choice, but the latter may be the swifter option for most.

I just don't get the price. At the start of the season he was rated 149, but he can race here off 135, despite an easy win last time.

I appreciate this is a whole different ball game in terms of competition but he is in-form, he will love the decent ground, and he clearly remains well-treated. He has also form on good ground over fences at this meeting last season, and 5lb claimer Tom Midgley obviously gets on well enough with him and retains the ride.

At 16/1 or bigger, I would make him a bet.

Kiltealy Briggs would be my one against the field, if forced, at 6/1+ in the 15:00, as he pretty much ran as I expected in the Ultima last time, going well for a long way before his stamina ran out over 3m1f. He just doesn't stay beyond 3m.

Back to 2m4f is an obvious plus but, like Dusart, we don't know how much that race took out of him at Cheltenham and he does have a 3lb penalty, which makes him fourth-in of five on official figures here. I will pass.

I was torn more ways than Mel Gibson was in that final "Freedom" scene in Braveheart when looking at the Scottish National at 15:35.

Christian Williams could well have his ample barnet already draped over the winning trophy as Kitty's Light is very well handicapped after a back-to-form run last time and the unexposed mare Win My Wings hugely impressed me at Newcastle when winning the Eider and connections have booked 7lb Irish claimer Rob James.

But then Stormy Judge is a massive player here on his Navan win last year (which has worked out very well) and he is a half-brother to the stable's 3m7f winner Mister Fogpatches. However, I just can't get my head around how he found nothing after trading at evens, and seemingly hacking up coming into the straight, in the Leinster National last time.

That would have to concern you, even if the better ground here may suit.

I can fully see the arguments for Ashtown Lad and Major Dundee, and if you asked me a horse very likely to finish in the first five I would probably say Cool Mix, last year's fifth off a 6lb higher mark, with a claimer taking off another 7lb.

But I am not sure whether I see him wearing a first-time tongue-tie, at the age of 10, is a positive or a negative, and the 16s became 12s on Thursday afternoon, anyway. Mr Price Sensitive ruled him out there and then.

I guess what I am trying to say is that I found this race impossible.

And if you can make a cogent case for 10 or more horses at their prices - and I easily could - you really should be sitting the race out, even it is the biggest punting contest of the day. So I am.

Case for Holly Hartingo stands

The first ITV race over at Newbury is the 2m3f handicap hurdle at 13:35 and the first thing that struck me here was Punctuation lining up, having been pulled out of Warwick on Thursday due to the good ground.

He has gone up 8lb for his narrow win over 2m here last time but, as a once 89-rated stayer on the Flat, you'd have to think the extra 3f is going to suit. The Betfair Sportsbook were clear top about him on Thursday afternoon, but the 6s became 5s at 13:45.

And, as with the Scottish National, there are a fair few dangers in here.

Mot A Mot is handicapped to go very close on his Worcester defeat of Anyharminasking if the recent wind op and first-time tongue has done the business after two modest displays since (he was cut from 14s to 10s on Thursday afternoon), and Frere D'Armes has been very kindly treated by the handicapper in being dropped 4lb for his run in Grade 2 company at Kempton last time.

Perhaps most solid of all is Royaume Uni, who danced in over this trip at Fontwell last time and is just 6lb higher here.

At the current prices, I couldn't see much of an angle, and that was also true of the 2m7f86yd veterans' chase at 14:10.

Glen Forsa capitulated very tamely when I stuck him up here last time but maybe he just wants the better ground he is likely to experience here these days - it is currently good to soft - and there is no disputing he was very good when beating that punted Scottish National runner Cool Mix on good ground at Musselburgh previously.

At around 8s, I was tempted but I do think he is better over shorter than this trip.

On Tuesday, I put up Holly Hartingo at 12/1 win-only for the 14:45 at Newbury and nothing has changed since then.

In fact, she remains backable at basically the same price on the Exchange for those new to the party, so she clearly remains my idea of the best bet in the race.

Maybe there are two negatives if you are nit-picking. Possibly softer ground and more guaranteed pace would have been better for this hold-up performer, but the case that I made for her earlier in the week stands.

Everything about this ex-pointer's run-style and pedigree suggests that 2m was going to be a wholly insufficient test of stamina for her in a four-runner race at Hereford last time, and so it proved. She dropped back to last when the pace quickened 3 out (she also put in a slow jump there) , before staying on again after the last.

The handicapper left her mark untouched despite being beaten 8 ½ lengths there, and I can fully see why. It just looked a perfect, and obvious, tee-up for this race.

She had earlier showed plenty of stamina to give Hillfinch 6lb and a 5 ½ length beating over an extended 2m4f in the soft at Huntingdon, and that came in a very good time in relation to this race, and after that she was a fair old punt for a 3m Listed race at Doncaster at the start of the month, only to be pulled out in the morning after halving in price.

Perhaps that may not have been a kosher gamble given she was a no-show but it could also mean someone thinks she could be better than her mark of 120. I do, too.

Like I said, if you are not already on, then 10/1+ is fine for her, albeit in a race teeming with dangerous opposition, and the fact Jonathan Burke replaces the 3lb claimer who rode her last time is probably no bad thing.

Good luck all.

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Pace Maps for Saturday's ITV Races

Ayr 13:15 - Lead/Prominent: Gold Des Bois, Ardera Cross; Midfield: Malystic, Return Ticket, Coach Carter (also entered Friday); Held Up: Sebastopol, Dubai Days (also entered Friday), Some Reign, Sao, Hatcher

Ayr 13:50 - Lead/Prominent: Dusart, The Golden Rebel, Lord Accord; Midfield: Sail Away, Sounds Russian, Striking A Pose, Now Where Or When; Held Up: Doyen Breed, IK Brunel

Ayr 14:25 - Lead/Prominent: Onemorefortheroad ???, Barrichello, Socialist Agenda; Midfield: Alqamar, Voix De Reve; Held Up: West Cork, Milkwood, Anna Bunina, Kihavah

Ayr 15:00 - Lead/Prominent: Minella Drama, Kiltealy Briggs; Midfield: Il Ridoto; Held Up: Do Your Job, Jacamar

Ayr 15:35 - Lead/Prominent: Ashtown Lad, Fantastikas, Cool Mix, Court Master, One More Fleurie, Innisfree Lad, Chirico Vallis, Via Dolorosa, Vintage Clouds, Strong Economy; Midfield: Win My Wings, Stormy Judge. History Of Fashion, Major Dundee, Ask a Honey Bee, Hill Sixteen, Jersey Bean; Held Up: Kitty's Light, The Ferry Master, The Wolf, Prime Venture, Streets Of Doyen, Fidux, El Paso Wood,

Newbury 13:35 - Lead/Prominent: Rainyday Woman, Mister Marbles, Mot A Mot, Pearly Island, Icone D'Aubrelle; Midfield: Surrey Quest, Royaume Uni, Frere D'Armes, Martin Spirit; Held Up: Punctuation

Newbury 14:10 - Lead/Prominent: La Cavsa Nostra, Indy Five, Pyschedelic Rock, Valadom; Midfield: First Figaro, Glen Forsa, Bermeo; Held Up: No Comment, Vivas, Another Emotion,

Newbury 14:45 - Lead/Prominent: Good Luck Charm, Nextdoortoalice; Midfield: Speech Bubble, Corey's Courage, Sabrina, Walk In Clover, Moonamacaroona, Runwiththetide, Lady Tremaine, Tweed Skirt, Largy G; Held Up: Holly Hartingo, Nina The Terrier, Gentle Connections, Marsh Wren, The Player