Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Holly to go well at Newbury on Saturday

Tony Calvin
29 March 2022
4:00 min read

Tony has an antepost bet for Saturday at Newbury

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Tony Calvin says hold your horses on a hot handicap at Ayr but recommends an antepost bet for Saturday's card at Newbury...

"I would suggest you back Holly Hartingo at 12/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook in the 14:45. Any 10s would be acceptable, too."
Back Holly Hartingo win-only Betfair Sportsbook Newbury 14:45 Saturday @ 13.012/1

Even though there are some angles to be gleaned from double-entered horses in the weekend ITV races (see below), I could not see too many betting avenues myself at this stage.

I do have a bet at Newbury, so stay tuned, but we will kick off with the Scottish Grand National card at Ayr on Saturday.

One hot handicap at Ayr

First things first, the ground. It is currently good to soft and the forecast in Scotland is for a wet week, but not a soaked one. Let's go with probable soft going then, especially as temperatures look rather chilly and not drying.

The Scottish Champion Hurdle at 14:25 is one of the big two betting races on the card, and it could be an incredibly hot renewal if the big guns stand their ground. There is an exchange market, as well as a fixed-odds line on the Sportsbook.

The starting point is Onemorefortheroad, who was the ante-post favourite for the race but who has drifted a touch after also being entered at Newbury on Friday.

I have a strict rule (well a pretty strict one, anyway) never to tip up double-entered horses, so if you fancy him I'd personally wait until Wednesday morning when you know if connections have confirmed for Newbury.

Even if Onemorefortheroad goes elsewhere, this is one hot handicap.

We could have last year's 1-2 in the race, Milkwood and my old mate Anna Bunina (though she pushed her luck at Doncaster two starts ago, albeit on suitable ground), and the County Hurdle 2-4 First Street and West Cork, as well as any number of very plausible, progressive last-time-out winners.

The fact that Voix De Reve is currently available at 40.039/1 on the Exchange after winning last time and remaining on a very workable mark tells you everything you need to know about the depth of the race.

I look forward to revisiting once we know the final runners, ground and pace-set up on Thursday, and maybe an extra place for each-way punters, too. It promises to be a cracker.

Win My Wings is the one to beat

Four horses are entered in both the Scottish and Aintree Nationals (see below, again), and a few others are also in the Topham, so it remains be seen if the likes of Fortescue (48th in the list for Aintree) wait and take their chance of getting into the main race or run here.

The weights rose significantly on Monday, so all the lightweights have been brought right into the winning equation.

Cool Mix, in-form and 6lb lower than when fifth in this race last season, is undoubtedly interesting but he has an entry here in on Friday (albeit that is only over 2m4f), so I would have to wait if I was considering backing him. Similar comments apply to Go Another One, in at Wexford on Friday as well as Aintree.

Christian Williams has the first two in the betting in Kitty's Light and Win My Wings, and I must admit I am very surprised the latter isn't favourite. In fact, I was amazed (well mildly, so) to see her trading at 11.010/1 on the Exchange. Not in a million years would I be laying her at 8s, let alone 10-1.

I know she went up 8lb for a 1 ¾ length win in the Eider last time - she landed a fair old punt there as well - but I have rarely seen a horse win a staying race with so much authority, in relation to the winning distance, and she is undoubtedly the one to beat in my book. Stablemate and 6/1 Exchange favourite Kitty's Light isn't too far off, though.

With those National and Topham entries, and others with other possibilities this week, this race may cut up a fair bit from the 31 in the race as of now, but I am going to hang fire for now.

Very decent bet at Newbury

I am going to have a bet at Newbury though. Again, housekeeping with the ground there shows it is currently good to soft (good in places) but set to get soft if the main forecast I use is correct (10mm alone due on Wednesday).

Mind you, I should say some weather websites have very little rain for both Ayr and Newbury, so who knows what to expect?

I wouldn't back 7/1 chance Punctuation in the 13:35 if I were you as he is declared at Warwick on Thursday, and I will leave the 14:10 alone.

But I would suggest you back Holly Hartingo at 12/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook in the 14:45. Any 10s would be acceptable, too.

Of course, a lot of these would have been laid out for this race but connections surely had eyes on this prize when running this mare over 2m at Hereford last time, for all she went off 7/4 favourite in a four-runner race that day.

Everything about this ex-pointer's run-style and pedigree suggests that 2m was going to be an wholly insufficient test of stamina, and so it proved. She may have been a bit too fresh early doors and she dropped back to last when the pace quickened 3 out (she put in a slow jump there) , before coming back a bit on the run-in.

It looks as though the handicapper saw what I did too, as he left her mark untouched despite being beaten 8 ½ lengths there.

She had earlier showed plenty of stamina to give Hillfinch 6lb and a 5 ½ length beating over an extended 2m4f in the soft at Huntingdon in a fair time (the runner-up won a poor race next time) and after that she was a fair old punt for a 3m Listed race at Doncaster at the start of the month, only to be pulled out in the morning after over halving in price.

Now, you never know if there is a Rule 4 element to these no-show gambles, but I think it is noteworthy and that a mark of 120 underplays her potential. The step back up in trip here in a bigger field on soft ground will certainly play to her strengths.

She is a very decent win bet at 12/1.

Double-entered horses for Saturday's ITV races

Ayr 13:15 - Antunes, Coach Carter, Dubai Days, Gold Des Bois, Return Ticket

Ayr 13:50 - Fantastikas, Jacamar, Major Dundee, Minella Escape, Nestor Park, Now Where Or When, Railway Hurricane, Streets Of Doyen, Striking A Pose

Ayr 14:25 - Onemorefortheroad, Hacker Des Places, Soft Risk, Socialist Agenda, Kihavah

Ayr 15:00 - Do Your Job, Jacamar, Kiltealy Briggs, Now Where Or When, Presentandcounting

Ayr 15:35 - Go Another One, Fantastikas, Streets Of Doyen, Nestor Park, Major Dundee, Cool Mix, Supreme Escape

Also in Grand National - Go Another One, Fortescue, Hill Sixteen, Via Dolorosa

Newbury 13:35 - Black Poppy, Global Agreement, Kamaxos, Kincardine, Nina The Terrier, Pull Again Green, Punctuation (due to run on Thursday), Rainyday Woman, The Plimsoll Line

Newbury 14:10 -Breizh Alco, Joueur Breselien

Newbury 14:45 - Good Luck Charm, Nina The Terrier