Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Ailie Rose at 25/1 on Betfair Chase day

• TC's best bets and insight for Betfair Chase Day

• Heavy at Haydock may hamper A Plus Tard

• Bromley and Rose could be winning combo

• Nick Kent runner has stamina to succeed

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With so much rain still forecast for the rest of Thursday and the start of Friday, I think it is fair to say a few trainers will be walking the course at Haydock on Saturday morning - that intro had Craig David vibes about it - and that includes Henry De Bromhead, I imagine.

It sounds like he is running his Gold Cup winner come what may though, so fair play to him.

His A Plus Tard can officially run 15lb below form and win the Betfair Chase at 15:00 by a length, providing none of his four opponents improve or return to their best. But the ante-post market this week (the last traded price on him before that line was closed was 1.855/6) has suggested he may just underperform to a significant degree.

Obviously, that market move factored in the chance of him not even being entered on Thursday morning as the rain continued to fall at Haydock, but it also underlined what a leveller conditions promise to be.

Expect heavy ground at Haydock

It is currently soft (good to soft in places) on the chase course but I'd be working on the basis of genuinely, officially or not, heavy ground by Friday night if the forecasts are correct. However much it dries out after that- and the weekend promises much better weather, to be fair - we shall see.

While A Plus Tard has won on heavy when trained in France, and is fully effective on soft ground, Haydock in deep conditions is not for the faint-hearted, and uniquely testing.

Will connections want to bottom him first time up?

There is also the question of how straight he will be here. That seems an odd question to ask about a horse who won this race by 22 lengths on his return last year, and of one who won the Gold Cup by 15 wickets in March off a fair break.

However, it may be worth remembering that before that reappearance win last year, he had been beaten on his seasonal debuts in 2018, 2019 and 2020, at odds of 7/4, 5/4 and 1/2.

So there is perhaps more than a glimmer of light for those who think they can get him beaten. The Cheltenham and Haydock wins above came on good to soft after all, and the jockeys thought it rode a lot quicker than that in this contest last term.

He is a fast stayer, and not a slogger.

Bristol may be the better bet

I can watch the race without a bet in truth but, if you want an interest then three-time winner Bristol De Mai each-way, two places, at 8/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook is the best play, for all the current 4/6 on the exchange about the favourite may seem one those rare gifts in hindsight. The 11yo will have his ground this year once again, and he will surely be fully revved for this.

Be warned, you will be on him win-only if one of his four rivals comes out because of the ground, though.

Wait to see what Nicholls decides

Hitman is the 1/2 favourite for the 2m5f152yd Graduation Chase at 13:50, but I am not at all sure if he will want the ground as testing as it promises to be, which is why Paul Nicholls has also entered him at Ascot, I guess.

It looks a race to sit on until we see which way Nicholls leans - Haydock is his preference, but he won't want to leave Hitman's King George bid behind him here though Minella Drama is a mudlover who looks set to get the run of the race from the front, even if the favourite rocks up.

Don't let Ailie Rose go unbacked

Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar is another who may not want it this deep in the 3m handicap hurdle at 14:25 and, while I can see the case for his main market rival Might I - his novice form against the likes of Constitution Hill, Jonbon and Three Stripe Life doesn't read too badly - I simply cannot let Ailie Rose go unbacked and untipped.

She was initially the outsider of the field at 40/1 (and 50s in place early on Thursday), and I couldn't understand that one bit.

She finished second to Graded performers Hollow Games and Gerri Colombe in maiden hurdles at Down Royal last season and she improved for a trip and softer ground afterwards.

She is one from one over this trip, albeit in a three-runner race at Ayr, and I thought she ran a very encouraging race over an inadequate 2m4f when third to Good Risk At All and Wholestone at Carlisle on her reappearance - she is 6lb better off with the winner, who is a single figure price in this, for a 5-length defeat - her first start for 201 days.

She was very weak in the betting there too, going off at a Betfair SP of 27/1 compared to Industry SP of 18/1, which suggests she needed it badly.

She looks a real stayer and, while I generally don't give a stuff about jockeys, the booking of 7lb claimer Ben Bromley (four from 19 this season) is fine by me. He rode a winner for the stable earlier in the month, and he can do 10 stone. I have a feeling a light racing weight could come in very handy at Haydock on Saturday afternoon.

Now, to the annoying bit. Very annoying, in fact.

The price was cut from 40/1 to 25/1 just before I filed at 3pm on Thursday and I nearly had a hissy fit and pulled the selection.

But I re-gathered myself and reminded myself that I wrote that 25/1+ would be acceptable in my original copy. So back her at 25/1 each way, four places.

Crosspark has stamina to succeed

I am going to chuck a few quid on Crosspark in the last at 21.020/1 or bigger on the Betfair Exchange. He is 20/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to back him win-only there, and that is obviously hunky dory, too. It may be the best option, in fact.

He is a win-only bet as fitness may find him out in this ground after a 574-day absence, though he won first time out in 2018 and was beaten just a nose on his comeback run in 2020.

He has obviously had his problems since we last saw him in the bet365 Gold Cup in April 2021 but I have a lot of time for his new trainer Nick Kent (a small stable but very capable, as two three winners from their last three runners underline, including one at Newcastle on Thursday).

This horse will not lack for stamina, being an Eider winner and a Scottish National runner-up.

He has winning form on heavy (though he disappointed on his only previous start here, which is a concern) and the handicapper has dropped him 6lb for his absence, which is very handy indeed.

He has blow-out potential but he doesn't look like a 20/1+ poke to me in this 3m1f+ handicap chase at 15:35.

Standing by Frero at Ascot

I'd fancy Hitman to beat L'Homme Presse if he went for Ascot's 14:05, but it is best to wait until Nicholls makes that call, and I really hope Constitution Hill comes out and destroys the opposition at odds of around 4s on in the 14:40. I suspect he will.

The track must have been very disappointed with the field sizes at Ascot, if not the quality of some of the names on show, but there are nine in the 2m handicap chase at 15:15, and I stand by my 12/1 win-only ante-post selection Frero Banbou from Tuesday.

So much so I am happy to press up here at 17/2 each-way, three places, with the Sportsbook.

Now, I think you have to be a bit of wary of the form of the Venetia Williams stable, as they are 0 from 32 this season.

I appreciate she has had a fair few seconds, and some bad luck with fallers, but some of her horses have patently not been finishing out their races after travelling well, so they could unquestionably be in better nick.

But Frero Banbou has already been out and run a cracker when splitting Thyme White and last year's winner Before Midnight over course and distance - he is 5lb better off with the 4 1/2 -length winner - and I expect that run to have done him the world of good, and the expected easier ground here will suit.

I'd have preferred it heavier, but good to soft (my working basis, with seemingly dry conditions from here on in) should be fine for him.

He won at Lingfield in heavy ground last season, finished third in the Grand Annual on the same going, and you had to love the way he travelled into his race here on good ground last month. He went through the race very kindly for his jockey, and that certainly wasn't the case on occasions last season.

In fact, he did miraculously well to finish third at Cheltenham considering how far he got detached early on, and that was off just a 1lb higher mark than this.

I like his chances win and place, so an each-way press-up bet is called for, methinks.

Good luck.

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