Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs 8/1 Gulliver to travel well in Ayr Silver Cup

• TC has to be with Gulliver in Silver Cup

• Antepost pick Crystal is sitting Pretty

• 16/117.00 worth the risk at Newbury

Ayr took the 41mm of rain from Sunday to Wednesday (and 63mm from last Friday, when the clerk described the ground as nearly firm) so well that they remarkably started their three-day meeting on Thursday on good to soft, good in places.

And the forecast from hereon in doesn't look that bad at all now, though forecasts vary from site to site. Maybe 6-7mm before racing on Saturday, and it has just started to rain again at Ayr at 4pm on Thursday, but who knows?

The official ground isn't currently anywhere near as soft as I was anticipating on Monday then (even though they pretty much got all of the rain that was forecast) but that doesn't matter for my 33/134.00 each way ante-post selection Pendleton as he wasn't even confirmed for the race at 10am on Thursday morning.

Suffice to say I was not a happy bunny when tracking the decs.

I have no idea why he is a no-show but I was mortified, so apologies are due and promptly given. I'll leave it there as my mood will darken if I dwell on it once again.

Ayr - 13:15: No bet

Anyway, I'll take Saturday's Ayr card in chronological order, and the opening 1m handicap at 13:15 has cut up badly from 25 entries at the five-day stage to just 10, and among some of the defectors are two or three of the ante-post market leaders, including the 5/16.00 poke Kathab.

I thought it remained a tricky race to call despite the reduced numbers.

There seems a fair bit of pace in here (six of the 10 have gone forward in the past) , so it should be a fairly-run race. Titan Rock and Redarna's chances would improve the drier it becomes, the 14/115.00 chance Sirona should be suited by the return to 1m off a career-low mark, but the obvious one is Revich.

Winner of this race in 2021, and beaten only two necks in last season's renewal, he has several pieces of form this term which give him a winning chance here, for all he can be an in-and-out performer.

His three-length defeat of Witch Hunter at Chester in May reads exceptionally well now, he got no sort of run when fourth at Sandown in July, and he ran solidly enough when third last time.

But he has the profile that was never going to be missed in the market, so I'll leave him alone, though 5/16.00 with the Sportsbook is not a bad bet, and you'll get bigger still on the exchange. His inconsistent profile put me off in the final analysis, though.

Ayr - 13:50: No bet

At the start of the week, Royal Champion was the Sportsbook's 2/13.00 ante-post favourite for the Doonside Cup at 13:50 but he is yet another surprising Saturday no-show, and My Prospero is now the firm market leader at 11/82.38.

Rated 119, he is obviously the class angle and he ran much better at York last time but the first-time cheekpieces would put me off - William Haggas' headgear stats are very ordinary for a man of his laser-like precision - and I'd prefer 11/26.50 poke Pride Of America.

He could get the run of the race from the front (though his rider can' t draw his usual 3lb here, unless he has ridden that out claim recently and I haven't noticed), and 3/14.00 chance Royal Rhyme.

The latter looks a proper tool when getting soft ground (on which he is three from three), and the deeper it gets (or the less it dries) the better his chances become. He looked Group-class all over when striding home at Goodwood, even if that was off a mark of just 95.

No bet at the moment for me, as I want to see how soft it is on the day for him (at the moment we could be looking at nearer good than soft), so one for Twitter Spaces at 8am on Saturday morning when we know the score. And the Group 1 winner Helvic Dream, at 7/18.00, is obviously no mug, coming over for Noel Meade.

Ayr - 14:25: Back Gulliver

Right, let's deal with the Ayr Silver and Gold Cups, and I'll cut straight to the chase on both.

In the Ayr Silver Cup at 14:25, the pace strongly suggests middle to high is the place to be so the favourite Rathbone, 7/18.00, 6lb well-in and drawn in stall 16, clearly has a huge chance.

However, Gulliver, in trap 22, won so well at Southwell last time that I have to be with him, even if he is 7lb higher here.

He won ridiculously easily there, having shaped with conspicuous promise when fifth to Pendleton at Thirsk previously (that had shades of a not-off in fact, but of course that doesn't happen these days). He remains a very well handicapped horse off 89 here, given his back class (rated as high as 110) and the fact that he finished a length third in the Gold Cup here off 98 in 2019.

I appreciate that was a while ago and he is a 9yo now, but he did look a rejuvenated horse at both Thirsk and Southwell.

Back him at 8/19.00 each-way, six places, with the Sportsbook. I appreciate it's a big field sprint handicap and very annoyingly the 10/111.00 and 9/110.00 went after I filed, but that 8s still looks fair enough with the extra places.

Ayr - 15:35: No bet

The well-in pair of Juan Les Pins (8lb) and Significantly (2lb) have obvious claims in the Gold Cup at 15:35, and I like their draws in 20 and 14, too - I would want to be middle to high again in this - and I'd marginally prefer the former if there is no more significant rain.

If there is more than currently forecast, then Aleezdancer comes straight into it, and of course it is impossible to rule out plenty of others like Bielsa and Rohaan.

Sods law, the one I liked at a price was Magical Spirit, a good third to Bielsa off a 2lb higher mark at York earlier in the season and ground-versatile and in stall 19. But the Sportsbook odds-compilers liked him too. They are 20/121.00 when he is 40/141.00 elsewhere, so I can hardly get involved there.

No, I'll sit this one out, even with Sportsbook again paying a generous six places, and stick with the ante-post loss.

Ayr - 15:00: Back Pretty Crystal

Earlier in the week, I pretty much said Raqiya was criminally short at 8/131.61 when looking at the 6f fillies' 2yo Group 3 Firth Of Clyde at 15:00, for all she was very impressive under a penalty at Haydock at the Betfair Sprint Cup meeting.

And nothing has changed since.

Timeform called the ground good to firm that day, so how she handles this expected easier ground is anyone's guess . It was good for her initial success at 1/41.25 at Salisbury.

I said on Monday that I wouldn't back her at 13/82.63 let alone 8/131.61 as, for all she had the look of a very good filly after Haydock, she certainly doesn't tower over these on form or on the clock.

She still makes absolutely no appeal at evens (though currently 2.3811/8 on the exchange), even with the field losing seven entries at the overnight stage. Similarly, I think the unbeaten 3/14.00 second favourite, Great Generation, is also underpriced.

The odds of both make the race a very attractive betting medium - don't forget, three of Raqiya's rivals are officially rated higher - and among that trio are my 20/121.00 ante-post each-way recommendation from Tuesday, Pretty Crystal.

Her owner had three in here at the five-day stage - the others being Beautiful Diamond and Tropical Island - but, thankfully, he relies on just Pretty Crystal, who remains a good bet at 9.08/1 or bigger.

She is as big as 10/111.00 and 9/110.00 in the wider marketplace, so that's conservative, and easily attainable, price to aim for. She is currently 9.89/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Trainer Richard Fahey has won two of the last three runnings of this race, and Pretty Crystal shaped very well in two Group 3 Ascot 6f contests on decent ground, the Albany at the Royal meeting and the Princess Margaret Stakes, before going to Goodwood last time.

She shaped particularly promisingly on the latter occasion at Ascot when not ideally positioned on the track, but coming home strongly from off the pace to finish second to a filly that finished a fair fourth in the Prix Morny next time, and she looked for all the world like a step back to this trip would suit when fourth to subsequent May Hill winner Darnation over 7f on heavy ground at Goodwood.

She travelled powerfully in the ground for 5f of that 7f contest, hitting evens in running, before tiring to finish fourth and 6f with a bit of dig will pose no issues. If it dries out then she handles a decent surface perfectly well, as the Princess Margaret performance showed.

She is a very well-bred filly, by Dubawi out of a 106-rated, dual Group 3 winning filly trained by Haggas, and I remain pretty sweet on her chance.

Dorothy Lawrence is the top-rated filly in here and the opening 12/113.00 about her on Thursday afternoon didn't last long - she is the stable-selected of three five-day entries for a Karl Burke stable in red-hot form. The same was true of Navassa Island, rated just 2lb inferior to Dorothy Lawrence and 1lb superior to Pretty Crystal, who was also quickly cut from an initial 11/112.00.

After what I said on Tuesday though, I seriously toyed with putting up all three here, but I was saved from doing so when they were cut again to 13/27.50 and 15/28.50 just before I filed. The 15/28.50 about Navassa Island still looks tempting, though, and I wouldn't put you off there.

With those three horses ranged against Raqiya, I may look to lay the favourite in the place market on Saturday. Again, though, I suspect a lot of people will have the same thoughts and she could well drift to a more realistic, and leave-alone, price.

I wouldn't be surprised if Raqiya headed out to 7/42.75 or so.

Newbury - 13:30 & 14:05: No bet

Newbury went heavy, soft in places as - along with most of the south, with torrential downpours (downpours are always torrential) - they got 39mm on Wednesday. It'll be interesting to see how the ground rides on Friday, though it looks pretty dry from here on in (a bit of rain around on Thursday afternoon, maybe 4mm or so before Saturday, but nothing too dramatic, it seems).

The reason why I wrote chapter and verse on Ayr is that Wednesday's rain had a big impact on the Newbury fields, with all four ITV races cutting up a fair amount. We still have two eight-runner races but you don't need me to tell you how precarious they are for each-way backers.

Five runners for the 5f Group 3 sprint at 13:30 is obviously a hugely disappointing turnout - I'd prefer Raasel at 3/14.00 over the returning Sense Of Duty at 11/82.38 but I won't be betting on it - and the same applies to the seven-runner 1m5f handicap at 14:05, as much as my old hurdling mucker Not So Sleepy is winking at me off a mark of 98 on ground he should relish.

I don't have much issue with Valsad heading the betting in the race, and Salt Bay gets the ground on which he finished third in a Group 1 in France at two once again, so it's a race easily swerved, in truth.

Newbury - 15:15: No bet

I don't have a strong opinion in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at 15:15, but fair play to the former owners of 3/14.00 chance Mister Sketch, who presumably got a pretty penny when the recent racing cash cow that is Wathnan Racing came a calling after his runaway win a Salisbury.

Red Zone Hero, who loves the mud, would be my token choice at 8/19.00 with the Sportsbook but no dice from me from a punting point of view. Obviously, the dead-eight is a worry for those itching for an each-way bet.

Newbury - 14:40: Back Millebosc

I was filthy at myself for tipping Balance Play - who runs in the 14:40 Dubai Duty Free Handicap - at York last time as a friend warned me he wouldn't appreciate the fast ground, and he was proved right. He was beaten after a furlong and was never travelling.

Back on softer ground, I was going to back him to build on the promise of his impressive Goodwood win, but that came off a 7lb lower mark than this, and I was hoping for a little bit bigger than 10/34.33 given the run last time, especially with the Ralph Beckett yard enjoying a rare quiet spell.

I am going to take leave of my senses and back Millebosc win-only at 16/117.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook. Or a similar price on the exchange.

Basically, this horse has looked un-cooperative and a bit of a pig on his last two starts, having shaped with distinct promise in the John Smith's Cup.

But I am hoping master planner Haggas pulled a stroke by running him over an inadequate 1m at Doncaster last Saturday, for which he was dropped 3lb - he actually made some late gains there in a race which he was well backed once again - and we all know he is handicapped to destroy this field on his French Derby third.

That 2021 formline is wearing more than a little thin but I'll take the risk at 16/117.00.

Good luck.