ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs 10/1 Duty Of Care on favourite course

Betfair horse racing tipster Tony Calvin
TC's one Saturday bet runs at Kempton

In his first Saturday racing preview with all new features, Tony Calvin makes the case for backing a 10/1 shot who has performed well at Kempton in the past...


This incessant rain is causing havoc with the racing schedule, and it is left to Saturday's all-weather meetings at Kempton and Chelmsford to fly the Levy Board flag domestically on ITV, with a bit of the Curragh thrown in.

Before we get on to the racing itself, just a note on additional features I will be including on the bottom of this column.

I will see how they are received this month - feel free to contact me, with DMs on X probably the best way - and then reassess. If you contact me directly on there on my timeline, I am happy to respond to everyone privately, fair or foul.

The first-time headgear stats are factual - as are the balloted-out runners (I will have to catch these in a timely manner just before 10am on the BHA site, or else I will be struggling) - but there is a certain amount of personal injection and interpretation into the pace angles and stable form features, as those are a manual process.

I will only include notable good/moderate runs of form in the latter category, and sometimes it may be empty.

You may disagree with them (as well as the pace maps) but, outside of the race and betting assessments, I am aiming to provide as much information for you to form your own opinion, too.

That is why I write at length, in the first instance, to give all the pertinent positives and negatives.

I would hardly call it a one-stop shop but hopefully the additional information is a help and a step in the right direction.


On to the racing, then. After the abandonment of Kelso, ITV have added two races from Kempton, and one apiece from Chelmsford and the Curragh.

And they did so in a very timely manner, announcing the revised schedule as soon as Kelso bit the dust.

I would hardly class myself as an all-weather specialist so I am treading carefully betting-wise, but Kempton offers up some decent racing.

As expected, the fields have held up remarkably well from the five-day entries.

We only lost two from the Listed fillies' race at 14:05 at the overnight stage - however, one of those was the 15/82.88 ante-post favourite Novus, and the other was 5s chance Cloud Cover - and we have maximum fields of 14 in the two ITV handicaps.

In fact, only Talis Evolvere wasn't confirmed for the Rosebery at 14:40, so if you backed any of the following ante-post you are entitled to your money back - No Surrender, Mustazeed, Andaleep, Winter Reprise, True Courage, Qitaal, Rathgar and Robusto.

Don't take no for an answer.

In fact, we also had three balloted out of the Queen's Prize at 15:50. They were Evaluation, Geremia and Tenerife Sunshine.

Again, if you backed any of those ante-post, it is money back, no arguments.

Kempton - 14:05: No bet

It's a shame that Novus and Cloud Clover have come out of the 14:05, as those were two you could have happily taken on, with the former having a 5lb penalty and the latter returning quickly after her Newcastle success last week.

Even in their absence, it is a very tricky race to call, but there is no guaranteed pace in here, so an opportunity has arisen for a trainer/jockey to take the initiative.

I have Mysterious Love and Rose Prick (drawn best in three, and about whom the early 40s was quickly taken on Thursday) as the likeliest candidates to press on, so that may be an angle in.

Many Tears was the main Sportsbook ante-post mover for this race earlier in the week, from 10/111.00 to 13/27.50 to 7/24.50, and you can fully see why, even though she carries a 3lb penalty for her Dundalk Listed win in November.

She was only rated 78 then, but she beat two 96-rated older fillies easily there, so maybe a revised mark of 95 underplays her a touch (though officially at these weights, she is actually the joint-third lowest-rated horse in here).

Furthermore, James Ferguson has his string in good form, and he has clearly inherited a promising filly from Ger Lyons (not that Ger has died, as that implies), and a very expensive one too, as she fetched an eye-watering 300,000gns at the Tatts mares' sale in December.

However, we are guessing on the fitness of many of these, in what is a very close-knit race on ratings (outside of Enola Grey and Mother Mary, and they are clearly not no-hopers), so I'll happily pass.

If you snaffled the bigger prices about Many Tears, now a 3/14.00 chance with the Betfair Sportsbook - though she is bigger on the Exchange at 4s-plus - then good luck, as you have done the hard part, from a long-term perspective anyway.

Outside of Many Tears, 5s chance Adelaise is the one that bookmakers immediately cut after seeing the overnight decs, having been 14s in the ante-post market.

Kempton - 14:40: No bet

I suspect we will get a few hard-luck, in-running stories in the 100k 1m3f Rosebery Handicap at 14:40, and it is a difficult enough puzzle to solve as it is.

I made a case for Youthful King (10s with the Sportsbook, but 14s elsewhere) earlier in the week - no tip, mind you - but this handicap simply gets trickier the more you look at it. I was hoping for a lower draw than 10 for him as well in the hope he would be ridden more aggressively than at Lingfield last week when an obvious eye-catcher from well off the speed.

Mind you, this occasional forward-goer should at least have a good pace to aim at, as I counted at least six others that could press on.

I was coming round to Chillingham, before one aspect put me off in the final analysis. Well, maybe two, as he is 13/27.50 with the Sportsbook and that seems only fair to me. Fair, but not overly-generous.

However, his stable are in very good nick, he won first time out last season, and I reckon a strongly-run 1m3f could play to his strengths given his proven stamina over further.

And the fact that he is only 1lb higher than when rounding off last season with a narrow second to Prydwen (now 11lb higher), with three subsequent winners following them directly home, is another big plus.

But he wore a tongue-tie there and I just wonder why they have left it off here. It is probably something and nothing, but it nagged away at me. That and 13 rivals that you can all give a chance too - notably, Intinso, who could cast a huge shadow of this race but 4s is probably his price now (he was clipped from 5s) and trap one could be tricky - including the 25s stable-switcher Londoner.

No bet, but I do like one in the Queen's Prize at 15:15.

Kempton - 15:15: Back Duty of Care

Step forward (and probably stepping forward late on the scene from well off the pace, too) Duty Of Care. He is a bet at 11.010/1 or bigger win-only on the Betfair Exchange or fixed-odds.

The Sportsbook are paying four places here (as they are on the Rosebery) and are 10/111.00, but I am inclined to go on the nose myself. The 10s is fully available across the Oddschecker grid, by the way, as this goes live.

Back Duty of Care @ 11.010/1 Betfair Exchange

Bet here

Dual course winner Duty Of Care makes a quick turnaround from Newcastle last week and that plays a role in my win-only betting strategy, as he certainly didn't have an easy time of it in finishing sixth there.

Don't get me wrong, I think you can upgrade that performance as he had no chance from off the pace there. Drawn 13 of 13, he was simply poorly positioned in rear throughout before some late gains.

Being drawn 14 of 14 hopefully won't be so detrimental here, with six forward-goers, and he returns to the scene of many of his better efforts. Indeed, a lot of them have been over course and distance, including a second in this very race off a mark of 92 in this race last season.

Off a mark of 90, he has a good chance at the weights, and I am just hoping we have a pace collapse in the last furlong or so, for Saffie Osborne to exploit on his favourite course.

Kempton - 13:30 and 15:45: No bet

ITV have also added the 13:30 and 15:45 races at Kempton to their schedule, but both feature very lightly-raced horses and, as such, are very difficult to call.

That said, impressive Newmarket back-end winner, and 1,000 Guineas entry, Devoted Queen is the ultra-strong 2/51.40 favourite with the Sportsbook for the five-runner fillies' conditions race at 15:45. She does meet three decent sorts though, so that looks short enough, for all her potential.

Chelmsford - 15:30: No bet

There is a cracking eight-runner conditions race at Chelmsford at 15:30, and it is no surprise to see Royal Lodge third Capulet, who will be ridden by Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore, and cosy Newcastle winner Cuban Tiger head the betting.

However, I think the over-priced one is surely Orne, 5lb better off for the three lengths and a neck he was beaten by Cuban Tiger at Newcastle.

He was all over the place there, racing far too keen and then being switched outside and then in again, before taking third close home, so the first-time cheekpieces (see the trainers' record below) could help him to race optimally.

At 5/16.00 - and currently 6.611/2 on the Exchange - he is my idea of the bet in the race if you want one, though I see no need to force one myself.

A lot could depend on how straight evens poke Capulet is; Aidan O'Brien runners at this stage of the season are very hard to call, but the vibes seem pretty strong for him. He has been clipped from 6/42.50 since Thursday afternoon by the Sportsbook.

If I knew the eight runners would stand, the 5s each way would be very appealing about Orne, but few things are guaranteed in life and dead-eights standing up certainly ain't one.

Curragh - 14:55: No bet

ITV's plan to show the Group 3 Alleged Stakes at 14:55 may yet also be thwarted by the weather, as the Curragh are inspecting at 7:30am on Saturday morning.

They are currently heavy there after another 6.5mm overnight and, while they are raceable at present, they are forecast another 8-11mm in the next 24 hours and Storm Kathleen could bring high winds in for good measure.

It'll be a shame if it is off, as it looks a decent race, featuring the unpenalised Derby third White Birch, and plenty of other horses well up to this grade.

However, no-one has priced up the race at the time of this column going live, so there is little point discussing it, but I thought Mashhoor could get an uncontested lead if they wanted it, even if Village Voice went forward last time.

And it sounds like the ground will be an acquired taste even if the meeting survives, so maybe it is best to revisit this in the morning with all the ground and weather information to hand, and not least the odds.

Best of luck.


ITV Racing Betting Information

Pace Angles

Kempton

13:30: Not enough information given seven of the 10 have raced once, and another two just twice

14:05: Mysterious Love?, Rose Prick (prominent)

14:40: Cemhaan, Killybegs Warrior, Laafi, Londoner?, Valsad, Captain Wierzba, Youthful King?

15:15: Island Brave, Sleeping Lion, Manu Et Corde, Solent Gateway, Sweet Fantasy, Circuit Breaker

15:45: Ahlain (though not a lot of information to go on)

Chelmsford

15:30: Blue Lemons, Capulet, Orne?, Under The Sun

Curragh

14:55: Mashhoor, Village Voice?

Balloted out (ante-post punters entitled to money back)

2.40pm Kempton - No Surrender, Mustazeed, Andaleep, Winter Reprise, True Courage, Qitaal, Rathgar and Robusto

3.15pm Kempton - Evaluation, Geremia, Tenerife Sunshine

First-time headgear stats

William Haggas cheekpieces 26-170 (since 2016)

Olly Murphy blinkers 1-33 (2017)

Andrew Balding - hood 12-187 (2010)

Rod Millman - hood 1-17 (2013)

John Gosden - cheekpieces 14-105 (2016)

John and Thady Gosden - cheekpieces 9-80 (2021)

Notable stable form of trainers

Good: Eve Johnson Houghton, James Ferguson, Roger Varian, Ed Bethell, Andrew Balding, Olly Murphy, Richard Hannon, Richard Hughes, James Horton (all three of his recent runners have gone well)

Moderate: Jack Channon (not too many runners, though - and, a hey presto update, he had a 17/2 winner of the 4.05 at Lingfield on Friday), Brian Ellison (despite a recent 22/1 winner), Noel Meade

Undecided: Jonjo O'Neill (despite three recent short-priced winners), Aidan O'Brien

Coming into form: James Fanshawe


Now read Ryan Moore: Capulet sets the standard at Chelmsford on Saturday


Recommended bets

GET £40 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £40 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.