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Trainer with a superb 65% strike-rate to start off the multiple
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Catching an Aintree chaser fresh the key to outsider over fences
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Alan Dudman picks out a Saturday treble at Aintree that pays a massive 164/1165.00
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Sam Thomas is clearly up-and-running for the campaign and at the time of writing on Friday, the yard were a veritable gold rush of winners with five from eight at 63% in the past two weeks.
He was a rapid improver over fences last season - enjoying a fine novice campaign over the larger ones, capped off with a Grade 3 Handicap over 3m at Kempton.
Rain would be welcome, but his Kempton demolition job winning by 15L came in good to soft and we've seen this week how Rebecca Curtis used a hurdle race and a Pertemps Qualifier with Haiti Couleurs as a prep and a possible angle down the line winning from 145 at Newbury - and Katate Dori for a yard in "rude health" to coin a phrase from a commentator, has to be of interest here from his mark of 132, and he gets weight from Impose Toi.
Back Katate Dori in the 12:55 at Aintree
Ben Pauling got the ball rolling with last week's treble and he's another trainer setting off on the front foot with a recent strike-rate of 25%, but his strike-rate with chasers is superior at a massive 35% this season with 17 fencing winners already on the board.
Pauling's Champagne Twist was less Pol Roger and more Shandy or Special Brew last term having unseated in a hurdles' race at Cheltenham in November, and afterwards in two non-descript winners the season looked a write off.
He starts chasing, and we have those Pauling chaser stats to boost and aid the chances, and Champagne Twist clearly has ability as a winner of the EBF Novices' Final at Sandown in the spring of 2024.
The selection needs to get back on track. He has winning form on soft but good to soft might suit him even more as after a win the Sandown win, Pauling was quoted as saying: "He's not short of a turn of foot either and I think on better ground, you would see a better horse."
I think the mark of 129 looks pretty lenient on old form.
Back Champagne Twist in the 13:30 at Aintree
This is the outsider of the treble troika, and I backed a Jane Williams fancied runner at Newbury on Thursday only to flatten out after a bad mistake - but Inside Man was very warm in the market in that race.
Javert Allen is a 7/18.00 outsider of sorts, but 2m on good to soft are just about what surfers' call his "golden hour".
The key here is catching him fresh, as he won at Chepstow last November off a break of 323 days, was a debut winner at Bangor in 2022 in heavy and also finished second at Ludlow after 293 days on the resting list.
He jumped really well at Newbury last term - winning from 120, and as I often say, if you can jump well at Newbury you can jump anywhere.
We used to have Rod, Jane and Freddy. This weekend we have Sam, Jane and Benny.
Back Javert Allen in the 14:05 at Aintree
Back Saturday's three Aintree picks in a treble here