Newbury Big Race Verdict: Back two at 15/2 and 20/1

• Full field of 16 set for Newbury feature on Saturday

• Each-way potential at 20/121.00 and a rock-solid pick at 15/28.50

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Listen to this week's Racing...Only Bettor

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Newbury 15:20 Saturday - weather conditions miserable

As of Friday morning the ground was raceable in Berkshire, according to the track commissars anyway at Newbury, and that's in the face of standing water on the hurdles' course. A further look later in the afternoon will be required.

The going stick makes for grim reading too, the only thing that could add gloom to the mood with the weather and forecast is for Ed Sheeran to rock up for a concert post-racing with his boring banjo.

It's heavy all the way brothers and sisters.

The master versus the apprentice - Nicholls v Skelton

Such is the acceleration of Dan Skelton now in terms of prize money and big race success, catching Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls means we have two masters now.

Skelton's mare Let It Rain 9/43.25 heads the Betfair Sportsbook market for the 15:20 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday and Nicholls' Tutti Quanti 11/26.50 has been backed into second favourite from 13/27.50.

Let It Rain, perhaps the most apt contender ever, has the look of a very well-treated runner, a perfect profile for the race you could say from 122, and has had the lightest of campaigns thus far.

She acted on the soft terrain at Ascot in December, which was her first run of the season and first in a handicap, and she travelled very well from the back. The form has been boosted too with the first and second from that race and there isn't a lot to dislike bar the price in such a large field.

Tutti Quanti won the Gerry Feilden by three lengths in November and fully deserved his 8lb rise to 138. With that CD win under his belt and form in soft, Nicholls said today in his exclusive Betfair column:

"He's a smart horse, he's maturing all the time, he was sixth in the Supreme last year. He needed his first run this year, as we knew he would, and then he won very nicely in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury in November, and that has turned out to be good, decent form.

"This has been his target and he will love the ground. He has got to carry 12 stone, which probably tells you he is the best horse in the race, but it is a competitive handicap that is always hard to win. We think he has got a lovely chance."

On Timeform figures, Tutti Quanti holds a rating of 146 and a HIF while Let It Rain is 2lb higher with the Halifax massive at 148p and also a HIF.

Betfair Sportsbook market moves

Hot Fuss, won a valuable pot at Windsor last time for Tom Dascombe and he needs the mud flying around. Despite his penchant for the rain, his price has gone out from 9/110.00 to 12/113.00 in the face of what will be a personal best from a mark of 130.

The Hardest Geezer for Philip Hobbs and Johnson White was fourth behind Hot Fuss at Windsor and fourth in the Let It Rain Ascot race, so it's hard to see him suddenly shooting into another form stratosphere, but his price has contracted markedly from 18/119.00 into 12/113.00. He was one of the biggest movers on Friday morning.

Wreckless Eric from 25/126.00 into 16/117.00 is another positive, but I rarely back anything from the Jonjo O'Neill yard as unearthing truffles is an easier task.

Bucephalus is a soft ground lover and was cut on Friday lunchtime from 33/134.00 into 20/121.00.

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Pace map and tactics

FRONT RUNNERS: Tutti Quanti, Bucephalus, Wellington Arch, Un Sens A La Vie, Milldam.

PROMINENT: Wellington Arch, Lanesborough, Hot Fuss, Bubble Dubi, Wreckless Eric, Dance And Glance.

MID-DIVISION: Faivoir, The Hardest Geezer.

HELD-UP: Go Dante, Bubble Dubi? All In You, Let It Rain.

Trainer form

Paul Nicholls: 10-27 at 37% last 14 days. At Newbury this term 4-20 at 20%.

Dan Skelton: 13-57 at 23% last 14 days: At Newbury this term 3-25 at 12%.

Ben Pauling: 3-21 at 14% last 14 days. At Newbury this term 2-24 at 8%.

Olly Murphy: 8-37 at 22% last 14 days. At Newbury this term 1-20 at 5%.

Warren Greatrex: 1-10 at 10% last 14 days. At Newbury this term 1-9 at 11%.

Jonjo O'Neill: 2-20 at 10% last 14 days.

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Is there an each-way bet?

There are five places on the Sportsbook and hopefully all 16 entries will stand their ground. I put up Double Powerful for Neil Mullholland in the Lanzarote Hurdle at a big price and finished second, and his Bucephalus is certainly better than a 33/134.00 chance.

Or at least, he was before the market move as highlighted into 20/121.00. He finished second at Haydock in late December, not shabby form at all with Brentford Hope in third, and with a break since and the yard in better form now, I want to include him in the 1-2-3-4.

Go Dante has a couple of Imperial Cups to his name but there is virtually no love for him despite those Sandown heroics from days gone by and he is a 25/126.00 shot.

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Big Race Verdict 1-2-3-4

I am sticking to my antepost selection from Tuesday with Ben Pauling's Lanesborough as he has proven stamina, soft ground form and looked miles ahead of his mark when bolting up at Doncaster. The Donny form with Williethebuilder has been franked, and Lanesborough I am sure, found the going too quick in the Lanzarote Hurdle.

Tutti Quanti's price, while a lot bigger than Let It Rain, is still fair enough for a front-runner with more to give from 138, and Nicholls has highlighted in his Betfair blog that the going will be perfect.

Another for the quartet is Un Sens A La Vie, who was pitched into a Grade in November and got back on track with an easy win at Ludlow from the front. The Twister has trained previous winners of this race in Ballyandy and Al Dancer, both with similar profiles and another from a good mark of 130.

1) Lanesborough

2) Tutti Quanti

3) Un Sens A La Vie

4) Bucephalus

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Now read Sam Turner on his Saturday horse racing tips

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