Friday Racing Tips: It's Nickle Back Friday at 4/1 for Tony Calvin at Newbury

• Max of Stars is one to consider Without Favourite

• 4/15.00 Nickle Back is a very fair price

• Could Flight Deck take off at 20/121.00?

• Will racing go ahead at Newbury this weekend?

• Read about Betfair's Serial Winners Charity Fund

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The frost covers have been down at Newbury, so hopefully they will have done their job and it is good news when they are peeled back on Friday morning.

The daytime temperatures need to play ball too, as it is not set to get above freezing at Newbury until 11am on race day. It is currently set to be even colder on Saturday.

Newbury - 13:15: No bet

It is a fair card if and when it gets the green light and ITV's five races kick off with the juvenile fillies' hurdle at 13:15.

The first two contests on Racing TV are of interest too, and the hype merchants may have already gone home in a sulk if Jeriko Du Reponet hasn't won a very weak opener (12:10) by a distance.

For all that I wouldn't read anything into that half-speed racecourse gallop with Dusart here last week, it is hard to see him being beaten in a race that lacks any credible dangers.

Anyway, I digress.

Gordon Elliott has left Kala Conti at home, presumably to wait for Fairyhouse on Sunday, but he has a very able deputy in Wodhooh, and he has also thrown Doctor Nightingale on the box for good measure.

When I say able deputy, that is rather downplaying it as the unbeaten Wodhooh is unpenalized for her three wins to date and boasts the best form and speed figures by some distance.

She is obviously the one to beat here in the 13:15, as her Sportsbook odds of 8/131.61 suggest - it was interesting that Elliott namechecked this race for her after she won at Punchestown on October 10th - but I thought long and hard as to whether to oppose her with Max Of Stars.

She can certainly have done without the 3lb penalty she carries here for her Market Rasen win last time, but, having won four of her six hurdling starts and finished runner-up on the other two occasions, she does have a very likeable profile.

The Market Rasen win was her best performance yet, with the second winning at Chepstow next time, and we are seeing her here as her intended engagement at Wetherby on November 3 was scuppered by the weather.

Max of Stars is the clear second-best going into the race, though that penalty is unhelpful, as is the fact that this forward-goer could have three rivals for the lead.

She was 7/18.00 in the ante-post market, and we lost four entries at the overnight stage, so the question I had to answer was whether her current price of 13/27.50 was big enough to tempt me in.

Ideally, I would wait for the Without Favourite markets to appear but they probably won't do so on the Sportsbook until late on Thursday afternoon, so that wasn't an option. And I have to point out that she is 15/28.50 and 7/18.00 elsewhere for each-way purposes.

I decided against a small each-way bet at 13/27.50 - I can't really be advising her at that price - but, assuming I can get odds I am happy with, and that would be, perhaps optimistically, in the vicinity of 2/13.00, I will play her without Wodhooh.

I really don't fancy much else in the race, for all we are largely dealing with unexposed youngsters admittedly.

I bet and tip in novices' chases as often as I do in 2yo races on the Flat (very rarely) as there is too much guesswork involved.

How do we know how the debutants Hermes Allen, the evens favourite, and No Ordinary Joe have schooled over fences at home?

Newbury - 13:50: Back Nickle Back

At least we have seen four of the six in the 13:50 over fences in public, and none of those have been more impressive than Nickle Back was in his wide-margin handicap wins at Warwick and Stratford.

Like the other chase winners in here, he doesn't carry a penalty as neither of his successes came in Class 2 company, so I'd probably say he was a very fair price at 4/15.00 with the Sportsbook, for all he is a headstrong character, a trait not dulled by a hood.

In fact, on a very quiet day I am willing to tip him to small stakes at 4s, the generally available price in the marketplace, or 5.04/1 or bigger on the Exchange. I've backed him at that price.

He laughed at Kandoo Kid, a narrow second here next time, at Warwick, and did the same to Hystery Bere (a fair second at Wetherby on Wednesday) off a mark of 135 at Stratford.

He could do with Hermes Allen and Tightenourbelts not pestering him for the lead, though the latter looks set to have an early pop at him. It's one of the reasons that I am playing small, that and the threat of Hermes Allen, among others.

Newbury - 14:25: No bet

We currently have nine runners in the 2m3f187yd 0-150 handicap chase at 14:25 but be warned Whodini's first preference is to run at Doncaster on Friday. We are effectively looking at the ever-precarious dead-eight here.

So this is probably a good time to discuss the effect having first covers down can have on the ground. A lot of jockeys I have spoken to say it often rides very dead as a result, and plenty of horses don't like it. Negative feedback from earlier races could just see a defection.

Unlikely but possible if you are looking to play each-way.

My default position in this type of handicap invariably seems to be "tip Frero Banbou if he is entered" and that blinkered approach is something I really have to ditch.

So, while he is surely handicapped to win races off 133, especially after shaping so well over 2m5f in the Grand Sefton first time up - allied to that impressive stable form - a detached assessment has to be that he is surely poorly priced at the Sportsbook's 5/23.50.

You can make a case for several of his opponents, notably the aforementioned Kandoo Kid, so I would want at least 7/24.50 before getting involved.

And that doesn't look like happening.

Newbury - 15:00: No bet

I also wasn't expecting Marie's Rock to be as short as evens under a 6lb penalty in the 3m Grade 2 hurdle at 15:00 - and that is actually the best price out there - though I suppose she has the sexiest profile and pretty much confirmed her 3m stamina when second to Sire Du Berlais in the Liverpool Hurdle in April.

She may be best at 2m4f, but she stays this trip.

Paisley Park, winner of this race in 2019, and placed in the following three years, also has a 6lb burden to overcome, so that route leads you to Dashel Drasher, race-fit after a comeback third at Wetherby and who can boast course form figures of 34121, at 10/34.33.

He is actually 4s in a couple of places in the wider marketplace and no way would I lay that. In fact, I'd tip him if the Sportsbook was also 4/15.00.

He could get his own way out in front too, but I was strangely drawn to Flight Deck at 20/121.00.

Strange in the fact that he has 17lb to find with Dashel Drasher on official figures, and 11lb and 9lb respectively with Marie's Rock and Paisley Park at these weights.

However, Flight Deck ran a screamer when third in a Pertemps qualifier on his debut for the yard in first-time blinkers at Cheltenham on his return - his 3lb claimer set sail for home a long way out and did well to finish third - and he often promised to be a very good horse for Jonjo O'Neill last season, particularly when winning in a good time at Chepstow, though his inconsistency was there for all to see.

In the final analysis though, I can see him outrunning his odds but perhaps finding at least one of the big three too good.

For the sake of transparency, I may throw a few quid at him each-way if he drifts to 25s or bigger. He is currently 20s across the board.

Newbury - 15:35: No bet

If Flight Deck does run a screamer, many see that as a pointer to Hyland's chance in the concluding 3m handicap hurdle, as Nicky Henderson's progressive 6yo had him 5 ½ lengths away in third when winning at Cheltenham.

However, Hyland was never going to be missed in the market anyway, as he is the 11/43.75 favourite, having gone up 6lb for that clear-cut win.

I don't have too much issue with that price, though this does look a competitive 12-runner heat, and one where I see a lot of potential pace in the race.

Skandiburg was one of two horses that interested me at the five-day stage in my Monday ante-post column (the other was Max Of Stars) but I wanted bigger than 20s then, especially as he was big as 33s elsewhere.

He remains a 20/121.00 chance with the Sportsbook and I can still let him go untouched. He is a 9yo now, on a big losing streak since winning at Cheltenham on New Year's Day in 2020 (15 defeats since), and prone to running a complete stinker.

However, a mark of 120 clearly gives him more than a fighting chance if connections have him revved up for this (this is their first runner of the season).

He was actually a 10 ½ length fifth off a 22lb higher mark than this in this very race in 2021, and that tells you how much he has cascaded down the handicap since.

He is probably one to look to back win-only on the Exchange at 40.039/1 or bigger once the market there beefs up on Friday afternoon, though. You can easily see him being friendless there.

This is a very early column, but I have things to do later today this afternoon and tomorrow morning. So, if I waited, I wouldn't be nailed to a computer to make sure all the prices were correct as soon as the publish button was hit, and to do the re-writes, if necessary.

Accuracy is all, after all. Back on Friday morning with a Saturday column.

Good luck

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