Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Cloudy Glen could be another Williams winner

• TC's Fighting Fifth and Coral Gold Cup view

• Cloudy Glen will be of interest if confirmed

• Read about Rachael Blackmore's Serial Winners Fund

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Ante-post ground housekeeping first, as always.

The going for Newbury's two-day meeting starting on Friday is currently good to soft on the chase track and good to soft, soft in places, on the hurdles course after 4mm overnight (the last BHA update was 8:34m on Monday), with possibly a touch more rain throughout the rest of Monday. The rain is set to return from Thursday onwards.

So maybe work on the basis of soft for later in the week there, though of course forecasts vary from site to site.

In fact, one has a dry week from here on in, with overnight temperatures as low as -3 from Wednesday night. So let's see what occurs.

Newcastle Saturday 13:55 - No bet

It would probably take Gorilla Super Glue at Newcastle on Saturday, to nail him to the floor, to stop Constitution Hill winning what looks like being a pretty pitiful Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, with only six confirmed on Monday.

Little wonder he is 1/61.17 with the Sportsbook. We can easily park any chat on that race then, though hopefully 5/16.00 chance Love Envoi can keep him honest to a degree.

The ground in Geordieland is currently good to soft, soft in places (last BHA update was 4:55pm on Sunday) and the forecast is pretty similar to Newbury. That is, plenty of rain throughout Monday, and a dry couple of days before it gets a fair soaking again on Thursday and Friday.

So definitely soft there then, with probably a bit of heavy thrown in.

Newbury Saturday 15:00 - No bet

I looked at Saturday's Newbury's Coral Gold Cup at 15:00 for the first time on Sunday morning (there were 41 in the race at time) and I actually took a flier - well as much as you can fly for about £45 quid - and backed three horses to small stakes on the Betfair Exchange.

I had no idea if they were intended runners at the time, and all had their downsides, but they stood out to me for the modest sums available, so I had £15 on Major Dundee at an average of 34.9339/10, £14.76 on Cloudy Glen at 45.85897/20 and a very speculative £14.36 on Undersupervision at [101.37).

Undersupervision was actually 11lb out of the handicap at that stage on 9st 5lb, but I reasoned the top four in the weights (Ahoy Senor, Protektorat, Royale Pagaille and Corach Rambler) wouldn't be confirmed. As a result, we were looking at the nature of the race changing significantly on Monday. The fifth in the weights on Sunday was Stolen Silver on just 11st 2lb.

So how did that work out after the confirmations at midday on Monday?

The first thing to say is that the 41 has now become 23 - there is a maximum field of 24 allowed, so the race has already failed to fill - and it's a good job I wasn't betting to any meaningful degree on Sunday morning as Major Dundee and Undersupervision (I really do think they may have missed a trick with the latter) were Monday no-shows.

And, to cap off an impressive (not) weekend reading of the race, Ahoy Senor, top weight on 12st, has been left in.

I don't know if it is the plan for the horse to take part in this race, but he'd probably be near the bottom of my punting list at 14/115.00 if he does, racing off a mark of 169 after a hugely underwhelming return in the Charlie Hall.

Complete Unknown jointly heads the betting at 6/17.00 with the Sportsbook and I have no real argument with that.

Second to Gerri Colombe over 3m1f at Aintree, he returned to beat Might I over 2m5f at Newton Abbot on his return and he has a likeable, progressive profile.

However, he has never won beyond 2m5f and never raced over further than 3m1f, and his form figures at and around 3m read 2522. A slight concern perhaps, though he finished strongly enough at Aintree.

John McConnell is responsible for the second favourite Mahler Mission and I hope the stable cat has at least 10 lives, as it would surely have needed them of late.

McConnell is 0 from 147 on the Flat since September, and 0 from 36 jumps in Ireland since October. The only plus points in recent times were his three wins from 12 in this country over the sticks (it's been a long while since I wrote that very 80s phrase) last month.

Obviously, he has gone close on occasions since but that is some quiet spell. And that alone must make you think twice about backing 13/27.50 poke Mahler Mission.

Don't get me wrong, the horse could prove well handicapped off 151 on his National Hunt Chase fall two out - who knows whether he would have held on to his big lead, but I reckon he would have - and he shaped well enough over an inadequate 2m4f at Carlisle on his return.

But he is easily left alone at his price, even without that stable form to juggle with.

Monbeg Genius is the third horse vying for favouritism in the market - in fact he is currently the 6/17.00 joint favourite - though he has to bounce back from a decidedly underwhelming reappearance effort at Ascot, a race in which he was pulled up after a modest display of jumping.

Of course, he is a big player on his Ultima third to Corach Rambler and Fastorslow, a race that worked out rather well, even if he did go up 7lb for it, but I'd want a fair bit bigger than 6s about him given the Ascot run.

Of the others Stumptown at 9/110.00 has to be feared purely on the form of Gavin Cromwell's horses in the UK this autumn, with five winners from 17 runners. The Kim Muir runner-up may not have run too well this season but this outfit can certainly ready one for a big pot. And this is certainly that, even if the number of five-day entries does not reflect that.

But back to my one live bet in the race then, Cloudy Glen, currently 25/126.00 with the Sportsbook.

His form rather fell off a cliff after he won this race first time out in 2021 and the handicapper has been very slow to show kindness. He is actually still 2lb higher despite not showing a great deal in his six starts since.

Actually, that is not strictly true, as he ran well enough over an extended 3m4f at Haydock back in February - 28/129.00 pre-race, he hit 2.35/4 in running before his stamina possibly ran out - and he clearly bumped into one when second at Cheltenham on his return.

We will be hearing a lot more about the 10-length winner Malina Girl, and the third and fourth were well fancied, so I thought that was a very promising reappearance.

The problem I have with Cloudy Glen is he has such a good record first time up that there must be a chance he may regress from the Cheltenham run, especially as he is a 10yo now.

He certainly went backwards after his win here in 2021, and after that Haydock run.

So will Venetia Williams look to give the horse more time after that outing just eight days ago and bypass this race, maybe waiting for the Welsh National perhaps?

In an interview last month, Williams hinted as much by saying: "He often runs well fresh, so I'm trying to find a nice race for him first time out. There's a temptation to wait for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury but he'll be ready to run before and we'll have to consider the options."

I am not going to tip him ante-post here then. But he will be of interest to me on the day if he is confirmed on Thursday.

In Venetia, we trust. Especially given the way her horses are flying.

But not just yet with this one, even if this could turn out to be a small field for the money.

If Ahoy Senor does go, Cloudy Glen would be 1lb out of the handicap.

And you should be aware of more potential no-shows.

Jamie Snowden's pair of Datsalrightgino and GA Law are also entered in Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase on Saturday, as is Bill Baxter.

Sail Away has two other options this week at Newbury, too, and Shake Em Up'Harry is also entered in the 2m6f handicap chase on this card, as is Twig. It probably isn't the wisest to have that alternative 0-145 handicap, open to those rated up to 147 as well, on the same card, as you are asking for trouble.

So this could well cut up, which would be a crying shame for a race with 142k-to-the-winner. Mind you, there were only 12 runners in 2017, and 15 last year and in 2015.

Nicky Henderson really has thrown a spanner in the ante-post betting for that Rehearsal Chase at 15:05 on Saturday by declaring a certain Shishkin, quite literally fresh from his refusal to race at Ascot at the weekend.

It'd be a fair old shout to run him off 173 in likely testing ground - and it would also see most of his 16 rivals running from out of the handicap - but L'Homme Presse won this off 164 last year, I suppose and Henderson is sending the box up north with Constitutional Hill anyway.

He may decide to roll the big dice and have another shot of getting a run into him ahead of the King George.

No prices are available as I file this, so I may come back to the race on Tuesday if I see anything of any betting interest.

In fact, I probably will, with two other Saturday ITV races yet to be priced up, though the decs for those only became widely known around 13:30 on Monday. They may not be available until early Monday evening.

I'll also put some fresh eyes on the Coral Gold Cup on Monday night too, to see if I missed anything obvious.

I also did have a look at the five ITV races on Friday that the Sportsbook have priced up, with Max Of Stars at 6s each way in the juvenile fillies' hurdle at 13:15 and Skandiburg at 20s in the 3m handicap hurdle at 15:35 appealing most.

The case for Max Of Stars revolves around her form and time claims, and the fact that Gordon Elliott is unlikely to bring across all three of his entries (which are priced up at 5/42.25, 2/13.00 and 10/111.00, therefore taking a huge chunk out of the market) , so the race could cut up.

Skandiburg is on a very attractive mark of 120 but he is the sort to trade bigger on the Exchange on the day (and he is also 33s in a place), so I am not betting either myself at the moment. I am happy to leave all five contests alone until I see the final fields on Wednesday morning.

Good luck. I'll probably back on Tuesday, but no promises.

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