December Gold Cup Big Race Verdict: Vincenzo can go one better in Saturday clash

• Three places on the Sportsbook for Cheltenham feature on ITV

• Paddy Power Gold Cup second a key player

• Alan Dudman picks his 1-2-3 verdict in his latest big race preview 

• It's day three of the World Darts - read our tips here!

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Jagwar key horse for first run of the season

Eleven runners for this year's December Gold Cup and the highlight from Cheltenham (13:50) for Saturday with a couple of key question marks towards the top of the market.

How fit and primed with Jagwar be for his first run of the campaign?

There's a bit of confidence at least behind the chaser on the Sportsbook, as he wasn't drifting on Friday at a steady 10/34.33 from 4/15.00. That is not surprising as a festival winner of the Plate Handicap from 139 last March - surging away with ears pricked at the end on good to soft. Ground conditions fine, track and trip fine, yard form less so (more on the stats later).

The only other quibble away from yard form was his jumping in the Plate as he was less than fluent and he cannot afford any rustiness on return.

I suppose if Jagwar were to undergo a rebrand, the team would change the jumping a little.

Paddy Power Gold Cup second and third do battle again

Last month's big handicap chase that preceded this big handicap chase involved the second and third from the Paddy Power in Vincenzo and Hoe Joly Smoke.

Vincenzo was my pick that day and was my selectin in this week's antepost column and I thought he ran a decent race for a young horse on only his fifth run steeplechasing.

With Sam Thomas' horses they tend to be straightforward, as was Vincenzo, who was up with the lead and jumped well throughout, and s an unexposed sort at the 2m4f extended trip, he saw it out well.

You would like to think he could improve on that run (his first of the season) and his fitness is almost certainly a positive in terms of taking on Jagwar, who I suspect has a lot more class, but sometimes in cricket days are made for grinding it out like a Chris Tavare (for those old enough to remember) rather than a blistering eight from two balls in T20 snore games.

Hoe Joly Smoke's new stablemate Panic Attack has taken all the glory in the 2m4f chasing honours, as she's improved about 250lb since leaving David Pipe to Dan Skelton - indeed, must have gained 10lb just on the lorry towards Skelton.

His two thirds, both over 2m4f at both the Showcase and Paddy Power meeting means he has a good feel for the course, and is still fairly treated from 131 and with Ga Law in the race with 12 stone, is from an attractive weight.

Pace map and tactics

• FRONT RUNNERS: Ga Law, Imperial Saint? Il Ridoto.
• PROMINENT: Ga Law, Colonel Harry, Imperial Saint, Il Ridoto, Vincenzo, Es Perfecto.
• MID-DIVISION: Jagwar, Colonel Harry.
• HELD:UP: Jagwar, Martator, Kim Roque, Hoe Joly Smoke.

Trainer form

• Jamie Snowden last 14 days: 5-15 at 33%
• Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero last 14 days: 2-24 at 8%
• Philip Hobbs and Johnson White last 14 days: 4-28 at 14%
• Venetia Williams last 14 days: 3-24 at 13%
• Paul Nicholls last 14 days: 4-34 at 12%
• Sam Thomas last 14 days: 3-8 at 38%
• Alan King last 14 days: 3-21 at 14%
• Dan Skelton last 14 days: 11-68 at 16%
• Joseph O'Brien last 14 days: 5-27 at 19%.

Handicapped to win or not

Ga Law's mark of 154 looks too high for him to win and the fact a 7lb rider is booked says as much, while Martator for the first lady was rated 151 last December and is now from 141.

Kim Roque is the complete unknown having raced to a good level around Autueil over 2m4f and in soft and his debut for the Joseph O'Brien yard came at Cheltenham last month in a novice race. This will be some test for a young horse and his jumping wasn't foot perfect either. Clearly an improver from 128 but he'd have to improve a lot.

The 1-2-3 Verdict

Well last week's 1-2-3 verdict got the second and third without the winner, but the victor I am hoping will be Vincenzo as I think he can improve again on his Paddy Power Gold Cup runner-up spot and is a pretty tough customer for one so young.

Jagwar is the class act but the stable isn't flying and it's his first run of the season so I want to keep him onside in terms of placing and Martator is very well treated and it could be that Venetia is running into some sort of form.

• 1) Vincenzo

• 2) Martator

• 3) Jagwar

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