Clarence House Chase Big Race Verdict: Back Thistle to cause Ascot shock

• For the latest Betfair Racing odds click here 

• Click here for more Betfair Racing predictions 

• Alan Dudman previews the Ascot Grade 1 in his latest Big Race Verdict 

---

Racing... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

---

Clarence House contenders - Ascot 15:30

Il Etait Temps - OR 172, Timeform Rating 185

Pounded Jonbon into second to win the Betfair Tingle Creek in December by nine lengths on good to soft ground, proving the drop back in distance was no hindrance as a previous winner over 2m5f at Clonmel by a massive 18 lengths.

Dedicated nostalgists will recall the last Wille Mullins winner in the Clarence House, it was the thrilling Un de Sceaux - who completed a hat-trick of victories from 2016 to 2018. Since then, Nicky Henderson has helped himself to three wins.

His superb victory in last tern's Barberstown Castle Novice Chase at Punchestown saw him claim the scalp of Gaelic Warrior, so the Emerald Invader has beaten some good ones already.

Jonbon - OR 166, Timeform Rating 179

The Tennyson poem "Morte d'Arthur" went thus - "The old order changeth, yielding place to new," and last year's Clarence House winner Jonbon faces a far tougher opponent than 12 months ago in Energumene.

Of course he swatted Energumene away with ease but since that race, his form despite the seconds has dipped 3lbs below his then rating, while the novice from Ireland's star is rising.

Jonbon is now approaching the veteran stage of his career and with 13 wins from 19 runs over fences with six seconds, he deserves to be lauded as a champion racehorse.

Thistle Ask - OR 158, Timeform Rating 173+

Thistle Ask is the Panic Attack mark II. He joined Dan Skelton in October and won on stable debut from 115, and going on to trounce opponents in Grade 3 and Grade 2 company.

Yes, you read that right, he was rated 115 a matter of months ago.

His Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase over the extended 17f was on good ground and he made the running - and was down in trip in the Kempton Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase on most latest start, a start he proved to be even better in with a 10 length beating of Saint Segal.

All four successes this term have been on good ground.

Gidleigh Park - OR 156. Timeform Rating 169

Boothill for Harry Fry tried in this race 12 months ago and is still running, and while Gidleigh Park has some fair form himself, his rating tells you he has plenty to find on form.

He'd be more of the natural stayer in the field with form over further but he was still speedy enough over 2m in the Fitzdares Lightning Novices' Chase last year at Wetherby. He's had just one run this term, and was nine lengths behind Jango Baie over 2m5f in the Ascot 1965 Chase and was no more than the mouse tracked by the cat in that.

---

Tactics for Saturday

In normal circumstances with a larger field a pace map would be required, but the service of the Ordnance Survey bods are not needed here as all cam force the pace and at least be up there.

Jonbon made the running 12 months ago and jumped A1 all the way around bar the third out, but two mighty leaps in the straight saw him full of speed in and out of the birch.

Il Etait Temps has two easy wins over Jonbon to his name with not only the Tingle Creek, but last term's Celebration Chase - with Paul Townend switching him off out the back to travel smoothly and I can see Townend allowing Jonbon and even Thistle Ask to go on.

Thistle Ask has form over further so any sort of pace tussle shouldn't stop or hinder his chances and with a tendency to jump out to his right, Ascot might bring out some more improvement. We've seen Panic Attack shoot up the ratings by about 500lbs this term, and who can say Thistle Ask won't do the same?

---

Trainer form

Willie Mullins: 14-40 at 35% last two weeks

Dan Skelton: 8-26 at 31%. Ascot record 14-26 11% last five seasons.

Harry Fry: 0-5 last two weeks. Ascot record 11-46 at 24% last five seasons.

Nicky Henderson: 3-8 at 38% last two weeks. Ascot record 23-103 last five seasons.

---

Clarence House Chase Verdict

I never like to get involved with the "How Far" markets as it is hard enough to try and unearth a winner, let alone how far, but there are plenty of options there to play with on the Sportsbook and the "To Win By 5L Or More" at 15/82.88 is perfectly acceptable as a bet.

Thistle Ask is the one we don't know about in terms of taking a horse of the calibre of Il Etait Temps. Jonbon has, twice in the last 12 months, and has been thumped, and while a "home match" here for Jonbon, I have a sneaking suspicion that Thistle Ask going right-handed on going that won't be hock deep might run well.

There is no option for each-way and the forecast reversed is negated by the price of the fav, so if there is to be a shock, Thistle Ask could provide it.

---

Now read the latest exclusive blog from Paul Nicholls here!

---