Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is in the bumper at Warwick

Our racing expert has one selection on Tuesday

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has a sole selection at Warwick.

Sets clear standard on last two runs

Warwick 17:20: Treefinch 1pt e/w 9/2

There's been early market support for a few runners in the bumper at Warwick. The huge prices about Minneigh Mozze were taken overnight which wasn't surprising given her breeding nor was it too surprising that debutant Solar Queen shortened given her connections. The significant shortener I didn't see coming was Gladys Eva Jane who was comfortably held in a very weak PTP bumper on debut so it may be a case that she has improved a lot at home since then.

These market moves have meant that Treefinch has drifted to an appealing price given the level of ability that she has already shown under rules. She was a bit disappointing on debut at Hereford but improved on that next time at Fakenham when finishing fourth behind Coin Basket and ran well again on her final start of the season at Bangor.

She was held up on the inside early on and was still in that position after a circuit. She was still travelling well in fifth turning the bend into the home straight but while the front two quickened on, she had to wait to be switched wide around two rivals in front of her. She ran on well late on but could never get into a position to challenge the winner and finished third.

The winner had previously contested the Grade 2 mares bumper at Aintree while the second had shown a good level of ability in two previous starts. Treefinch was poorly positioned given the fairly steady pace and had to be switched wide to get a clear run so that performance can be upgraded and she sets a good standard for the others to aim at.

It may turn out that at least one of the newcomers is above average and Gladys Eva Jayne has improved plenty since her debut but I think Treefinch is overpriced given the ability she has shown and any 4/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets


Staked: 258.50pts

Returned: 353.48pts

P/L: +94.98pts


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.