Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a winning pointer at Newbury

Rhys Williams
19 January 2022
2.00 min read

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Rhys Williams has had a winning NAP in three of the last four days and looks to continue the good run at Newbury.

"I think this will be a more suitable test for her than either of her starts under rules so far"

Can bounce back on first start for a new yard

Newbury 12:45: Victorias Peak 0.5pt e/w 40/1

Victorias Peak was well beaten in a bumper at Wincanton when last seen but I think she's significantly better than that performance suggests and can run well at a big price on hurdling debut today.

She started her career with Colin Bowe and showed a good level of ability in points, finishing a close second to Shirocco's Dream on her second start. The ground was very testing on her third start and she appeared to struggle on that but showed a good attitude to stay on to finish third behind Karlie. It was a fairly weak maiden that she won on her final start for Bowe but she did that with ease and appeared to be far more at home on the better ground.

Victorias Peak was bought to join Fergal O'Brien shortly after that and ran well in a bumper for him at Plumpton despite the track appearing unsuitable. She raced very prominently for the first circuit but had to be bumped along and briefly lost her place going away from the stands. She was back upsides the leader going down the back before being outpaced turning out of the back straight and dropping back to third. She rallied strongly under pressure in the closing stages to be beaten 2¾ lengths while finishing ten lengths clear of the third. While the winner of that race has disappointed since, the third had run to a good level on debut in a point and the fourth has shown a fairly good level of ability over hurdles since.

That was Victorias Peak's only start for Fergal O'Brien as she was moved to Tim Vaughan after that. She only had one run for Vaughan in a bumper at Wincanton on heavy ground and ran poorly but her point runs and action suggest she doesn't want deep ground so I think that can be excused.

She has been on the move again after that defeat and has now joined Milton Harris, which is a positive trainer switch. I think this will be a more suitable test for her than either of her starts under rules so far and if she can get back to the level she showed in points then she can be more competitive than her price suggests.

Although this is more suitable, I think she might ideally want a bit more of a test of stamina and has to show a competency for jumping hurdles but I think the market has overlooked her chance and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 17.50pts
Returned: 27.33pts
P/L: +9.83pts

RHYS’ ROI 2021: 28%

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