Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' 9/1 NAP is a stable switcher at Plumpton

Plumpton
Our racing expert has one selection on Monday

Our resident tipster has analysed Monday's racing and has a sole selection at Plumpton...

  • Returning to more suitable test

  • Last two runs more encouraging than form figures suggest

  • Le Ligerien is overpriced at Plumpton


Far more suitable test back under rules

Plumpton 14:00: Le Ligerien 1pt win 9/1

Back Le Ligerien in the 14:00 at Plumpton 1pt win

9/1

Le Ligerien has been pulled up on both starts this season but those were in 3m points and now back under rules over a more suitable trip, I think he's capable of bouncing back on his first start for Joe Tizzard.

On his first start this season in heavy ground at Ffos Las, he was held up before making headway towards the end of the back straight and moved into a share of third turning into the home straight. That progress continued as he went into second jumping 4 out but he soon had little left and was pulled up before 2 out.

He went to Chaddesley Corbett a couple of weeks later and again was held up before making progress going out on to the final circuit. He went into fifth halfway down the back straight and he was still in a share of fourth turning into the home straight before weakening quickly and being pulled up.

I think that run likely came soon enough after Ffos Las and that wouldn't have been a suitable track for him either given the emphasis it puts on stamina.

Le Ligerien has now had a break to freshen him up and has been given a wind op so it might be that there was another reason on top of the distance which was causing him to weaken so quickly late on in those two races. He's now back to a more suitable test of speed and can be ridden much handier as a result which I think will suit him and when last seen under rules in March last year he finished second off a 3lb higher mark.

His jumping will always be a concern as he can throw in a collection of mistakes on the way round but I think he's overpriced in a race where plenty have questions to answer and any 8/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 29.50pts

Returned: 22.90pts

P/L: -6.60pts

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