Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a maiden handicapper at Ayr

Ayr
Our racing expert has one selection on Monday

"Physically he looked the type to progress as a three-year-old and I think the step back up to seven furlongs should suit."

Rhys Williams has analysed Monday's racing and has a sole selection at a double-figure price at Ayr...

Caught the eye on multiple occasions last season

Ayr 16:00: Jkr Cobbler 1pt win 10/1

I'm expecting this maiden handicap to be at least fairly well run and that could set the race up nicely for the current outsider of the field, Jkr Cobbler.

He was green on debut at Newcastle when showing some ability and did so again next time at Hamilton when he was arguably travelling best two furlongs out before cutting out quite quickly under pressure.

It was no surprise that he was given a wind op after that and a tongue tie went on for the first time at Thirsk as he was stepped up to seven furlongs. He raced a bit keenly early on in midfield and was still going strongly three furlongs out. He could never put in a challenge to the leaders but kept going well enough to only be beaten 4¾ lengths while not being given a particularly hard ride.

Jkr Cobbler was stepped back in trip to six furlongs for his first start in a nursery at Ayr. Unlike on his previous three starts where he raced with plenty of enthusiasm, he wasn't travelling from an early stage and was pushed along in a slightly detached last at halfway. He had still only passed a couple of rivals with a furlong to go but finished strongly under only hands and heels to take eighth.

Physically he looked the type to progress as a three-year-old and I think the step back up to seven furlongs should suit. There is a potential concern that he could be too fresh early on but Madame Bonbon, Timbukone, Head Chef and Tadita Twitch are all possible leaders/very prominent racers so I'm hopeful this will be well run and that will not only help him settle but also give him a better chance to close from further back.

It might be that he will need the run on his first start of the season but he races off a 2lb lower mark than he did last time and I think he has more potential for progression than the market suggests. Any 8/1 or bigger appeals.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 123.50pts

Returned: 217.80pts

P/L: +94.30pts

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