Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Mountain can hit the heights at Newmarket for Rhys Williams' NAP

Newmarket
Our racing expert has one selection on Friday

"That was a strong novice race with three of the first four being previous winners who are now all rated 88+ and the runner up has been given a rating of 85."

Back Mountain Road in the 18:29 at Newmarket 1pt win at 17.016/1

Rhys Williams has analysed Friday's racing and has a sole selection at a double-figure price at Newmarket.

Poorly positioned in very slowly run race on debut

Newmarket 18:29: Mountain Road 1pt win 16/1

Judith and Al Nafir dominate the market in this novice race and while they set a good standard, I'm not sure they are as far clear of one of their rivals as the market suggests.

Mountain Road made his debut at Doncaster earlier this month and he shaped with promise having been poorly positioned given the very slow pace. He was dropped out in last from his wide draw, as seems to be standard with horses from this yard, and was still in that position turning into the home straight. He made a little headway before running on well inside the final furlong under only hands and heels to finish sixth, beaten 4¾ lengths.

He had no chance from that position given the pace and I think he did well to finish as close as he did, particularly as he wasn't given a remotely hard time. That was a strong novice race with three of the first four being previous winners who are now all rated 88+ and the runner up has been given a rating of 85.

I expect he will have a stronger pace to track this evening with Swashbuckler and Al Nafir likely to go on and he can also be ridden much closer to the leader in this very small field.

It may be that Al Nafir, who looked the type to improve at three, and Judith, who won with plenty in hand on debut, are a bit too good for Mountain Road but I think there's too much between that pair and him given the promise of the debut run and any 12/1 or bigger appeals.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 187.00pts

Returned: 267.85pts

P/L: +80.85pts

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