Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams' NAP is a juvenile hurdler at Newton Abbot

Newton Abbot
Our racing expert has one selection on Tuesday

"He moves like a horse who wants a longer trip and now he’s mentally maturing and settling better I think the switch to hurdling could be ideal for him."

Rhys Williams has analysed Tuesday's racing and has a sole selection at a double-figure price at Newton Abbot.

More potential to improve for switch to hurdling than most

Newton Abbot 17:45: Beerenberg 1pt win 11/1

Six horses line up for the juvenile hurdle at Newton Abbot and five of those are hurdling newcomers. Intriguing Lady is the only one to have run over hurdles so far and the only notable aspect of her debut was David Noonan's recovery at the first. She may prefer this flat track to Hexham but she looks a doubtful stayer at the moment.

Captain Square heads the market and is having his first start for Tom Lacey having been claimed for £12,000 after finishing second at Leicester last time. He should be fine over the trip if he doesn't race too keenly and he's shown a fair level of ability but there's very little of him so I'm not sure how much improvement there is to come and he doesn't strike me as an obvious type to go jumping.

Alphonse Le Grande is next in and he showed a similar level of ability to Captain Square on the flat. The concern over his chance is how poorly he ran last time and he's also quite small so there's a doubt over how much improvement there is to come from him.

It's no surprise that there's been market support for Hill Station on hurdling debut given his sire but there's no edge in the price anymore while Dicktate has the physique for jumping but has looked to lack any sort of pace on the flat so I'm not sure this sharp track will be ideal for him.

That leaves Beerenberg who I think is overpriced. He's only rated 56 on the flat but I think he was quite a mentally immature horse early in his career and he's settled better and shown more promise on his last two starts with a hood on.

At Wolverhampton he was dropped out in last from a wide draw and stayed on late without ever looking like challenging the winner to finish fourth. He raced handier in midfield at Chelmsford last time over 1m2f and again stayed on well while lacking the pace of the first two home.

He moves like a horse who wants a longer trip and now he's mentally maturing and settling better I think the switch to hurdling could be ideal for him and show him in a much better light than running on the all weather.

It was also encouraging that he wasn't dropped right out last time as hopefully that will mean they won't look to hold him up in last today, a position that often isn't ideal in early season juvenile hurdles given the quality of jumping that tends to be on show.

It may be that he lacks the class of a few of his rivals and there's the obvious unknown over how he will jump but this is a weak contest and he shouldn't be a double-figure price. Any 10/1 or bigger appeals.

Recommended bets

RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 188.00pts

Returned: 267.85pts

P/L: +79.85pts

GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.