Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Weld maiden to bloom at Dundalk

• Showed promise on both starts

• Weaker race than she's previously contested

• Florida Taiga is overpriced at Dundalk

Dropping into weaker company

Dundalk 16:30: Florida Taiga 1pt e/w 11/1

Florida Taiga was never in contention in two maidens in June and August but those were stronger races than the one she contests today and the promise she has shown suggests she can be competitive in this race.

She made her debut over a mile at Bellewstown where she was a bit slowly into stride and briefly had to be shaken along towards the back of the field. She was still travelling well turning the bend out of the back straight but once the pace quickened she was left behind by the leaders and looked green before making a bit of late headway to finish fifth.

It seemed a strange choice to drop her back in trip to seven furlongs for her next start at Gowran and she duly lacked the necessary pace but once again showed some ability. She raced a bit further back than midfield early on but got stuck on the inside as the pace slowed approaching the home straight and dropped back into a share of second last turning in.

She could never get competitive from that position but made some late headway to finish sixth despite having to be switched on a couple of occasions.

The winner of that race was subsequent Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner Victoria Road while the runner up had been beaten a nose at the Curragh on debut and the third has since been beaten a neck in a Listed race in America.

There's nothing of that quality taking on Florida Taiga today and I think she has the potential to improve back over a more suitable trip and now that she should be more mentally mature.

It is a bit worrying that she's had a 198-day break since that last run as that suggests she's had a problem and that could have a negative impact on her performance but I think the market has underestimated her chance and any 9/1 or bigger appeals.