Horse Racing Tips

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies blinkers to light up 40/1 longshot at Dundalk

Dundalk
Our racing expert has two selections on Friday

"Her dam won in first time blinkers and switching a hood for them could have even more of an impact than usual"

Rhys Williams has analysed Friday's racing and has two selections at Dundalk...

  • Recent promising runs from Ampeson at the track
  • Application on blinkers could help Classy Kate
  • Rhys Williams thinks Ampeson and Classy Kate are overpriced at Dundalk

Run well on both recent starts at Dundalk

Dundalk 18:00: Ampeson 1pt win 9/1

Rough Diamond heads the market for this six-furlong handicap but it's a horse who finished behind him over C&D in August who appeals at the prices.

Ampeson finished a length behind Rough Diamond that day but he ran very well from a wide draw and now faces that rival on 9lb better terms. Ampeson was stuck five wide in a line of horses at the back of the field turning out of the back straight before being restrained in behind them and saving a bit more ground while racing in last. He was pushed along entering the home straight and while never looking like winning, ran on strongly late on to finish sixth.

Ampeson returned to Dundalk for his latest start over seven furlongs and again shaped promisingly. He travelled well in midfield on the inside and looked to be going best when making headway behind the leaders 1½f out. He had to wait for a gap and went past his rival on the far side when that came but couldn't hold off the challenge of Smile Of Love.

The manner in which he travelled through that race suggests the drop back to six furlongs in a race where there's quite a bit of early pace could suit Ampeson and he has a much better draw in stall four than when finishing sixth over C&D three starts ago.

There is a slight concern that he can be a bit slowly away from the stalls and that could see him end up further back than ideal over this trip but I think the market is underestimating his chance and any 15/2 or bigger appeals.

First time blinkers could bring improvement

Dundalk 19:30: Classy Kate 1pt win 40/1

Classy Kate finished tailed off nine days ago at Navan but that race was over 1m6f in awful conditions and I think she could have a better chance than her big price suggests in a moderate race.

She wasn't competitive in any of her five starts in maidens but showed a bit of promise on handicap debut over a mile at Cork. She raced a bit keenly a few lengths behind the leaders early on but was short of room on a couple of occasions on the side of the track and dropped towards the back. She only had one rival behind her just over a furlong out before making a bit of late headway to finish twelfth, beaten around five lengths.

Classy Kate was stepped up to 1m2f and a hood put on for her next start at Navan. She raced on the inside in midfield before being pushed along early in the home straight. She was tightened up and short of room on a few occasions in the final 1½f but finished well when getting a clear run to be beaten around 4 lengths in twelfth.

She played up badly before the start and was beaten a long way out over 1m6f in heavy ground at Navan last time, a test that was clearly unsuitable for her.

I think the return to a mile will be a more suitable test for her and the application of blinkers for the first time could bring improvement. Her dam won in first time blinkers and switching a hood for them could have even more of an impact than usual having looked to switch off too much for the hood at Navan two starts ago.

It might be that Classy Kate is just paceless or that she will once again play up beforehand and that could have a negative impact on her performance but I think the market has overlooked her potential for improvement in a moderate race and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2022

Staked: 292.50pts

Returned: 427.76pts

P/L: +134.76pts

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.