York Ebor Festival Tips: Take a Chance on O'Meara's gelding impressing again on the Knavesmire

It must be great being a BHA handicapper. 
 
And, if you are the top dog, you get the best part of a month to do the Grand National weights,  have even the most senior and self-confident of trainers kow-towing to you on a daily basis, and generally tower over the sport, wielding the power to make or break any horse in the land with the wave of his harsh rating wand.
 
Some handicappers are more amenable and approachable than others, by all accounts, and have even been known to err on the side of leniency when a trainer is just 1lb or 2lb shy when trying to squeeze his horse into the band-width of that targeted race.
 
Like Mass Rally here at York yesterday, though it might be best not to go there, methinks...
 
It looks like David O'Meara could be on good terms with the master of all he surveys at the 1m2f-1m4f distance, as his Chancery has been given a massive chance by the handicapper as he bids to follow up his emphatic win in this race last year - he only races off a 3lb higher mark despite running a career-best three starts ago - and is expected take full advantage in the 13:55.
  
On a more serious note, it is pretty mystifying why he has been dropped 6lb on the back of his last two runs.
 
Granted, he has been beaten just shy of 10 lengths on both occasions but some horses can wait the best part of a season before being shown such leniency, and it isn't as if he showed nothing last time.
 
Far from it in fact, as a couple of studies of the video shows that he stayed on nicely under a hands-and-heels ride from the rear, as they say, over 1m2f at Haydock last time, indicating that he will be well suited by a return to 1m4f.
 
And that was also the impression he gave when he finished a staying-on fifth in the highly-competitive John Smith's Cup here last month.
 
He clearly loves it here - aside from that fifth, and his win in this race last season, he also bolted up on the Knavesmire last July - is very well-handicapped, and has everything in his favour. 
 
Back him with confidence at odds of 13.012/1 or better - he is my bet of the week at the current price.
 
It is clearly a very competitive race and there are a few more unexposed horses than the selection in here. And I am concerned about Stomachion chinning us after his eye-catching run at Goodwood, but I'm happy to stand alone with Chancery, who looks to have been laid out for this once again.
 
With the kind assistance from BHA HQ, obviously.
 
If you are going to have a bet in the Lonsdale Cup, then I suggest you read Ryan's Moore column on this betting.betfair site, which went live earlier at 17:30pm, before doing so.
 
Estimate would have been something like a 7-4 favourite here if coming directly from her excellent second to Leading Light in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot, where subsequent Goodwood winner Missunited was a short head away in third, the trio pulling four-and-a-half lengths clear of Brown Panther.
 
But she disappointed badly when last of eight behind Cavalryman in the Goodwood Cup last time, when initially connections thought the track was solely to blame. But, as Moore reveals in his Betfair column, another reason was found subsequently.
 
I can see her challenging for favouritism so she rates a bet at 5.04/1 or bigger in the 14:30 on price grounds alone. Act fast.
 
You can basically give all the runners some sort of chance in a very tight 7f listed race at 15:05 but I am drawn to Windfast at the price.
 
He didn't really get the run of the race when a decent fourth in a Group 3 at Goodwood last time but he looked like a non-stayer over 1m there anyway, and he had earlier run a decent race over this trip when fourth in the Jersey. 
 
He is more unexposed than a lot of these in here and doesn't look a 15.014/1 chance to me.
 
If it is riding on the fast side coming race-time then Sole Power must rate a worthy favourite in the Nunthorpe at 15:40 but I have to stay faithful with Take Cover, who did us a good turn when winning the King George at Goodwood.
 
Many people thought that the placed horses were unlucky there - neck runner-up Extortionist drifting across the track and Moviesta finishing a short-head away in third in the centre of the track - but I am confident that the winner had a lot more in hand were it required.
 
That form still leaves him with 7lb or so to find with Sole Power and French speedster Rangali but the progressive course and distance winner Take Cover can improve past them.
 
Back him at odds of 9.08/1 or better.

Recommended Bets 
Back Chancery @ 13.012/1 or better in the 13:55  
Back Estimate @ 5.04/1 or better in the 14:30  
Back Windfast @ 15.014/1 or better in the 15:05 
Back Take Cover @ 9.08/1 or better in the 15:40