"But something about this horse convinces me that he has the potential to make his presence felt in a much higher grade than this. And if his jumping passes the test, then I think that the course winner and thorough stayer, could outclass these from two out."
After Sam Winner did the honours at 10.09/1 for Tony Calvin on Saturday our man is back with three more selections at decent odds on the final day of Cheltenham's Open meeting...
If you have found yourself standing next to Philip Hobbs in a racecourse toilet this season, then your eyes are probably still suffering from the glare.
And I don't mean the glare from the trainer if he caught you having a quick glance over the urinal wall, more the fact even "Golden Balls" Beckham in his prime wouldn't ever have been in better form than old Hobbsy is at the moment.
And if his cojones aren't exactly golden at the moment, then I'll wager owner Diana Whateley thinks the sun currently shines out of his derriere after important wins for her Menorah and Wishfull Thinking this season, not to mention the stable's treble here on Friday.
And I think Hobbs and Whateley could have another big-race winner on their hands in the shape of Garde La Victoire in the Greatwood Hurdle at 15:15.
He rates a decent bet at odds of 19.537/2.
Similar comments apply to that of Buywise in Friday's column, in that his jumping could be a touch too suspect for a race of this nature, though I am pretty sure that he is a lot better than his current mark of 144 in terms of raw ability. And the price factors in the jumping doubts.
I thought that he was going to sluice up on his reappearance at Aintree - as did his in-running supporters, as he was backed at a low of 1.330/100 - only for poor jumps at the final two flights to check his progress at crucial stages.
And to add a slap after the rejection, the handicapper put him up 4lb, too.
But something about this horse convinces me that he has the potential to make his presence felt in a much higher grade than this. And if his jumping passes the test, then I think that the course winner and thorough stayer, could outclass these from two out.
I am not going to play in the race without having a saver on Exitas at 8.88/1, so I have to put him up here too.
Simply put, if a Henderson or a Nicholls were training a horse running under just a 5lb penalty for a runaway eight length win at Sandown last week, then we would be talking 4-1 and not 8-1.
He is officially 9lb well in here, and there is a reason why he has suddenly improved out of all recognition. He was apparently a "chronic bleeder" until his trainer sorted that issue out, and we know that he will handle the testing conditions, has won after a quick turnaround before and Charlie Deutsch, currently operating at a 20% strike rate, looks fair value for his 5lb claim.
He looks rock solid.
Personally, I tend to find that small field condition races don't lend themselves to decent punting opportunities, so I am really struggling in the other three C4 races, none of which feature eight runners.
The novices' hurdle at 13:35 looks very difficult to call but I do know that the Paul Nicholls yard think they have a real good one on their hands in Emerging Talent, who has so much natural speed and exuberance that he should be well suited by the step back to the minimum trip.
But I can't get over-enthused at the current price, with so many other unexposed sorts in opposition.
And the same is pretty much true of the novices' chase at 14:10, where I wouldn't be in a rush to dismiss any of the sextet.
And the six-runner Shloer Chase at 14:40 isn't any easier, so I will be look at the non-C4 races for other bets at Cheltenham.
I think there could be some mileage in Triumphant in the opener at 13:00.
Backing horses that are creeping up the handicap on the back of placed efforts don't usually float my boat but I thought Triumphant ran a cracker at Fontwell last time considering he had been raised a very harsh 8lb for an earlier second at Huntingdon.
He may not have progressed as much over hurdles as Gary Moore would have hoped - the horse is rated 99 on the Flat and finished a good third at Goodwood in September - but he is going the right way.
And the Fontwell form was franked when the fourth bolted up at Sandown last week, and jockey George Gorman, who won on the stable's Tothemoonandback earlier in the week, can claim a very handy 8lb.
In short, he looks to have solid claims in a very open race and odds of 15.014/1 and bigger look fair.
I'll let you sort the bumper out!
Good luck punting today.
Recommended Bets
Back Garde La Victoire @ 19.537/2 15:15 at Cheltenham
Back Exitas @ 8.88/1 15:15 at Cheltenham
Back Triumphant @ 15.014/1 or bigger 13:00 at Cheltenham