Saturday Racing Tips: Take a chance on Havana not getting Beat in the Ces

Havana Beat looks to have been primed for the Cesarewitch all season and an unfavourable draw in 35 is not going to deter me from backing him.

Betting is all about risk and reward, and the fact that the selection has drifted out to 36.035/1 and bigger on the back of being handed that car park berth is adequate compensation.

Yes, I would have rather he had been drawn in single figures, but that is why we are getting inflated odds. Remember, this horse was steadily backed throughout the week and whose last-traded price in Betfair's ante-post market, suspended at 10am on Thursday morning, was 24.023/1.

So why was he backed?

It certainly wasn't because of his solid form claims this season, even though he has given the odd glimpse that the 2015 fires may still be smouldering - notably York in August, and to a lesser extent on unfavourable soft ground at Ffos Las last time - and ready to ignite once again.

And we come back to the above trade-off again. Of course, he hasn't been in A1 form this season but that is why he has dropped to a mark of just 94 from a mid-summer high of 112 last year.

Go back and have a look at his Yorkshire Cup third, or when he was beaten just 5 ½ lengths in the Gold Cup - he looked dangerous rounding the turn at Ascot - and you have to be interested in him off 94.

I may be wide of the mark here but I think his owner Tony Bloom is only interested in big valuable handicap pots, as he has proven with he and Dean Ivory's expert placing of Librisa Breeze this season, and it would come as no surprise if this has been the plan since he was acquired this year when rated 105.

Of course, the draw is a negative but it isn't insurmountable if you have the horse, as Never Can Tell showed when winning from 36 in 2011.

Expect to hear that horse's name a lot in the next 24 hours when people like me cling to that lifeline!

Plenty of other well-fancied horses have been dealt a bad hand with the draw, notably the favourite St Michel in 32, and the best handicapped animal in the field, Sweet Selection, is in 23.

I think Sweet Selection should be favourite and she rates a saver at 10.09/1, as the case for her is powerful.

She is the small matter of 17lb well-in here after her Doncaster run last time, on which she is weighted to beat St Michel, and she is a thorough grinder, as she showed when beating Sea Of Heaven over 2m2f at Newbury in July, pulling clear late on.

I think she will be very hard to kick out of the first five or six, at worst, if you are an each-way player.

***

Churchill will be hard to kick out of the winner's spot in the Dewhurst as he looked a horse on the way to the top when winning the National Stakes by daylight last time.

At around the 8-11 mark, he is one for the bleedin' obvious, though.

I rate the chances of Lockheed in the Autumn Stakes at 14:55 as I thought he shaped as though he wanted the extra furlong when third to Churchill at the Curragh. But his price simply reflects his claims.

If Amabilis had come here straight from her first two outings - yes, I know she couldn't have, but give me some leeway here - then she would be a very short price for the nursery at 14:20 off a mark of 85. She chased home two fillies who have gone on to finish placed in Group 1 company.

Her last two starts have been disappointing in the light of that early promise, but if she can return to that kind of form then she could leave this field for dead. But I can live without a bet.

***

Over to York, where we have three races to get stuck into.

We can deal with one of those pretty quickly, as the 2yo Listed race over 6f at 15:10 looks too tricky for me.

Perfect Angel posted a decent time when second to the smart Harry's Angel in the Mill Reef, but they will be worried about the fast ground - even though the track got a small amount of rain on Friday morning - as they blamed her Salisbury disappointment on the going being too fast, and that was officially good.

Lost At Sea has to be a big danger on the evidence of his debut defeat of Dream Of Dreams - and Middle Park disappointment Silver Line would probably be the one to beat at his best - but I struggle to get a handle on juvenile conditions races in general, and I have learned to live with it, and without them as betting mediums on the whole.

***

I was sorely tempted to put up Fattsota in the 14:35 because he looked on the way back when second at Pontefract last time. The winner dotted up by 8 lengths but he was an unexposed Godolphin horse coming back off a long break (and he was entered in a Group 3 at Newmarket on Saturday) and was clearly thrown in.

That signalled a welcome return to form for the second, who was beaten only a head in this race off a 3lb higher mark in 2014 - he has actually fallen to 97 from a career-high 112 in April 2015 - and he is now handicapped to win races.

The problem is that all his best form is when he leads and that may not happen here with prominent racers Lord Ben Stack and Dolphin Vista in the line-up. I was going to give him a miss but at the prices - and odds dictates bets, not what you fancy or else we would all be tipping and backing favourites race-in, race-out - I have to take my chances.

Back him at 26.025/1 or bigger.

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The issue I have with the 6f handicap at 15:45 - if it is an issue - is that I am a big fan of Captain Colby, and the market was never going to underestimate him.

We were with him in the Portland last time after a good third over 5f89yd here in August, when he did very well to finish so close given that he was drawn badly.

He powered home to win impressively at Doncaster and I think a 6lb rise won't be enough to stop him, especially as this slightly longer trip of 6f will suit him too, as will the fast ground.

I think he is much the likeliest winner, and he is a rare favourite bet for me at 6.05/1 or bigger.

If there is an outsider of interest it is Orvar on his first start for Robert Cowell. He hasn't raced since May , and he makes his handicap debut off a mark of 96, 4lb lower than he started the season for Richard Hannon.

His two efforts in Group 3 and Listed company earlier this season are nothing to write home about but he is well-treated on his juvenile form, and his stable had a much welcomed winner recently after a very lean spell.

However, I think Captain Colby has the potential to sluice up here.

Recommended Bets

Back Fattsota at 26.025/1 in the 14:35 at York
Back Captain Colby at 6.05/1 in the 15:45 at York
Back Havana Beat at 36.035/1 or bigger in the 16:10 at Newmarket
Back Sweet Selection at 10.09/1 in the 16:10 at Newmarket

Remember Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls is back with his Saturday Runners preview this weekend