Saturday Racing Tips: Little Jon set for a big run at Newbury

Little Jon can go very close at Newbury

Little Jon is going to be a very happy bunny indeed when he walks out on to the track on Saturday afternoon and doesn't find himself looking up at Cleeve Hill, and he should be backed at 10.09/1 or better to win the Greatwood Gold Cup at 15:25.

Although the selection has run some fair races at the track - most obviously when sixth to Irish Cavalier at the Festival despite taking a couple of fences with him, and when third in an Arkle trial - it is clear that his suspect jumping is not really suited to the Cheltenham challenge.

However, if he does come back to the form that he showed when winning over course and distance in November, and by that I also mean jumping as well as he did that day too, then I'll be surprised if he is out of the front three here at worst.

The handicapper has not been overly-generous by refusing to drop him for two pretty woeful recent efforts at Cheltenham but, against that, at least the assessor hasn't gone back and looked in more detail at the Newbury win as he may have added to the initial 6lb rise, if he had.

That November win has worked out pretty well. The runner-up has not run since but the third Top Gamble has run two stormers, including when beating Dodging Bullets in the Game Spirit here last month, and the fifth Royal Regatta beat the subsequent Thyestes runner-up Mala Beach by 11 lengths on his next start.

There are five or so in here who like to force the pace, of which Little Jon is one, but hopefully Wayne Hutchinson will be content to take an early lead if necessary, just as Jamie Bargary did here in November.

If Little Jon jumps even adequately, then he is handicapped to go very close.

There is a certain amount of a guessing element to this race - yes, more than usual - with the presence of the two Emmanuel Clayeux horses over from France, Pythagore and Vicomte Du Seuil.

They are prolific winners but, basically, I haven't got a clue if they are thrown in, or harshly treated, and I'll happy leave that attempted analysis to others and ignore them for tipping and betting purposes. If either win, I'll shrug my shoulders and move on.

Others with more fathomable claims include the in-form Bennys Mist, runner-up in this race last year, and Art Mauresque, who will be happy if the ground dries out. The latter's trainer, who also has Sametegal in the race, has won seven of the last ten runnings of the race, including with a certain Pacha Du Polder...

But the one I really fear is Laser Hawk at the bottom of the weights, and I'll have a few quid on him as well at 17.016/1.

He was off the track for the best part of a year after making all to win a maiden hurdle here by two-and-three-quarter lengths from Beast Of Burden in December 2014, and the runner-up went on to be rated 143 after winning his next two starts.

It is fair to say that you would have expected more of him in three chase starts at the minimum trip this season, but the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of just 127 and I think the step up in distance will suit this three-time point winner.

Certainly, he looks well very handicapped on his hurdles form, and he didn't run too badly on very heavy ground at Taunton last time. The going will be far less testing at Newbury - even if rain is forecast on Saturday - and, as with Little Jon, I hope that his jockey is content to take a pull if there is an early burn-up.

Olofi and Same Difference look promising...

If Little Jon doesn't like Cheltenham, then the same certainly isn't true of Olofi, who has run some of his best races at the track. But he also finished fifth in a Betfair Hurdle here and he rates an interest at 11.010/1 in the veterans' handicap hurdle at 13:45.

He has been dropped 10lb this season, and 3lb since his last run, and he showed enough in his latest outing at Cheltenham that he is ready to win again. The trip is the question mark but a patient ride on hopefully not too testing ground - and he is delivered late anyway - could see him get away with it. And he does have the odd bit of form at this trip, too.

Same Difference also rates a bet at 8.07/1 or bigger in the veterans' handicap chase at 14:15. He was a talented staying chaser in 2013 when trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, winning the Kim Muir and then finishing second in the bet365 Gold Cup off a mark of 144.

He was backed into 2-1 favouritism on his debut for Warren Greatrex after a lengthy absence at Taunton last month, but failed to make any impact on the heavy ground and was pulled up.

Conditions won't be as testing here - which will suit as his best form has come on good to soft ground, so the less rain the better - so I am happy to give him another chance off a mark of 130.

Rain and snow mean Doncaster is best avoided

My only bet on the Doncaster card was going to be Ikorodu Road in the Grimthorpe at 15:45. But then the rain came on Thursday night, and I have to go no bet now, even with the field cutting up to just eight runners.

I backed Ikorodu Road last time out in the Sky Bet Chase and he disappointed me in fifth, but in his defence the race was run in atrocious conditions and it was a strange contest too, with several disappointing. Forgive him that run and we know that this 13-year-old is well suited to this track and he is on a fair mark, too.

But the rain (and snow) over the past 24 hours has scuppered my interest, even if the small field could be in his favour and he does have form in soft ground. A reluctant pass.

Recommended Bets

Back Olofi at 11.010/1 in the 13:45 at Newbury
Back Some Difference at 8.07/1 in the 14:15 at Newbury
Back Little Jon at 10.09/1 in the 15:25 at Newbury
Back Laser Hawk at 17.016/1 in the 15:25 at Newbury