Saturday Racing Tips: Kirk can leave us beaming with a Newbury winner

Everyone tends to chuckle when I say that my favourite trainer of 2yos, from a punting point of view at least, is Sylvester Kirk. 
 
I let them have their fun - if they had said "Beam Me Up, Calvin", I would have decked them, though, because that would be just plain unfunny - and I may just have the last laugh over the doubters again today as I fancy his Carry On Deryck to win what used to the Washington Singer Stakes at 14:05 at Newbury.
 
Now four-runner races are not normally my bag, but with a Kirk juvenile having its second start I will make an exception. 
 
Simply put, I have made good money down the years backing his 2yos second time up, with Percy Veer the latest candidate to do me a favour at a big price when winning at 16-1 at Brighton last week.
 
And how I remember the likes of Norse Blues winning second time up at Newbury at 50-1 in 2010, and Claude Greenwood at 33-1 at Wolverhampton two years later, both considerably bigger on the good ship Betfair. 
 
Happy days. 
 
Annoyingly, he has had two big-priced debut 2yo winners this season too, and one of them came in the impressive shape of Come On Deryck in the race here last month in which his Galago, having his second start, finished a close third at 16-1 carrying my cash - thankfully win and place - against the beaten 1-4 favourite.
 
Kirk's juveniles invariably improve a ton for their debuts so for the selection to win so impressively here first time up over 6f, quickening up like a really good horse from an unpromising position - his Betfair SP was 197.0196/1 and he hit the magical 1000.0999/1 in-running - is massively encouraging.
 
Being by Halling, he is bred to be much better suited by today's extra furlong - and his run-style indicated likewise - and he can silence the chucklers here by taking this listed prize. 
 
Obviously he has a lot to find form-wise, but given the above, his potential and his price, back the outsider of four at odds of 15.014/1 or bigger.
 
You could be beaming after the race. It's ok, I've just hit myself for you.
 
Es Que Love did us a massive favour when winning at Glorious Goodwood but I can't find a bet at the prices in the 15:50. If I was playing I would probably side with Chil The Kite, but no bet for me as it stands.
 
And similar comments apply to the Geoffrey Freer at 14:40. Or I thought they did until the market began to form.
 
Unlike Es Que Love, Somewhat let us down when only finishing a close-up third in the Gordon Stakes, and many people will be surprised that he is being upped in trip here, and not reverting back to the 1m2f in which he finished a 100-1 third in the Eclipse.
 
But I am not shocked at all, as I think Joe Fanning should have made it a sterner test of stamina from the front at Goodwood, and this extended 1m5f could well suit. 
 
Back him at odds of 8.07/1 or bigger. I expected the 3yo, un-penalised and getting a lot of weight, to be a fair bit shorter than that.
 
For my other bet at Newbury I am going with Kinglami in the 7f handicap at 15:15.
 
Brian Gubby will forever hold a place in my heartless heart after his Pal Of The Cat snapped a long losing - and confidence-sapping - tipping run for me at Glorious Goodwood last year when winning at 20-1 (40.039/1 odd on Betfair, thanks layers) by a short head. 
 
One of the reasons that I fancied that horse was because Gubby slapped a tongue-tie and cheekpieces on that horse for the first time, and he has now reached for blinkers for Kinglami.
 
If that improves the horse ever so slightly he must have a big chance, as he has been running really well all season, and the step up to 7f after a staying-on seventh over 6f at Goodwood last time will suit.
 
Back him at odds of 13.012/1 or bigger.
 
Out Do and Tatlisu are my two against the field in Ripon's Great St Wilfrid at 15:30 but I will just stick with the former for tipping purposes.
 
The mutability of the weather is a concern for punters on Saturday, so Tatlisu would arguably be a safer conveyance nearly 24 hours before the race, given that his record proves that he goes on any ground, soft or firm, and comes here at the top of his form. 
 
So any significant rainfall wouldn't affect his chances, whereas a glance at Out Do's form initially strongly suggests that he is best on a sound surface.
 
Delve a bit deeper though, and that may not necessarily be the case. Sure, his best figures have come on good or better ground, but he ran an eye-catchingly good race when ninth at York in the soft back in May.
 
He was pretty badly checked 1f out there and allowed to come home in his own time thereafter, but he was only beaten just over five lengths, finishing with plenty left in the tank.
 
Strictly on the book that is one of his poorer efforts this season, but that at least gives me encouragement that he will handle soft ground, if required, and he has a big chance on his Hamilton and York runs last month.
 
He was slightly disappointing when third over course and distance last time, but he wasn't suited by making his effort on the outside there. And David O'Meara, who won this race with Pepper Lane in 2011 and 2012, clearly thinks a first-time visor will help him too, and that is good enough for me.
 
I think Flying Bear is handicapped to win the 14:55 at Newmarket, as by splitting the strongly-fancied pair of Online Alexander and Peterkin he ran a career-best at Goodwood, and he can race off the same mark here (well, effectively 1lb higher as he is out of the handicap).
 
A hallmark of that run was how well he reacted, and travelled, in the first-time blinkers.
 
But I am loathe to put him up as a selection at this stage as soft ground would be a concern after Thursday's deluge turned it very testing and an unsettled weather forecast, to boot. Indeed, connections are currently undecided if he will take his chance on the ground.
 
If it isn't too soft come race-time, I will be backing him, and I suggest you do too. So keep an eye on the Newmarket weather before pouncing.
 
I am claiming him as a winner if he does run, and win!
 
Baby Strange also has a lot going for him in the greys' race at 14:20 and is worth a small wager at 8.07/1 or better.
 
He is no spring chicken at 10yo but he is now 6lb lower than when beaten a head and a short head into third in this race last season, ran well enough at Epsom last time - though the two month break since does worry me a bit, hence the small stakes - and his connections will have loved to see it sluicing down on Thursday as he wants plenty of cut.
 
I nearly put up Persun in the nursery at 13:50 too, but decided I had already fired enough bullets. 
 
A 3lb rise for her course and distance second to Azraff last week is more than fair - the winner is well-regarded and was chucked in, and she pulled three lengths clear of the third - and 3lb claimer Charles Bishop has impressed me this season.
 
The horse may lack the sexy winning profile of some in here, but the winner of this may have to get down and dirty in these conditions, and Persun fits the bill. I won't put her up as a bet but I certainly wouldn't put you off backing her at double-figure prices.
 
Over and out.

Recommended Bets
Back Carry On Deryck  @ 15.014/1 or bigger in the 14:05 at Newbury
Back Baby Strange @ 10.09/1 or better in the 14:20 at Newmarket 
Back Somewhat @ 8.07/1 or bigger in the 14:40 at Newbury 
Back Flying Bear @ 13.012/1 in the 14:55 at Newmarket (if the going isn't too soft) 
Back Kinglami @ 11.010/1 or bigger in the 15:15
Back Out Do @ 13.012/1 in the 15:30 at Ripon