After a stunning 20/1 winner in the shape of Lord Landen at Cheltenham on Friday, racing tipster Tony Calvin is back with three tips for Saturday's racing at Cheltenham and Doncaster...
Keep a close eye on the weather if you are betting on Saturday's C4 fixtures at Cheltenham and Doncaster - particularly the latter, where it is currently good to soft but plenty of rain is forecast - and, even without that headache, it is a pretty difficult punting weekend, in truth.
The main betting race of the day is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at 13:50, and as you'd expect for a £100,000 race it is very competitive with several possible winners. But it has attracted only 15 runners, so it is more of a win-only, than an each way, race now with only three places up for grabs.
I put up Little Jon at 12-1 each way on Tuesday and he remains a decent bet at 12.011/1, but I am going to go in two-handed courtesy of Doctor Phoenix at 18.017/1.
He has proved a revelation since switching to 2m over fences, as he travelled and jumped superbly in winning at Lingfield and Haydock. And the latter victory arguably entitles to a couple more pounds than his handicap mark of 141.
I would have personally been tempted to keep him at the minimum trip while the ground continues to ride soft, but they clearly feel he is worth a shot at this distance for such a valuable prize, and it could come off.
After all, he proved he gets this trip really well over hurdles last season, when he beat the decent Yala Enki over 2m4f in the mud at Uttoxeter.
This could easily be a step too soon for him after chase wins in small fields, but if there is a horse in here with 7lb in hand, it is this progressive 7yo and he is worth chancing at 16-1.
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In the other C4 races on the card, bets are thin on the ground. I think Unowhatimeanharry will take the step up in class in his stride in the 14:25, but it is a poor turn-out for such a prize and I'm telling you nothing you didn't already know yourself.
I put up Old Guard at 33-1 each-way for the Champion Hurdle after his Greatwood Hurdle win so I am fascinated to see how the fast-progressing 4yo copes with the likes of Peace And Co and Hargam in the International Hurdle at 15:00.
Peace And Co is the horse that many expect to put it up to Faugheen this season, so if Old Guard wins - or even manages to shake him up - then we are business. But no bet today, just a watch-and-hope race.
Blue Buttons will be one relieved mare when she pops out on course for the 15:35 and finds that she is jumping hurdles.
Even though she won a point to point, she is a tiny soul and I seem to recall an all-time classic quote from her trainer - if I have made it up, I apologise - after an unsuccessful chasing debut at Wincanton last month.
It went along the lines that she 'didn't enjoy the chasing experience because she couldn't see over the fences'!
So back over the smaller obstacles that she had earlier won so impressively over 2m at Wetherby on her return, I reckon she has definite chances off a mark of 137 here. She clearly gets this longer trip well, testing ground is ideal and she could still be improving over hurdles.
Back her at 8.07/1 or better.
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At Doncaster, the Juvenile Hurdle at 14:05, and Grade 2 novice chase at 14:40, don't make a great of appeal from a betting point of view.
The handicap hurdle at 15:15 is far more enticing - and should be on Channel 4, so I am tipping in the race - and I am going to put up Pearl Castle and hope that the course doesn't get the forecast deluge on Saturday. With that in mind, this has to be a small-stakes play, as it stands.
Pearl Castle has done all his winning on the flat and over hurdles, which include two course and distance wins, on decent ground. So the current good to soft going description is perfect for him.
And everything else looks in place for a big run, too.
He is very fairly treated off a mark of 137 on his best form and has in fact been dropped 2lb since his last run over hurdles in the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April, and has been in decent form on the flat subsequently.
He actually ran a fine race when seventh of 22 in the November handicap last time considering he would have hated the heavy ground and he probably boasted a career-best on the flat when just touched off by the progressive (and subsequent winner) Nakeeta off a mark of 89 at Haydock in September.
Up your stakes on him if Doncaster doesn't get the level of rain they are forecast - and, let's face it, Aintree somehow missed a monsoon there last week.
Ifandbuywhynot is feared but he tends to need his first run of the season, while I think there could be more to come from Boss Des Mottes. The latter rates a big threat.
Good luck.
Recommended Bets
Back Doctor Phoenix at 18.017/1 in the 13:50 at Cheltenham
Back Pearl Castle at 11.010/1 in the 15:15 at Doncaster
Back Blue Buttons at 8.07/1 in the 15:35 at Cheltenham
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