Newmarket July Meeting Tips: Bragging worth shouting from the rooftops about

In yesterday's column, we fired a couple of gentle shots across the bookmakers' bow, but today 'unleash hell' would be more appropriate, as I fancy three horses pretty strongly at the prices and will be betting accordingly. Well, if it doesn't turn into a bog anyway.
 
Deeds Not Words, and not just Bragging, then?
 
Well, actually both. Read on...(I'll now have to preface this by saying that if it continues to rain, I will be lessening my stakes accordingly, as soft ground literally does muddy the betting waters for me).

Newmarket 14:40 - Bragging

The Sir Michael Stoute pair of Provenance and Bragging are looking to bounce back from short-priced defeats on their handicap debuts last time.
 
There is little doubt that Provenance has the 'sexier' profile, being a Galileo half-sister to Integral, and she is expected to run a lot better provided there is not a lot more rain overnight and tomorrow, as the softened ground was blamed for her Sandown defeat last time.
 
But I am going to side with Bragging, who is thought to be a lot better than she showed at Nottingham last time. 
 
Again, the soft ground could possibly be blamed for the Nottingham defeat, though it didn't help that the two-length winner, unexposed having won a claimer by 14 lengths the time before, was given an easy time of it from the front there.
 
So, in the circumstances, Bragging ran a very fair race, especially as Doyle wasn't at all hard on her in the ground and they pulled eight engths clear of the third. 
 
Indeed, the handicapper upped her 5lb for that run, so maybe we shouldn't be too downbeat by the run.
 
She had hinted at a lot more to come when a convincing winner of a 1m Windsor maiden on fast ground in May, the form of which is working out really well.
 
The runner-up scored at Newbury next time from a subsequent winner, the third won a Doncaster maiden last month, and the fifth dotted up at Lingfield on Tuesday.
 
In short, even a revised mark of 87 looks to underplay her potential - the more you look at the video of the Windsor win, the more you think that she could be a listed filly - and she rates a decent bet at odds of 11.010/1 or better.
 
A strongly-run 7f should be ideal for her, and she will get a good tow into the race, as she is drawn next to front-runner Little Shambles.
 
Ideally, she doesn't want too much more rain before race-time but, whatever happens, it hopefully won't be anywhere near as soft as at Nottingham, and she handled it well enough there anyway, so maybe ground isn't a big issue.
 
Newmarket 14:20 - Arabian Queen

I was very surprised to see Arabian Queen available to back at 7.06/1 in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes,even with the rain arriving on Thursday. 
 
The reason for that, of course, is the presence of the mighty Andre Fabre's impressive Chantilly winner High Celebrity. And when he brings one over, they have to be respected - he is two from four here this season, including a Classic, and is running at a 33% strike in the past years.
 
But Arabian Queen has so much going for her that I have to take that short-priced favourite on.
 
She ran a blinder to finish sixth from the worst draw in the Queen Mary - that probably makes her the form pick in here for starters - and is bred to get every yard of this 6f. Indeed, being by Dubawi and out of the stable's Lancashire Oaks winner Barshiba, she should positively thrive for it. Soft ground would concern me, but her dam did handle cut, even if she was best on fast ground.

Turning attention to the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at 14:40, where there is a lot of stable confidence behind favourite Integral, and this is one favourite I wouldn't be in a rush to oppose, even in softish ground.
 
But there could be some mileage in looking at the "without favourite" markets when they are up and running tomorrow, and siding with Kiyoshi. Especially if there is even more rain.
 
She wasn't given a hard time of it on her reappearance behind Rizeena in the slowly-run Coronation, but she was a serious tool as a juvenile, and any significant ease in the ground could make her interesting.

Newmarket 15:15 - Deeds Not Words
 
We obviously can't put her up a bet, but I am going to throw a few quid at Deeds Not Words at odds of 34.033/1 or bigger in the 15:15, even though he would like the ground as fast as possible. 
 
The case for him is simple, in that he has been dropped 2lb from what I thought was a very promising run when seventh here to Extortionist over 5f last time.
 
The only two horses to have come out of that race since have both won - the winner and the sixth Royal Seal - and Deeds Not Words was not helped at all from racing widest there. But he finished to good effect on the outside to be beaten little over three lengths.
 
Back up to 6f from a falling handicap mark, he is no 33/1 plus here, trust me. 
 
In fact, I'll be having a decent bet on him if the ground is no worse than good to soft come race-time.
 
Honest.

Recommended Bets
Back Arabian Queen in the 14:20 at Newmarket at 7.06/1 or better
Back Bragging in the 14:40 at Newmarket at 11.010/1 or better
Back Deeds Not Words in the 15:15 at Newmarket at 34.033/1 or better