Glorious Goodwood Tips: Give Ninjago one last chance under substitute Moore

The market looks to have finally given up on Ninjago in the 32Red Cup at 15:50, but the price has reeled me in yet again.

Talking of being reeled in, there is a poker saying that if you can't find the fish - the "fish" being the mug - in the first 10 minutes at the table, then it is you.

So wait 10 minutes, and then back him at 20.019/1 or bigger.

Bookmakers love these "cliff" horses as much as they cherish their FOBT action, and I have already rid myself of one such financial drain this season by letting Burano go.

But the Betfair layers have suckered me in again with the price about Ninjago.

I am the fish.

It is easy to make a case out for him though, for all that I accept you could have a dozen stabs at this race and still come up empty-handed.

Admittedly, he didn't run up to his best when in midfield in the Wokingham last time and Richard Hughes has deserted him in favour of Intrinsic.

But that is why we are getting the price, and Ryan Moore is nobody's substitute.

Ninjago ran as well as ever at Newmarket on his reappearance though, and concentrate on his overall form in these big-field handicaps, which includes him coming from far too much off the pace when fifth in this race last year off the same mark, and we have a horse who will bag one of these sooner or later.

If Moore can get him settled nearer the pace - and what speed there is in the race is around him in centre field - then he could just persuade this bridle horse to put it in where it matters.

I am a massive fan of Muthmir and it wouldn't surprise me were he to bolt up under a 6lb penalty for his York win, as he tanks along like a Group-class sprinter in waiting.

There looks to be a lack of pace where he is situated in stall two though, and the forecast rain would certainly not be in his favour. Indeed, he has been withdrawn a few times when there has been cut in the ground.

If it remains on the fast side, he could well make his own running on the far side and sluice up, so I am not going to sit here and put you off.

But I reluctantly pass him over - he could win by two lengths on the far side and still not cop, and that possible overnight rain and on Saturday morning is a small concern - and Alben Star is another market leader that I can see going close.

He met all the trouble going at the Curragh last time - he would have won with a clear run - and a 1lb rise for that is very fair. And his Wokingham fourth last time and his fifth in this race two years ago are other big pluses.

At odds of 13.012/1, he is my idea as the best saver.

I like Barnet Fair at odds of 15.014/1 in the 32Red Consolation Cup at 14:05, though I do fear Run With Pride.

There is no big story with Barnet Fair. He is drawn near pace angle Hopes N Dreams on the far side, so that one will hopefully take him into the contest, and he races off the same mark as when an excellent second to Racy at Ascot last week.

The 6f trip is undoubtedly a concern as all his best recent form has been over the minimum trip but he does have big-field 6f handicap form and his recent run-style suggests to me that he is well worth another try at this trip. He will be coming fast and late again under talented 5lb claimer Cam Hardie.

The 14:40 looks an absolute minefield of a race, with a whole host of improving, unexposed, 3yo handicappers doing battle.

Rainbow Rock must have a big chance after his second over 1m2f here on Thursday, Kings Fete has been talked of a St Leger possible, and Second Step is another with a fair home reputation.

Throw in the likes of Satellite, and I am quickly reaching for the "pass" button in this race.

I am going to give Mango Diva a shot in the Nassau at 15:15 as I wasn't expecting her to be available at 6.25/1 and bigger.

Sir Michael Stoute took two horses out on Friday because of the ground, so she could be a non-runner if he still isn't satisfied with track conditions.

But if he lets her take her chance then this filly, back up to 1m2f after needing all of the 1m1f and Moore's brilliance to get her up on the line at the Curragh last time, could just surprise in what looks a pretty weak Group 1.

Stoute has no equals when bringing on these progressive, high class fillies, as he saw with Dank last season, and Integral this.

Nothing in the two Channel 4 races at Newmarket floats my boat, so you are on your own there. But, otherwise, I am glad to have been of some assistance this week.

Recommended Bets

Back Ninjago @ 20.019/1 or better - Goodwood 15:50
Back Alben Star @ 13.012/1 or better - Goodwood 15:50
Back Barnet Fair @ 15.014/1 or better - Goodwood 14:05
Back Mango Diva @ 6.25/1 or better - Goodwood 15:15