Friday Racing Tips: Back Astracad to draw the sting out of the speedsters

The big question for punters to ask themselves when looking at Friday's Cheltenham card is how soft will the going be.

It is officially good to soft at the time of writing, with 10-12mm of rain forecast before racing. But, as someone pointed out on Twitter this morning, the current going stick reading is 6.5, when it was 6.3 and heavy ground at a meeting there back in January.

So it will be very interesting to see how soft the riders report the ground to be after the first, if they do get the forecast rain. It could be a lot softer than currently advertised.

I am going to proceed on the basis of soft ground, and that brings to me to Astracad in the 13:50 at odds of 15.014/1 or bigger.

That may seem a touch strange given that his best recent efforts have been on much better ground, but he has won on soft and I think that he needs cut over this trip to slow the speedsters down a bit.

He has slipped down to a winnable mark, with the handicapper playing a further welcomed role in dropping him 1lb after a very fair fourth over 2m4f here last time. He is now 8lb lower than a good fourth in this race two years ago.

I expect his jockey to try and bounce him out and sit very handy, just as he did when second in the Old Roan last season - maybe sitting just behind Next Sensation - and aim to draw the sting out of the pure two-milers when pressing from two out. He invariably goes well here, too.

There are too many unknowns for me to get involved in an admittedly cracking novices' hurdle at 15:00, and the same is pretty much true of the novices chase at 14:25, although if the 145-rated Dell' Arca proves proficient over his fences I think he could just shake up clear form-choice Colour Squadron.

So no bets there, and I don't think I have ever had a punt in Cross Country race - not sober anyway - so I am hardly going to put up anything in the 15:35.

Away from the C4 cameras though, I think Morito Du Berlais is the one to beat in the 16:05.

He took connections by surprise when winning first time up at Exeter but unfortunately he will not go as unnoticed in the market today after that impressive win, so I am content to let him go unbacked in a much more competitive race. I wouldn't put anyone off him, though.

When a trainer thinks a handicap mark is "fair", as Nicholls says about this horse, then you can pretty much assume he thinks it is about 7lb well-in. But I am sure others with runners in here think the same, too.

In the opener at 13:15 I think Nicholls' former assistant Dan Skelton holds the key in the shape of Mister Grez at odds of 11.010/1.

Stamina is a concern for the horse, as the only time he has raced beyond 3m, here at the October meeting last year, he appeared not to last home and faded on the run-in. A lot of rain wouldn't be ideal either, as the combination of 3m1f and very testing ground would be a worry.

But he was running under a 6b penalty that day after a win just six days previously, so perhaps he found that race coming too soon for him rather than the trip, and I am more than willing to give him another chance after two good runs over 2m5f this season.

Recommended Bets
Back Astracad @ 15.014/1 or bigger 13:50 Cheltenham
Back Mister Grez @ 11.010/1 13:15 Cheltenham