Cheltenham Day One Tips: Time for Webber to have success with Rupert

Cheltenham 13:30 - Un Ace

There is always the temptation for punters to smash into the obvious in the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival, in order to boost confidence and, more importantly, the betting bank for the long four days ahead.

And also an understandable inclination for tipsters and pundits to side with the bleedin' obvious as a short-priced Supreme winner at least eradicates the horror Festival 0-from-27 scenario.

That is a genuine concern for columns like ours who tend to tip at big double-figure prices, and for whom embarrassing losing spells are part and parcel of the game - and it is true to say we are going through a dip at the moment.

But, just as we stayed true to the cause and rescued an Inglorious Goodwood with last-race BSP 41.01 winner Pal Of The Cat, so shall we stick with our same MO this week, win or lose.

That is not to say that there aren't betting opportunities at the top end of the market - and we will tip there as and when - and Irving and Vautour clearly have excellent claims, but I look at the Supreme and I see dangers everywhere in the 18-runner field.

And history tells you playing at short prices in this race is fraught with danger, as the horses at the top end of the market are racing in their most, helter-skelter, competitive environment to date, and get taken out of their comfort zone for the first time.

My Tent Or Yours was a beaten 15-8 favourite last year, and you have to go back to Brave Inca in 2004 to find the last winning jolly of the Supreme, with the likes of Dunguib chinned at odds-on, and the likes of Cue Card also beaten.

My main ante-post bet in the race was Vaniteux at 16-1 Non Runner No Bet - and I think he remains a fair bet and saver-material at odds of 13.525/2 tomorrow - but my fresh play in the race is Un Ace at 50.049/1 or bigger.

He has the best part of two stone to find with the principals on the form of his Doncaster win last month - indeed, he will be one of the lowest-rated horses in here - but he was ridiculously impressive that day.

He won by eight lengths but it was a name-your-distance job and, as connections observed, he would have won without coming off the bridle had he not made a mistake three out.

That was his first run for Kim Bailey - current connections bought him for what looks a bargain 65,000 guineas at the sales last May - and I think this horse could put him back in the big time.

His inexperience is a negative, but the quicker the ground the better for this horse, and his high cruising speed will hopefully stand him in good stead. And a trading option for those who like to leave an in-running lay up, too.

14:05 Arkle / 15:20 Champion Hurdle

I know everyone likes a punt in the big races, but I have been looking at the Arkle and Champion Hurdle for about two weeks now, and I am no nearer to having a firm opinion in such well-formed and established betting markets.

I would marginally favour Trifolium and Dodging Bullets against the field in the Arkle, bit not enough to put them up as bet-material at their current prices, and the same is true of the Champion Hurdle.

It doesn't help when you are a big fan of the first four in the betting, and none are bigger than 5.59/2, so I am going to have to watch what promises to be a cracker with no betting interest.

For those interested, Our Conor would get a very marginal call. He was incredibly weak in the betting when second in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time, and Dessie Hughes is a master of delivering on the big day, as he showed with back-to-back Champion Hurdle wins with Hardy Eustace in 2004 and 2005.

Cheltenham 16:00 - Lay Quevega

In the Mares Hurdle I will do what I do every year - namely lay Quevega at odds-on and lose!

In all seriousness, it has been some training feat for Willie Mullins to produce her on the day capable of winning five successive renewals, especially as she is such a hard horse to train.

She is head and shoulders above this lot on form but she is a 10yo now, had a small setback a fortnight ago, and I would much rather be a layer again at 1.910/11 and having the field running for me at around 11-10.

Cheltenham 14:40 - Time For Rupert

Along with Ted Veale, everyone had Holywell down as the "plot" horse for this year's Festival handicaps, but the handicapper got wise too and landed both horses with very harsh marks on what they have shown over fences.

But whereas the former has gone to the Arkle as a result, Holywell has continued down the handicap path in the Baylis and Harding, and he is very fairly treated on his hurdles form.

But I would rather look elsewhere for the winner and I can see a strong case for Hadrian's Approach if his jumping holds up - and again he rates saver-material at 11.521/2 - but my main selection in the race is a horse going in the opposite direction to Holywell in the handicap, Time For Rupert.

Runner-up to Big Buck's in the 2010 World Hurdle, he looked like being a dominant force on the chasing front before being beaten in the RSA here in 2011, and has generally not confirmed his one-time, sky-high potential.

But he has pieces of form - notably a fifth in the 2012 Gold Cup - which makes him an exceptionally handicapped horse off 138, and he showed a lot more when second to a well-handicapped Tranquil Sea off this mark at Doncaster last time.

The drying ground won't be an issue for him, and I can't let him go unbacked at odds of 18.017/1 or better, even if his jumping is a concern. He would carry and beat these at his best.

Cheltenham 16:40 - Firm Order

I actually give Paul Webber a fair outside shot of another winner in the shape of Firm Order after his front-running third to Holywell at Doncaster last time, and he is worth a small-stakes nibble at odds of 50.049/1 or better in the National Hunt Chase.

That race was run in a fair time, he looks a grinder who will be suited by a quieter ride here than he got at Doncaster, is a good ground horse, and he could outrun his massive odds against the three admittedly solid market-leaders.

Cheltenham 17:15 - Present View

There look to be a few in the last who have been teed up for this novice handicap chase - Close House springs to mind off 135 - but my advice is to "keep it simple, stupid" this time and side with Present View. Back him at odds of 10.519/2 or better.

Jamie Snowden reckons sending him chasing has "made a man of him" and he certainly looked full of testosterone when bolting up by 10 lengths at Kempton last time.

The runner-up had looked a very progressive horse beforehand, so an 11lb rise in the weights was more than warranted, and I expect him to go very close.

Selections

Back Un Ace at 50.049/1 - 13:30
Back Vaniteux at 14.527/2 - 13:30
Back Time For Rupert at 18.017/1 - 14:40
Back Hadrian's Approach at 11.521/2 - 14:40
Lay Quevega at 1.910/11 - 16:00
Back Firm Order at 50.049/1 - 16:40
Back Present View at 10.519/2 - 17:15