Saturday Racing Tips: Back Eton to give his rivals a lesson in the sprint

I was going to make a glib comment that any reference to privileged public schools would look out of place when assessing the qualities needed to shine in what will be Passchendaele-like conditions at Ascot on Saturday - and then the Watford Grammar School education kicked in.

World War One is an abiding passion of mine - give me a time machine and I'd take it back to the Somme on July 1, 1916, awaiting that dreaded whistle - and it is a little-heralded fact that the classroom "elite" suffered disproportionately in the Great War.

The nine major public schools all recorded casualty rates of around 20% - a pretty staggering number - and 1,157 of them came from Eton alone, and Cheltenham 675.

The lost generation, indeed.

So let's forget the miss-characterisation and get straight into the reasons why Eton Forever rates an excellent bet at odds of 23.022/1 or better in the sprint at 14:20.

I don't think there is any doubt whatsoever that the ground will be riding desperately heavy at Ascot - indeed Timeform's David Johnson tweeted that Thursday's going stick reading on the round course were deeper than when racing was abandoned in 2012 - and you are going to need horses that stay all day. And then some.

And that is where the Eton Forever angle kicks in.

He has actually never raced over 6f, racing exclusively over 7f/1m in his 19 starts since 2010, but that proven stamina is very much in his favour. This will not be a test of speed.

He clearly has a bit to find with some of these on form but the ground will be a great leveller and he has been in good form over 7f this season.

Couple that with the fact that he goes well at this course and revels in the mud - indeed, arguably his career-best performance came when winning the Buckingham Palace Stakes off a mark of 103 over 7f on soft ground at the 2012 Royal meeting - and we have a bet at the odds.

The 2m race that opens the card at 13:45 is a very competitive-looking race and you can make a case of sorts for all of the field.

But Whiplash Willie has been waiting for ground this heavy all season and I think he is worth a small-stakes interest at 10.519/2 or better.

He was off the track for over three years with tendon troubles and as a result he needs deep ground to show his best. With that in mind, his last two efforts on ground faster than ideal have been very creditable. I can see him grinding his way up the straight to nail this contest.

The Fillies & Mares Stakes at 14:55 really is a toss-up - 6lb covers all bar one of the field on official ratings - and, as I won't be having a bet, I can hardly put up a selection here.

If forced I would side with last week's impressive Newmarket scorer Albasharah, and she has form in the soft, too. But I can't get too excited by odds of around 6-1 in this line-up.

I am going to take a flier with Kingsbarns at odds of 19.018/1 or better in the QEII at 15:30.

The world looked to be his oyster - stupid phrase, but I have written it now - when he cruised home in the Racing Post Trophy in the soft two years ago, only for it quickly to unravel at 3yo.

But by all accounts the stable have not given up on him just yet - they fancied him to run a big race when a non-stayer in the Foy last time, as he had been showing plenty of zip at home - and the return to this race on bottomless ground could suit him.

Indeed, he recorded his best effort since his juvenile days when just ¾ length behind Top Notch Tonto when third in this race on soft ground last year, and this race doesn't have any stand-out performer to my eye. The formbook says he has his optimum conditions here, so let's give him one more chance.

Talking of one last chance, I am backing Fort Bastion in the last. Again. And if I am, so you are too. Support him at odds of 26.025/1 or better in the 16:45. Yes, I know, I am predictable.

He was with David O'Meara less than a week before his run over 7f here last time, where he lost all chance when swerving coming out of the stalls and giving the field a five-length start. In the circumstances, I thought he shaped pretty well in midfield there.

The superb O'Meara has had another fortnight to try and crack the enigma that is Fort Bastion, and has now reached for the cheekpieces.

If he has been sweetened up, then Fort Bastion has definite chances off this mark on a track that he has gone well at in the past, and I want Danny Tudhope to get hold of him and make the horse's mind up for him.

I'm probably going over the cliff edge, into the sea and over the horizon with this beast, but at 25-1+ I am taking my chances on the O'Meara magic.

Levitate is my idea of the likeliest winner but I have to throw a second dart in this as I wasn't expecting Farlow to be trading at 42.041/1 after creeping in near the bottom of the weights.

He returned to form over 7f at Ayr last time, he has soft ground form in a big 1m handicap - he was fourth in the Spring Mile earlier in the season - and he caught the eye when fifth at Epsom in June off a 3lb higher mark.

This is ridiculously competitive but he is no 40-1+ poke.

I can't get too excited by the Champion Stakes at 16:05 as I think Cirrus Des Aigles will win, and it wouldn't be a big surprise if Free Eagle doesn't run if the rain persists. So no bet for me.

Be lucky.

Recommended Bets

Back Whiplash Willie @ 10.519/2 in the 13.45 Ascot
Back Eton Forever @ 23.022/1 in the 14:20 Ascot
Back Kingsbarns @ 19.018/1 in the 15:30 Ascot
Back Fort Bastion @ [26.0 ] in the 16:45 Ascot
Back Farlow @ 42.041/1 in the 16:45 Ascot