Thursday Racing Tips: Rhys Williams is aiming to be back with a bang in the Bowl

• Ahoy Senor could get a solo in front

• Conflated has a solid profile

• Reverse forecast appeals in the Bowl

Doubts over rivals creates opportunity

Aintree 14:55: Ahoy Senor/Conflated 0.5pt reverse forecast

Only five line up in the Aintree Bowl and Shishkin heads the market as he once again steps up in trip. He did well to finish second in the Ryanair considering he was never travelling or jumping well but there's the obvious concern that he will do that again.

Last season's Gold Cup winner, A Plus Tard, has had a very disappointing season so far. He was reported to have never been travelling when pulling up in the Betfair Chase and he was pulled up again in the Gold Cup. He was still going ok but had lost his position before being hampered at 6 out and couldn't get back in touch. It's difficult to be sure exactly what to expect from him at the moment.

With both of those horses having something to prove, I'm taking the option of playing a reverse forecast with their two main rivals. Ahoy Senor won over C&D at this meeting last season and while he's had an inconsistent season, I think he has a chance to show his best today. He's likely to be able to make the running without much pressure and that should help his jumping. Although he fell last time in the Gold Cup, it was encouraging that up until that point he had jumped more convincingly and straighter than is usually the case and the ground is ideal for him. There is the slight worry that the fall could have dented his confidence but hopefully that won't be the case and he will set a good target for the others to try to catch.

Conflated was beaten a length by Clan Des Obeaux in this race last season and he comes into this on the back of a very good run in the Gold Cup. His jumping gradually warmed up as the race went on and he was still travelling well approaching the final bend but he got trapped in behind horses early in the home straight and had to be switched wide. He couldn't challenge the front pair and was tired on the run in but held on to third place.

I think the slight drop back in trip and the small field will suit him and he could get a good trip tracking Ahoy Senor.

If Shishkin or A Plus Tard turn up at their best then one of them will very likely win but given the doubts over that happening and the likely payoff if neither run up to their best then I think the reverse forecast on Ahoy Senor and Conflated is the most appealing way to play this race.