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Soft and possibly Heavy ground set for Champions Day at Ascot
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Economics and Calandagan can't be split in Champion Stakes market
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Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict just goes to the English runner
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Ryan Moore Superboost
Ryan Moore rides the brilliant stayer Kyprios in the opening race at Ascot on British Champions Day (13:20), and the horse is unbeaten so far this season, winning all six starts by at least one length.
The Betfair Sporstbook have super-boosted Kyprios's price to win again today by at least one length from 4/51.80 to 5/42.25. To take advantage of this price just click on the odd in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.
Back Kyprios to Win by 1+ lengths in 13:20 Ascot
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Soft ground at the very least on Champions Day
British Flat racings last big bash of the year takes place at Ascot on Saturday in the form of British Champions Day. This will be the 14th time it has taken place and in that time it has produced its share of iconic moments and performances.
What has proven to be a consistent feature of the meeting, albeit an unsurprising one in mid-October, is that the ground has tended to be on the softer side of good and has often been testing. That is set to be the case this year with the races run on the round track already having been switched to the inside track which is used for jump racing. With more rain due on Friday night into Saturday, one can be sure that the ground will be at least soft if not heavy.
The switch to the inside track has been made with the intention of racing on the least testing ground available, but it does change the character of the races run on it as it is a tighter track which will alter emphasises on draw and early position.
A below average pace a possibility
The main event on the card is the QIPCO Champion Stakes (15:55) and the testing ground hasn't deterred the participation of what is a serious field of contenders headed by the William Haggas-trained Economics and the Francis-Henri Graffard-trained Calandagan.
First of all, we'll have a look at how the shape of the race looks on paper in terms of likely pace.
Los Angeles (10) took advantage of a lack of pace when making the running in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe last time. He returns to a shorter trip here and is likely to want to be forward again, but his wide draw might make it challenging for him to get to the lead in an energy-efficient at this trip. Royal Rhyme (2) has been racing prominently and helped push the pace in the Juddmonte International, so he is likely to be at least prominent here.
Continuous (8) hasn't had a consistent run style, but had been ridden more forwardly in his two starts prior to being dropped in when contesting the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe last time. A return to more forward tactics back over this shorter trip can be expected, but it seems unlikely that they will want to make the running with him.
Iresine (4) has generally been held up, but was ridden prominently when winning a five-runner Group 2 over a mile-and-a-half last time. He seems unlikely to contribute to the early pace. King's Gambit (11) dropped in when stepped up to a mile-and-a-half last time and while he might want to be handier back over this shorter trip, he is unlikely to want to risk getting caught wide from his draw and is likely to take a slot.
To sum all of that up, once again the lack of pace makers in a top-class race might well have a detrimental impact on the run of the race. Los Angeles (10) is the only one that could be considered a solid candidate to lead, but Ryan Moore is likely to be wary of bursting him by having to ask for more effort than ideal to get across to the lead from his wide draw. The track starts to turn relatively soon after the start and Moore will have to make an early judgement call based on how sharp his horse is and what's happening inside him as to whether shooting for the lead is worth the effort it costs him.
If Los Angeles doesn't get to the lead, it might well be Royal Rhyme (2) that takes the field along from his good draw, but he is unlikely to go any quicker than he needs to and the pace might well end up being below-average.
More natural improvement still to come from Economics
Now, to the contenders. The William Haggas-trained Economics announced his arrival into the public consciousness with a powerful winning display in the Dante Stakes, beating Ancient Wisdom by an impressive six-length margin. While there was some concern about him having bled from the nose in the immediate aftermath of the race, it was put forward that it may have been a consequence of him banging his head on the stalls before they opened. It isn't an issue that has arisen since.
The son of Night Of Thunder was immediately considered a potential leading contender for the Derby, but his connections had taken a view that the race wouldn't suit him and scratched him from the race at the most recent entry stage. While there may have been some temptation to supplement him back into the race, William Haggas and Shaikh Isa Salman Al Khalifa stood by their judgement and left him on the sidelines.
Economics made his next outing in Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville in August and he didn't disappoint. Having needed to take back from his widest draw to avoid getting caught wide with no cover, he needed to be niggled along slightly from halfway and came under a ride not far inside the three-furlong pole. His progress into the race was steady from that point until the afterburners kicked in over the final 100 yards and he powered away to beat Jayarebe by two lengths.
That performance set him up for his first shot at Group 1 company in no less than the Irish Champions Stakes at Leopardstown.
In what was a riveting content in tactical terms, Tom Marquand sacrificed some fuel and track position by charting a three-wide-no-cover path and make early headway to get ahead of his main rival Auguste Rodin. Ridden with two-and-a-half furlongs to run, he stayed on steadily and looked set to be overtaken by Auguste Rodin inside the final furlong, but again he engaged the afterburners to rally and fight off that strong challenge by a neck in what was a fabulous horse race.
If it hadn't been believed prior to Leopardstown, Economics emerged from that epic contest acknowledged as a world-class performer. Still low mileage, he could conceivably find natural improvement from what was the first battle of his life at Leopardstown. The softer ground is something of an unknown for him at this level, but there is encouragement from both his pedigree and action that he will be fully effective on it.
In terms of how they ride Economics, Marquand is unlikely to want to be too far back in the field given the uncertain pace scenario. He has started on pretty much even terms in his last two starts and I could see him being asked to go forward and slot in behind the leaders.
Fair concerns over Calandagan's chance
The main rival to Economic is Calandagan. The gelding leapt into the public consciousness when coming from the rear to run out the very impressive winner of the King Ebward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. While his opposition might not have been tip-top that day, that certainly wasn't an issue on his next start as he contested a red-hot renewal of the Juddmonte International at York.
Held up in mid-division with the pace being set by the eventual winner City Of Troy, he had to make up his ground widest of all and used plenty of fuel to get into a challenging position. Having looked like he might make it very interesting, he was out-muscled late and finished a length second to City Of Troy, well clear of the rest. It represented a career-best effort and the path he had to chart raised hopes that he might do even better in future.
That brings Calandagan to Ascot. He has plenty of form on soft ground earlier this season, so that shouldn't be a concern. However, the potential run of the race is an issue. He is drawn in stall one and has been ridden with patience in his last two runs. It would be a brave move to change tactics to go back to the more forward tactics he employed earlier in his career on a stage such as this, but if he does drop in from stall one, he could end up poorly positioned in a race that might well be run at a below-average pace. That creates a fair degree of concern regarding his chance.
Economics gets the verdict
While there is always scope for an unexpected outcome on testing ground at the backend of the season, Economics is sufficiently low mileage this year to raise strong hopes that he will be able to produce his best on the day.
The shape of the race appeals as being more likely to suit him than Calandagan and that is enough to swing the argument in his favour in my mind at least. Buckle up, it promises to be a cracker.
Back Economics to Win the Champions Stakes (Ascot, 15:55)
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