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Daryl heads to Hamilton for his NAP
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Says Cold Stare can get back to winning ways under optimal conditions
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Fox Journey down in grade can pounce
15:15 Haydock - Back Cold Stare @ BSP 2pt win
On the back of a fast-finishing effort at Ayr - backed up by the sectional timings - it's worth siding with the well-treated Cold Stare - 2/13.00 currently on the Betfair Sportsbook - to gain his first victory since 2021.
David O'Meara took this race last year with an older horse, and Cold Stare gave the firm impression that he is ready to strike, having clocked the fastest final four furlongs at Ayr, and he did the best of those from off the pace behind an unexposed rival.
He had hinted at a revival at the same venue last month when continuously denied a clear run over today's distance of six furlongs so the drop back in trip is of little concern. The return to Haydock today, where he is a three-time course winner, including over course and distance, means he is of firm interest on his third attempt in Class 5 company.
The handicapper has given him a chance by leaving him on the same mark as his last two outings, and Mark Winn's three pounds claim only enhances his chances with ground conditions (soft, heavy in places) firmly in his favour.
His last effort at this venue under today's conditions saw him second off 76 when one pound out of the handicap in a Class 3 event when touched off by the progressive Sterling Knight (93), and his previous effort here on soft ground resulted in that victory in 2021 when rated 85.
He has optimal conditions to strike, and while he may not be the force of old, he has proven this rating is well within his grasp and today rates a cracking opportunity.
Back him no shorter than 11/43.75. His current 2/1 looks mighty short, and there's little chance he goes off at that price, given his career shortest BSP has been 3.39/4, so hold fire. Danzart is feared the most and was better than the bare result the last twice.
15:35 Newbury - Back Fox Journey @ BSP 1pt
Fox Journey - 15/82.88 currently on the Betfair Sportsbook - must be frustrating connections, but holding him up might be the key to unlocking his talent because this mark of 85 is clearly well within reach on the balance of his form.
He is very unexposed and was a big eye-catcher here at Newbury on debut over seven furlongs before improving in defeat at Nottingham behind Artistic Star (106), Westerton (93) and Like A Tiger (92) in his two-year-old season.
He caught the eye under tender handling at Kempton on his final handicap qualifying run before making a winning handicap debut on his seasonal return at Newmarket in a race that worked well. The second, fourth and fifth were all subsequent winners.
He ran a fine race in a hot Class 2 handicap at the Epsom Derby meeting when rallying on the inside of the rail only to find the door closed on him inside the final furlong. He would have finished much closer to the winner Torito (subsequently fourth in the Group 3 Hampton Court and rated 105), while the runner-up and the third have both scored next time out.
He was given far too much to do at Pontefract last time when dropped in grade into a Class 3 when a beaten 15/8f, but that effort deserves a big upgrade as he finished with a rattle and the second - who was well placed in a slowly run race - won the always hot Class 2 Old Newton Cup at Haydock next time.
Today's contest is far away from the abovementioned races as he drops further in grade into a Class 4 and receives a whopping 11 pounds weight for age allowance.
He is unexposed, remains firmly on the upgrade, and is favoured over Dasho Lennie. He makes plenty of appeal at 2/13.00 or bigger, but his current 15/8 is short enough, and I expect support for one or two others.
19:05 Hamilton - Back Khunan @ 11/26.50 2pt win (NAP)
Khunan - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - bounced right back to form on his second start after a gelding operation and would have likely won behind our winner Significantly at Haydock last time if on the favoured side of the track.
This well-handicapped four-year-old looks worth keeping on the right side of and could easily turn out to be an Ayr Gold/Silver Cup horse.
Richard Fahey's four-year-old was out of form in four starts in Bahrain earlier this year. As a result, the handicapper remarkably dropped him from a rating of 92 down to 78.
Although his seasonal return showed some promise, he has valid excuses for his all-weather return on his first start after a gelding operation. He proved the assessor had made a mistake at Haydock when improving significantly the second time out when he bumped into a fellow well-handicapped rival, having pulled well clear of the remainder.
The time figure was excellent, and the well-beaten fifth has already boosted the form, and the RPR he recorded of 93 suggests he is well ahead of his mark of 81.
He now looks ready to strike and has already proven himself on ground with soft in the going description as a two-year-old when second to the smart Angel Bleu (111) and ahead of Lusail (109) at Pontefract, he makes stacks of appeal today.
He has been rated as high as 107 with a top RPR of 103, and he won't need to run anywhere near that to make this a return to the winner's enclosure off of 81 should this visor that has sparked him back to life continue to work. He looks the best-handicapped horse in the race by some margin and should take all the beating.
Back him no shorter than 3/14.00.
Read Al Dudman's Daily Double Tips here.
Recommended bets
Back Cold Stare to win the 15:15 at Haydock @ BSP 2pt win
DARYL'S P/L
Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly
Advised Stakes = +74pts ROI 10%
SP = -14.1pts ROI -2%
BSP = +119.7Ppts ROI +17.06%