Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Hamish and Hills the two to back at Newmarket

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter says Hamish is impossible to oppose.

Newmarket's exceptional July meeting kicks off on Thursday, and Daryl Carter has reviewed the four ITV Races and offers three selections for followers...


13:50 Newmarket - No Bet

Ancient Wisdom 11/102.11 looks like a fair price to kick the meeting off in style for Charlie Appleby and William Buick, now under optimal conditions with his sights lowered. The three-year-old has done little wrong this term, shaping in need of the outing on a surface too quick at York before having genuine excuses in the Epsom Derby.

The Epsom Derby run can have a line entirely put through it. His action suggested before the race that he would never enjoy such a track, and connections rolled the dice, having lost both of their Derby hopes to injury earlier in the year. Still, surprisingly, he went off at just 6/17.00 for the Epsom showpiece, but today's scenario will see him in a far better light.

He holds a perfect record at Newmarket, including here on the July course, and the rain this week has kept soft in the going description. His high knee action suggests an easier surface is paramount for him to be at his best, and all looks in place for a big effort. He rates well clear on ratings with the possibility of improvement to follow, and while his stamina is not proven, he should appreciate this trip under today's conditions on pedigree.

This race looks like a weak renewal of the Bahrain Trophy, but Space Legend is going the right way, and he could improve further. However, seeing him so easily brushed aside by what could admittedly be a special winner at Ascot was deflating. He should also appreciate today's softer surface, and this looks like a match race.

It's tough to split the pair, but these are optimal conditions for the Godolphin horse.

I sway in his favour, and if you like him, the advice is to hold out and let money come for the Haggas horse that will surely go off favourite. I may play this race late in the day.


14:25 Newmarket - No Bet

Whistlejacket was a criminally short price at Royal Ascot. Still, he shaped better than I thought he would, so I have no qualms about him being a soft favourite here, but there are not enough positives to make him a 6/42.50 chance in my book. He is stepping back up in trip after his trainer commented on how much "speed" he had when taking up the five-furlong option at the Royal meeting, and it's challenging to make a convincing claim on the bare form, particularly as Electrolyte's second in the Coventry Stakes looks like a more robust line through Cowardofthecounty.

A further concern about the favourites' price comes as the excellent Windsor Castle winner Ain't Nobody should enjoy this move up in distance, and he was an impressive winner at Ascot.

This is a competitive affair, so I am happy to let it go, but if pushed, I would side with Electrolyte.


15:00 Newmarket - Back Zabriskie Point @ 16/117.00 1pt e/w (5 places)

Since 2018, the winners of this race had finished first or second last time out, and all of the last ten were beaten less than four lengths on their previous start while one had made their season return. Further trends suggest you want to look for a horse carrying less than nine stone, and only one horse fits that criterion - Sergeant Wilko. Still, it's tough to make a strong case for him on the bare form, and he has not faired so well when unable to make the running, so it begs the question of whether this bigger field will suit him. He will need to take a big step forward from his victory at Leicester 45 days ago, but is not dismissed lightly.

There were few excuses for Elmonjed at York last time, and perhaps away from that venue, he might fare better, but his price is now short at 9/25.50, and looking elsewhere to utilize the five places seems the correct play.

Tropical Island, Woodhay Wonder, Dorney Lake, and Dark Vintage must prove they can cope with soft ground. Thunder Blue has a handicap in him, but his sectionals point to it as being over five furlongs.

One of the more interesting runners is Zabriskie Point - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook -who may have seen his last run in Group 3 company coming too quickly ten days on from his soft ground Thirsk Novice victory at the back end of last term. He was outpaced on fast ground on the Rowley Mile on that occasion, but it's worth being forgiving of that effort.

Last season, he showed that he handles soft ground very well and should relish this stiff six furlongs being by Blue Point with plenty of stamina on the Dam side. He was a race-by-race improver last season, and connections had a return handicap winner last week with Cicero's Gift under the handling of Billy Loughnane, so perhaps the jockey booking is again significant.

He looks fairly treated on the balance of his form, particularly with his running-on neck third to Jubilee Walk at Salisbury last year - the winner went off favourite for the Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes at Royal Ascot recently and was only beaten three lengths off 97. Considering the selection attempted to give the Salisbury winner a seven-pound penalty, a mark of 93 doesn't look beyond him if he is fit first time out.

The ground may swing things in his favour over the progressive Woodhay Wonder, and 16/117.00 or bigger is a fair each-way price. Take no shorter than 12/113.00.


15:35 Newmarket - Back Hamish @ 11/102.11 3pt

Hamish - 11/102.11 on the Betfair Sportsbook - should be odds-on for this weak renewal of the Princess Of Wales's Stakes following an excellent effort in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom when unfavoured by his racing position and only narrowly going down to one that had the run of the race. That is the best middle-distance form on offer by a distance, and he has ground conditions firmly in his favour.

Hamish can also boast a victory on the undulations of Newmarket--a track sure to be detrimental to the chances of his primary market rival, Arrest. At the same time, he is impossible to oppose in receipt of weight from Giavellotto and Outbox.

William Haggas' runner has proven to be a model of consistency. Although he has yet to win at this level, he has twice been a narrow runner-up in Group 1 company. There is plenty to like about this placing by connections, and it's only a matter of time before he lands at least a Group 2 contest.

He ticks the track, trip, form and ground boxes and should be a firm odds-on chance here. 11/102.11 or bigger looks like a fair price for a horse, clear on ratings and under optimal conditions. I always like to stake delicately regarding horses at the head of the market, but I rate him as solid as a bet at the prices, as you will see. 10/111.91 or bigger is acceptable.

Giavelotto is over the wrong distance, but he boasts a commanding victory here and is feared the most, although the ground may not prove ideal.


16:55 Doncaster - Back Teraabb @ BSP 1pt

This is a good race, but Teraabb is certainly a horse ahead of the handicapper, and he is worth another chance after things went as bad as they could go at Chester last time.

The three-year-old was very well supported in the market before taking a walk as the rain continued to poor, but he clipped heels inside the first furlong and lost his footing, almost coming down, which would have knocked him off his stride. At the same time, the bucket load of rain turning the ground soft would not have helped his cause, which was indicated by the market, nor was being on the churned-up inside rail on a day when all of the winners shunned the inside rail and won on the far side of the track.

Today, he drops from a Class 2 race into a Class 4, returns to a sounder surface, and receives an eight-pound weight-for-age allowance. The form of his Newbury victory on his seasonal return and his two runs at Lingfield and Yarmouth last season suggest we have yet to see the best of him, and today looks like a good opportunity.

So Logical is better than she showed under a shocking ride at Kempton last time, and Robert Havlin taking over in the saddle is a big positive, so she is feared most. Her bare form is just as potent as the selection, if not slightly stronger. However, she was advantaged when accumulating that form.

11/26.50 or bigger is acceptable, but he has been a fair price at BSP for his recent runs, so I expect no shorter than 6.05/1.


Now Read: Ryan Moore: Good chances among my five Thursday rides at Newmarket July Festival


Recommended bets

DARYL CARTER'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) AUG 1st

2024 P/L = +76.04 ROI 12.81%

BSP P/L = +62.9 ROI 10.60%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +4

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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